MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 14
MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 14
Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook!
Saturday presents the usual multi-slate/all-day options with games 6 games on the “early” slate kicking off at 1:05PM EST and another 10 games starting at 7:05PM EST on the “main slate.”
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 248.3 | $ 8,493 | 24% | 76% | $ 3,313 | 7.09 |
| 5 Day | 261.6 | $ 9,558 | 27% | 73% | $ 3,180 | 7.47 |
| Prev Day | 252.1 | $ 7,900 | 23% | 77% | $ 3,388 | 7.20 |
I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level!
Now on to the picks…
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Jose Quintana ($9,200) EARLY – With Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg on the hill in the early slate I expect most gamers will pay up for the “name” studs, but I will happily take the $2k-$3k discount on an ace that has been every bit as good as those two. Year to date, Quintana is averaging 43.14 points per game and over his last 5 starts has exceeded 45 points in 4 of them. Over the last 15 days, Quintana is averaging 46.5 points per start, just 0.5 points behind Strasburg and and 7.5 points ahead of Arrieta. The fact that Quintana has delivered consistent near 5x value this season makes him my top starting pitcher on this slate from a point per dollar perspective. The matchup against the Yankees is one to exploit as well as the majority of the Yankee lefty bats will be neutralized by Quintana and the fact the Yankees are only batting .240 against LHP this season should set Quintana and his 24% K rate up for a big day.
Aaron Nola ($8,400) – MAIN – The night slate does not have the some top end options which is fine if you want to load up on Coors Field bats. Nola is the top option on this slate on this slate with a home matchup against the Reds who he has already faced once this year and put up 42 fantasy points while striking out 8 batters in a no decision. Nola is averaging 4.4x value this season and over the last two weeks has seen his per game average jump to 39 ppg and has two 50+ point outing in his last 4 starts. He is my top start in the main slate and although he may be chalky, I am fine playing it safe here and differentiating elsewhere.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Top Hitters/Stacks
Chicago Cubs versus LHP Jeff Locke – EARLY – The Cubs not only have the highest projected run total on the early slate, but surprisingly even with a game in Coors, take that honor on the all dat slate as well. The Cubs have teed off on Locke in the past with 5 home runs and 21 runs scored in only 80 innings and I expect that trend to continue Saturday. Anthony Rizzo ($4,800) has hammered Locke in his career going 7-20 with 3 home runs and is my top hitter on the early slate. The beauty of saving at SP is you can also load up Ben Zobrist ($4,100) who is averaging 18 ppg over the last 2 weeks and Kris Bryant ($4,400) who is averaging 12 points per game in the same time period.
Coors Field – MAIN – The late slate’s top scoring teams are not surprisingly found in Colorado as both the Mets and Rockies are projected to score over 5 runs each. With marginal right handers on the mound in Logan Verrett and Eddie Butler, the left handed bats from both sides make for great dual stacks. Lucas Duda ($3,800) is one of the streakiest home runs hitters and is capable of a multi home run game at any moment and at a sub 4k price point, I want as much exposure as I can get to him in this game. The left handed bats in the Rockies lineup including Carlos Gonzalez ($4,000) & Gerardo Parra ($4,300) make for a great mini stack as well!
Cheslor Cutherbert ($2,100) – MAIN – So far I have told you to play some of the best hitters in baseball – not exactly groundbreaking stuff. So here is one play I have been using daily and recommend you get on board while the price is so low. Cuthbert has been the everyday 3B for the Royals since Mike Moustakas went down with injury and is averaging 9.3 points per game hitting typically in the 7th spot in the lineup putting up 4.4x value which is exceptional for a punt play!
Next: FanDuel Second Base Progression
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!