FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 19th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 19th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
With eight teams taking the day off, the MLB schedule is a slimmed-down version with eleven game schedule for Thursday. Two games, Seattle at Baltimore and Chicago at Milwaukee, start in the early afternoon. All other games start after 7pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
- Mariners at Orioles (12:35pm ET)
- Cubs at Brewers (1:40pm ET)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers - Early
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers.
Early
Junior Guerra (1:40pm ET) is a journeyman reliever who made his first ever MLB start, at the age of 31, on May 3rd against the Los Angeles Angles. The Milwaukee Brewers have been looking for a 5th starter in their rotation since Matt Garza suffered a strained lat in Spring Training. Garza is now on the 60 day Disabled List and Guerra is starting to settle in well as a starter. After three starts, Junior has 2 wins, 13 strikeouts over 18 innings, and a 4.00 ERA. These aren’t stellar stats, but for someone with a $6,100 salary they’re not bad either. Guerra’s worst outing was in Cincinnati compiling 24 points, which isn’t great but not terrible for your worst outing. After his last start at home against the Padres, Junior piled up 42 points, his best game so far. Since his first start, Guerra is averaging 31 PPG. With his salary, he’s the best option value option among the four starting pitchers in the early slate at 5.1X.
Next: Value Pitchers - Main
Value Pitchers
Main
Over his last three starts, Jon Gray (7:15pm ET) has been quite impressive. In San Diego, Gray didn’t get the win, but did pile up 11 strikeouts over 6 innings and landed at 45 points. In San Francisco, Jon also didn’t get a win but fanned 5 batters over 7 innings and was able to climb to 36 points. And finally in Coors Field, where pitchers typically fall apart, against the Mets, Gray had 8 K’s over 7 inning, finally getting that win, and piled on 51 points. Over three games, Jon averaged 32.2 PPG. On a very cheap $6,900 salary, Gray is giving us a good 4.7X value. Jon Gray struggled in his major league debut late last year, but he seems to be getting locked-in his first full season.
Jeff Samardzija (9:10pm ET) has been asbolutely hot lately. Samardzija appears to be providing the type of dominating rotation support the Giants were hoping to get out of him after signing Samardzija in December of last year. Over his last three starts, Jeff has 21 K’s over 23.2 innings and 2 wins averaging 45.6 PPG. Even though Samardzija’s salary is a pricey $9,900, he’s providing a very good 4.6X value on 40-50 points. That’s a bargain.
Stephen Strasburg (7:10pm ET) is another great pitcher with a solid value, 4.5X. Strasburg landed at 4th on the value board tonight, but with an average of 43 PPG and a salary dropping to $10,600 tonight against the Mets, we also had to mention Strasburg as well as a good value option.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50.
We just talked about Yan Gomes, C, (7:10pm ET) yesterday so I’m not going to revisit all of the details. Gomes followed the discussion with a decent 12.7 point game. I like Yan’s value again tonight, 6.6X, and would suggest riding his value until he gets cold or too expensive.
We all know Chris Davis, 1B (12:35pm ET) of the Baltimore Orioles has tremendous power. But what’s making Davis more attractive as a value option is his ability to get one base consistently this month. Over his last 10 games, Davis has at least 3 points, which is uncommon among the top sluggers. Chris also has a couple of home runs in that same timespan. Over the last week, Davis averaged 17.2 PPG, tops among all first basemen. Chris has a pricey salary at $4,100, but even with his salary he’s a solid 4.2X value. I like Davis to continue to get on base and maybe go yard again today in Baltimore.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, (7:10pm ET) had a good season last year, and is starting off well this year. Kipnis is hitting a .292 batting average with 6 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs, 22 runs, 21 RBI’s, and 3 stolen bases. Kipnis has 2 HR’s over the past five games, but what’s also interesting is he’s had 6 double-digit FanDuel point games over his last seven. For the last week, Jason has a 15.7 PPG average, 3rd among all second basemen. With a $3,600 salary, Kipnis has a consistent and attractive 4.4X value tonight.
Like Gomes, Danny Valencia, 3B, (10:05pm ET) is another great value we talked about yesterday who we can’t ignore again today. Danny is absolutely scorching the baseball this season, hitting a .357 batting average now with 6 home runs, 14 runs, and 14 RBI’s over just 23 games. After talking up Valencia’s value yesterday, he followed up with a very nice 22.4 point game. Danny’s salary climbed $200 today, to $3,100, but he’s still jaw-dropping 8.5X value and just impossible to ignore playing until he either consistently disappoints us or gets too expensive.
Xander Bogaerts has a higher seven-day average, 17.8 PPG, than Corey Seager, SS, (10:05pm ET) who has 17.3 PPG. However, Bogaerts is taking the day off, along with the rest of the Boston Red Sox. While pricey, Corey’s salary of $4,200 still gives you a 4.2X value over the last week. That’s may not seem like a high value, but it’s the best value amongf all shortstops who have started more than three games over the last seven days. Seager is worth trying to afford tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
At some point the Dodgers are going to be compelled to keep Trayce Thompson (10:05pm ET), younger brother of NBA Star Klay Thompson, in their lineup daily. Thompson is having a great year, hitting a .307 batting average with 6 home runs, 14 runs, 17 RBI’s, and 5 doubles in just 31 games. Trayce hit two home runs in one game against the Angels on Monday, and has several big games this year. Over the last week, Thompson also averaged 18.1 PPG and is still a cheap $3,100 salary. So if Trayce is in the Dodgers lineup tonight, he’s bringing a fantastic 5.8X value with him.
Nelson Cruz (12:35pm ET) is catching fire again and it’s time to get him before he gets too expensive. Cruz has 3 home runs over his last 5 games. Nelson also has 9 RBI’s over the same span. Over the last seven days, Cruz averaged 21.5 PPG, the most of all outfielders. Nelson’s salary has climbed to a price $4,000 level, but he’s still a very good 5.4X value, still cheap for that much production. Look for Cruz to continue to roll this afternoon in Baltimore.
Speaking of catching fire, Khris Davis (10:05pm ET) may be leaving the stratosphere after the past two days. In the last two days, in Oakland against the Rangers, Davis hit 4 home runs, knocked in 8 RBI’s, had 2 walks, and 5 runs. In total, over the two games, Kris had 97.5 FanDuel points. For the week, Davis is averaging 18.1 PPG. Kris’ salary climbed to $3,400, but considering his two-game performance, that seems incredibly cheap. Still, his salary compared to the last week gives you a very good 5.3X value. It’s worth riding Davis while he’s hot.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.