DraftKings Early MLB Picks For May 14
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For May 14
There are six games in the early tournament today, so that means a lot of stats to go through, and a lot of tough decisions to make. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Matt Andriese has little experience against the A’s, and it isn’t good. They are 5-8 off of him. Justin Nicolino also has a limited history against the Nationals.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jake Arrieta ($12,600): It is no surprise to find Arrieta as the top of nearly every list. It is also no surprise that the stats back it up. The Pirates are hitting only .221 in 136 at bats with a homer, seven RBI, and 30 strikeouts. Did I mention the Cubs get to face Jeff Locke? This looks like a big day for Arrieta.
Jose Quintana ($10,600): Yes, he is playing the Yankees, but Quintana has dominated the Yankees in his career. The Yanks are hitting a pathetic .115 off of him in 52 at bats with just one RBI and 11 strikeouts. He could put up numbers close to Arrieta and give you $2,000 to spend elsewhere.
Honorable Mention:
Corey Kluber ($11,400): Kluber has held the Twins to a .220 average in 218 at bats, but he has also allowed eight home runs and 23 RBI. So why is he still here? He has piled up 71 strikeouts, which is just a shade over one every three batters. He may give up a couple of long balls, but he will also strike out enough to give you decent points.
Clay Buchholz ($7,500): Buchholz gave up five runs in his first start against Houston this year, but his career stats against them are still good. The Astros are still only hitting .184 against him in 114 at bats with three homers, nine RBI, and 31 strikeouts. Buchholz is still a risk though. His ERA is near 6.
Dark Horses:
Ervin Santana ($7,000): His career numbers against Cleveland are solid. The Indians are hitting .236 against him in 220 at bats with seven homers, 27 RBI, and 52 strikeouts. The bad thing here for Santana is the matchup? Can he beat Kluber? This tempers his upside.
Kendall Graveman ($6,100): Graveman has held the Rays to a .148 average in 27 at bats with no runs, but only four strikeouts. If you are looking to spend on hitting Graveman has a great track record against a light-hitting team. You could do much worse.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Yes, I would stack a couple of Twins against Kluber. Someone had to hit all of those home runs, and they are worth chasing. Oswaldo Arcia ($3,300) is 5-19(.263) with a solo shot off of Kluber. Joe Mauer ($3,200) is 11-39(.282) with five walks, three doubles, a triple, two home runs, and four RBI against Kluber. Trevor Plouffe ($3,300) is 12-39(.308) with two doubles, three home runs, and an impressive 10 RBI against Kluber.
Tanner Roark hasn’t fared very well against the Marlins so far in his career. Derek Dietrich ($3,300) is 2-8, but he does have a homer and three RBI. Martin Prado ($3,300) is 7-15(.467) with a walk, a homer, and five RBI. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500) is 5-17(.294) with three walks, a double, two home runs, and three RBI off Roark. J.T. Realmuto ($3,100) is worth playing if he plays. He is 5-10 with a pair of RBI against Roark.
Cleveland and Minnesota could be a high scoring game again. Yan Gomes ($3,300) is 2-7 with a homer and two RBI against Ervin Santana. Mike Napoli ($3,500) is 7-19(.368) with two walks, three doubles, three homers, and ten RBI against Ervin. Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, and Marlon Byrd have also taken Santana deep, even though they haven’t hit him well otherwise.
You should stack against Jeff Locke at Wrigley. Dexter Fowler ($5,100) is 4-9 with two walks and three RBI. Jason Heyward ($3,600) is 7-19(.368) with two walks, a double, and four RBI. Javier Baez ($3,200) has a two run homer in three at bats. Anthony Rizzo ($5,100) is 7-20(.350) with three walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI off Locke.
Next: More Notes For 5-14
Just because Jake Arrieta is on the mound doesn’t mean every Pirate is off limits. One in particular has hit him well. Matt Joyce ($2,600) is 7-17(.412 with two walks, two doubles, a home run, and four RBI against the Cubs ace.
Collin McHugh should look out for Mookie Betts ($4,900) and Xander Bogaerts ($4,400). Betts is 4-5 with a walk, two doubles, a triple, and three RBI against McHugh. Bogaerts is 5-11(.455) with a walk, two doubles, and four RBI. For good measure, Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4,000) is 3-4 with a double against McHugh.
Not many White Sox have a history against Ivan Nova, but the ones that do have good ones. Melky Cabrera ($3,500) is 7-12(.583) with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Nova. Austin Jackson ($3,300) is 8-14(.571) with a walk, three doubles, and three RBI. Brett Lawrie ($3,900) is only 3-11, but he does have a homer and two driven in.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play an FanDuel without them!
Next: Tips For Doing Your Best In Daily Fantasy Sports
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for the NBA playoffs and FanDuel baseball!