MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 16

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 16

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

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Monday’s slate kicks off at 6:05PM EST with the Reds and Indians giving us an “early” only slate in addition to the rest of the night’s 8 games which kick off at 7PM EST.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Rick Porcello ($8,500) versus Kansas City – Looking through the Monday slate, there are no clear cut dominant starters which makes for an interesting tournament environment where we can line up multiple entries using various pitchers in favorable matchups. The best pitcher from a points per game perspective on the season is RIck Porcello who has averaged 43 ppg this season which is over 5 points higher than Jordan ZImmermann who is priced $1,600 higher on Monday. Porcello has put up 5.1x value, again the highest metric of any available starting pitcher and gets to toe the rubber for one of the hottest teams in baseball in Boston. The only downside is that Porcello has a matchup with the Royals who are one of the toughest teams to strikeout in all of baseball but are one of the lowest scoring teams on a per game basis.
J.A. Happ ($8,500) versus Tampa Bay – At the same price point, a great pivot away from Porcello would be the Toronto left hander at home against Tampa Bay. Over the last 15 days, Happ is averaging 43 points per start, good for 5.1x value, and is a solid home favorite on Monday night. His opponent, Tampa Bay, is one of the most strikeout prone in all of baseball, averaging 9.5 K’s/game which is 29th out of 30 MLB teams. The only downside to this matchup is that his mound opponent is a similarly hot Drew Smyly who may be able to match Happ’s output and the interesting wrinkle that the Jays may have a variety of players suspended due to the brawl in Texas on Sunday. However, I expect the Jays to provide enough run support and the fact that Happ has homefield advantage makes him a solid play in all formats.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Top Hitters/Stacks

Detroit Tigers versus Jose Berrios – The Tigers are the highest projected scoring team on the slate with a matchup against the Twins right handed rookie. Berrios in limited action so far this season (14 IP) has given up 10 ER with 4 home runs, so it is no wonder Vegas expects big things out of the Detroit bats. It is a small sample size, but Berrios is giving up a higher average to left handed batters (.387) but has given up 3 of his 4 home runs to right handed batters. Victor Martinez ($3,500) is the top priced catcher on the slate which may lead to him being under owned as gamers look to drop down at catcher and pay up elsewhere. Nick Castellanos ($3,200) has been the most productive hitter on the Tigers over the last 15 days, averaging 12.8 points per game, however digging closer that is skewed by three 25+ point games making the Tigers 3B an ideal all or nothing tournament option.

Yankees Right Handed Bats versus LHP Robbie Ray – The Yankees head to Chase Field to take on Arizona and the right handed bats see a major boost in this matchup as Ray has struggled to hold right handers in check so far this season. Right handers have hit 4 home runs in 25 IP, good for a 1.44 HR/9 and are hitting a blistering .302 against Ray so far. The Yankees right handed bats are very favorably priced which makes them a great additional stack if you are looking to pay up for the Tigers heavy hitters. Aaron Hicks ($2,500) is averaging 8.2 points per game over the last two weeks which is good for 3.3x value, makes for a great bargain option. Chase Headley ($2,800) has quietly turned it on the last week after a brutal start, averaging 11.2 ppg over the last 7 days, good for 4.3x value.

Red Sox versus Yordano Ventura – The Boston offense is absolutely smoking right now and with a wild thrower in Ventura on the hill, this could be a spot for some crooked numbers by the Sox. Ventura has really struggled against opposing left handed hitters this season, walking nearly 20% of the batters while only striking out 11% and a HR/9 metric of 1.40. The fact that this game is at Kansas City certainly helps Ventura as he has been much better at home than on the road, but with the way the Red Sox are hitting, it makes the big left handed bats of David Ortiz ($4,300) and Jackie Bradley Jr.($4,000) difficult fades.

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!