FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 17th

FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 17th

Welcome to FanDuel Economics!  This is the MLB Picks May 17th edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

The MLB schedule is back to a full slate of games on Tuesday.  All 30 teams are in action today. Alfredo Simon will throw the first pitch of the day at 6:10pm ET for the Cincinnati Reds in Cleveland against Danny Salazar and the Indians.  Every other game begins after 7pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:

• 6:10pm ET (Early Only)
  • Games starting between 6:10pm ET and 7:10pm ET
• 7:05pm ET (Main)
  • All games starting at or after 7:05pm ET

  Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder.  The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.

  If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.  Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

  Next: Value Pitchers

  

  Value Pitchers

  There are so many good pitching options tonight, it’s somewhat overwhelming.  Aside from his historic 20 strikeout game last outing, Max Scherzer (7:10pm ET) has struggled at times this year and he’s facing a strong Mets lineup in New York tonight.  So, while Max will get you points on strikeouts, he’s a risky pick for $10,500, only a 3.8X value.  Madison Bumgarner (10:10pm ET) is appealing in San Diego tonight against a consistently bad Padres team.  However, like Scherzer, Bumgarner has had some struggles at times and only has 4 wins over 8 starts.  You’ll probably get around 40 points from Madison, but you’re also paying $12,100 for those 40 points, a low 3.5X value.

  One of the more appealing options to me today is Danny Salazar (6:10pm ET).  For starers, pardon the pun, Salazar is facing a pitcher, in Alfredo Simon, and Cincinnati Reds team who has struggled all season.  So there’s a decent chance Danny pulls in the win, a 12 point accomplishment alone. Also, Salazar is averaging 42.3 PPG this season and has been fairly consistent.  In fact, in his last outing, Danny locked in 42 points.  With a $9,100 salary and 4.6X value, Salazar is a must have in at least one lineup.

  Probably the biggest surprise to many on the top 10 value options list for pitchers tonight is Chad Bettis (8:15pm ET).  Bettis only averages 27.9 PPG this year.  But, Chad has been fairly consistent this year and has even had a few good games in Coors Field, including a 48 point game against the Padres.  In his last outing in Coors, Bettis locked in 31 points on 8 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks.  Bettis is facing the Cardinals in St. Louis tonight, a lineup who has been consistently good this year, so there’s some risk with this pick.  However, you’re only using $5,800 salary and getting a fantastic 4.8X value.  If you’re looking to really beef up your hitters and still get 30 points out of your pitcher, Chad Bettis is your best option.

  Here’s a look at the top 10 value options:

  Player                                      YTD Value (Points/$1,000 Salary)

  1. Rick Porcello                         5.1
  2. Chad Bettis                           4.8
  3. Vincent Velasquez               4.8
  4. Danny Salazar                      4.6
  5. Jaime Garcia                          4.5
  6. Marcus Stroman                  4.4
  7. Clayton Kershaw                  4.2
  8. Noah Syndergaard               4.0
  9. Cole Hamels                          4.0
  10. Wade Miley                            4.0

  Next: Value Hitters - INF

  

  Value Hitters – INF

  When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50.

  Chris Iannetta, C, (7:05pm ET) is a name we haven’t called yet this season.  Chris has a low .237 batting average and only 9 Runs and RBI’s.  However, over the last week, Iannetta hit two home runs.  Chris appears to be a hot and cold hitter, but he’s worth a consideration averaging 13 PPG over seven days with only a $2,500 salary, 5.2X value.

  Justin Smoak, 1B, (7:07pm ET) continues to have a good season.  After 35 games, Smoak is hitting a .307 average with 4 doubles, 3 home runs, 10 runs, and 11 RBI’s.  Justin didn’t start the season as the starter at first base, but he was given an opportunity when Chris Colabello was given an 80 game suspension for testing positive to a performance-enhancing drug.  The Blue Jays are probably breathing a sigh of relief that Smoak has been able to level out his batting stance and hit more consistently, just in time.  Justin is averaging 15.5 PPG over the last week and with a $3,000 salary he’s a 5X value and one of the best in the 1B position.

  Jonathan Schoop, 2B, (7:05pm ET) has a hot bat lately.  Against the Tigers on Saturday, Schoop went yard twice in the game, also driving in 5 RBI’s and getting a walk, a 50.9 FanDuel point night. Jonathan now has 7 home runs on the season along with 22 RBI’s, not bad for a second basemen. Over the last seven days, Schoop averaged 14.9 PPG.  Tonight, Jonathan’s salary is a decent $3,100, a 4.8X bargain value.

  Along with the rest of the Boston Red Sox lineup, Travis Shaw, 3B, (8:15pm ET) continues to have a very good year hitting the baseball.  Shaw is now hitting a .317 average with 13 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs, 22 runs, 26 RBI’s and 3 steals.  That’s a very good stat line after 38 games. Over the last week, Travis has been particularly hot averaging 21.5 PPG, the most among all consistent third base starters.  Surprisingly, Shaw’s salary dropped recently to $3,500.  So we now have a 6.1X value option at third base tonight, one of the best hitting values of the night.

  Troy Tulowitzki, SS, (7:07pm ET) is starting to look like himself, again, lately.  After starting the season horribly, Troy has 3 home runs over his last five games.  He also has 9 hits over his last seven games.  ‘Tulo’ has three 25+ FanDuel point games over his last five games.  In the last week, Troy averaged 19.3 PPG.  Taking advantage of his horrible start, you can get Tulowitzki for a low $3,400 salary and a very good 5.7X value.

  Next: Value Hitters - OF

  

  Value Hitters – OF

  We talked about Adam Jones (7:05pm ET) late last week and after struggling to start the season Jones is absolutely on fire.  For example, Adam has 5 HR’s on the year, but he hit 4 of his home runs over his last six games.  Jones has double-digit FanDuel points in 5 of his last six games as well.  Over the last week, Adam has an incredible 24.5 PPG average.  Couple the outstanding point average with a cheap $3,500 and you have a high 7X value.  Jones should be a must start until he cools off or gets too expensive.

  Ian Desmond (10:05pm ET) continues to make a case for a bigger contract out of the Texas Rangers.  After the statistics plummet for the Washington Nationals last season, I’m sure the Rangers would like to see how the entire season plays out.  However, for now, Desmond is a consistently good option in the outfield position.  We’re written about Ian several times and continue to play him in lineups.  Over the last seven days, Demond averaged 21.5 PPG, 3rd only to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Jones among all outfielders.  Ian’s salary has climbed to $3,800 but that’s still affordable and you’re getting a very good 5.7X value out of him again tonight.

  Carlos Beltran (9:40pm ET) has been getting large sums of points in several game waves this year.  In the middle part of May, Beltran seems to be surging.  Since May 9th, Carlos has 4 home runs and three games over 24 points.  Over the last week, Beltran averaged 16.9 PPG.  With a very reasonable $3,000 salary, Carlos is providing a 5.6X value tonight.

  To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

  Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

  For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.