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FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 15th

By Matt Rogers

May 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon (70) stands in the dugout before the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
May 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon (70) stands in the dugout before the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 14, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; A general view as Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Mike Wright (59) pitches to Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; A general view as Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Mike Wright (59) pitches to Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 15th

Welcome to FanDuel Economics!  This is the MLB Picks May 15th edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

The MLB schedule is packed full with all 30 teams in action, again, today.  The vast majority of games are starting between 1:05pm ET and 4:10pm ET.  The only exception is the weekly Sunday Night game.  This Sunday Night, we’ll seem Mike Leake and the St. Louis Cardinals in Los Angeles against Alex Wood and the Dodgers.  There are multiple FanDuel timing options throughout the day, with the ‘Main’ option all inclusive of each game.  Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:

  • 1:05pm ET (Main)
  • 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
  • 2:10pm ET (Express)
  • 4:10pm ET (Late)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder.  The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.  Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

May 9, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez (41) throws to the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of their MLB baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
May 9, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez (41) throws to the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of their MLB baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers

Aaron Sanchez (3:05pm ET) continues to quietly perform well this season without his salary climbing significantly.  Aaron is the type of player I look for each day, consistently performs well but it’s too expensive so I can afford the big hitters in some other lineup picks.  Sanchez isn’t without risk, however.  On April 22, after an early season surge, Aaron had a rough outing against the A’s, yielding only 4 points.  But, in Boston, Tampa, and San Francisco Sanchez had 51, 51, and 45 points respectively against some of the best hitting lineups in baseball.  Aaron is getting 5-6 strikeouts a game, which is solid, but he’s also getting 2-3 walks per game providing earned run, negative points risk.  For the season, Sanchez is averaging 35.7 PPG.  With a $7,400 salary today he’s bringing a 4.8X value to the mound.  Aaron is by far the best value Pitcher option today against the Rangers in Texas.

Michael Fulmer (1:35pm ET) continues to get starts with Shane Greene on the 15-Day Disabled List.  Fulmer was acquired by the Tigers from the Yoenis Cespedes trade late summer of last season.  The young prospect hasn’t been great, but he’s flashing signs of being a solid starting pitcher in the big leagues.  Michael has yet to pitch in Detroit, but over three starts in Minnesota, Cleveland, and Washington, D.C., Fulmer is averaging 29 PPG.  Michael has been able to average almost 5 strikeouts per game, which is decent.  He also landed two wins over the three starts.  The only rough game was in Cleveland yielding only 18 points.  But it’s hard to ignore Fulmer’s salary of $6,400, which is appeal for 30 points, giving us a bargain 4.5X value.  I’m intrigued by Michael Fulmer’s value in Baltimore earl this afternoon, just understand the risk.

Next: Value Hitters - INF

May 13, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Angels first baseman C.J. Cron (24) hits a two-run RBI single in the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. The Angels won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
May 13, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Angels first baseman C.J. Cron (24) hits a two-run RBI single in the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. The Angels won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – INF

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  At the start of this season the values were all over the place.  There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.

We talked about Bobby Wilson, C, (3:05pm ET) on Friday and as long as he’s starting today, I continue to love his value and hot play.  Another interesting option is Yadier Molina, C, (8:05pm ET).  Molina has been consistently solid over the last week, his last four games yielding 9.5-21.7 points.  Over the last week, Yadier is averaging 12.4 PPG, 5th among all catchers.  With a $3,100 salary today, Molina is an attractive 4X value play today.

C.J. Cron, 1B, (4:05pm ET) is beginning to feel like an underrated fantasy option this season.  The Los Angeles Angel, a former first round pick of the Angels out of Utah, is demonstrating consistent hitting and some pop.  Cron had over 20 points per game in each of his last three outings, getting 2 home runs and 6 RBI’s over those same three games.  Over the last seven days, C.J. is averaging 16.6 PPG, 2nd among all first basemen.  With a $2,900 salary today and incredible 5.7X value, Cron is one of the better value options of the day.

Gordon Beckham, 2B, (2:15pm ET) is back off the DL from a hamstring injury.  Since coming back from the injury, Gordon appears to have more patience at the plate and is getting hits more consistently as a result.  The former first round pick (8th overall) of the Chicago White Sox has had a fairly disappointing career so far.  However, he has a revitalized opportunity with a re-building Atlanta Braves this year.  Over the last week, Beckham is averaging 11 PPG and has a very cheap $2,400 salary.  Gordon is an attractive 4.6X value option in Kansas City today.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, (8:05pm ET) is absolutely on fire lately.  Over the last six games, Carpenter had double-digit points in five of those games.  Three were 30 points or higher. Over the last week, Matt averaged a fantastic 23.5 PPG, second only to an also hot and great value option, Todd Frazier (1:05pm ET), who has 23.8 PPG and 5.7X value.  Carpenter’s salary is cheaper than Frazier’s at $3,900 giving us a bargain 6X value.  Carpenter should remain hot in L.A. tonight.

I’ve written about Addison Russell, SS, (2:20pm ET) recently and I just can’t avoid him again today.  I use Russell daily because of his results recently and he continues to be fairly affordable, that hasn’t changed today.  Four of his last four games, Russell had 20+ points.  In five of his last six games, Addison had 20+ points.  Over the last week, unsurprisingly Russell averaged 21.6 PPG. Addison’s still only $3,600 giving us another fantastic 6X value.  Russell should stay hot against today in Chicago against the Pirates.

Next: Value Hitters - OF

May 13, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) hits a single in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
May 13, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) hits a single in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – OF

We’ve talked about Jackie Bradley, Jr. (1:35pm ET) a lot lately, but agin, we can’t ignore him.  The Boston Red Sox lineup has been one of the hottest in baseball, and probably would be the most talked about if it wasn’t for the Chicago Cubs streaking lately.  Bradley is one of the key components of the Red Sox current run.  Over the last seven days, Jackie averaged 24.5 PPG, the best among all outfielders.  Bradley’s salary surprisingly remains fairly reasonable at $3,900.  With a 6.3X value, Jackie is our best value option in the outfield position.

I don’t believe we’ve talked about the St. Louis Cardinals’ Matt Holliday (8:05pm ET) all season, and that’s about to change.  Matt has been quietly solid all year, hitting a .273 batting average with 16 runs, 19 RBI’s, 11 doubles, 1 triple and 12 walks over 35 games.  Holliday also now has 6 Home Runs.  In fact, over the past four games, Matt has 3 home runs, half of his total for the year. Two of his HR’s were in L.A. against the Dodgers on Thursday.  Over the last week, Holliday is averaging 17.1 PPG, 5th among all outfielders.  With a very cheap $2,800 salary, Matt provides a 6.1X value, second best only behind Bradley tonight.  I like Holliday to continue his good hitting tonight against the Dodgers, again.

With Shin Shoo Choo on the Disabled List, and unlikely to return for at least another week, Ryan Rua (3:05pm ET) will continue to get starts for the Texas Rangers.  Ruan has only play 17 games and has 55 at-bats, but he’s been making the most of them hitting .291 so far this season.  Ryan hit a home run against the White Sox on Tuesday landing 38.4 points, following that game up the next day with 15.2 points.  Rua has risk, he’s had a few quiet games as well.  But for only $2,200 you’re getting a guy who can get you double-digit points.  Assuming Rua can figure out Aaron Sanchez, he’s a great 6.1X value option as well today.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.