FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 20th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 20th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
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The MLB schedule is back to a full slate of 15 games on Friday. As we typically see each Friday when the Cubs aren’t playing at home, the games are all in the evening, starting at 7:05pm ET. The Braves at Phillies and Rockies at Pirates will each start off the night. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
Aaron Nola (7:05pm ET) is another talented young, 22 year old, prospect in a surprisingly strong Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation. Along with Vincent Velasquez, the Phillies rotation appears to have a bright future ahead. While Aaron only has 3 wins, over eight starts he’s still have a very good season unsupported by the Phillies weak hitting lineup. Nola has 58 strikeouts over 53 innings, giving up only 9 walks and has a low 2.89 ERA. In most other rotations, he’d likely have more wins. However, Aaron’s FanDuel performance has been very good as well, mostly supported by the low ERA and K’s, but most recently but the Phillies surprising winning surge. Over the last 30 days, Nola averaged 45.6 PPG, 11th among all starting pitchers with more than 2 starts over that span. Aaron’s salary did become more pricey at $9,000, but that’s still providing a very good 5.1X value for tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that Nola is facing a struggling Atlanta Braves lineup tonight.
Jose Quintana (8:10pm ET) has been consistently good all season. Quintana’s two worst starts were in Tampa agains the Rays and New York, against the Yankees, still compiling 30 points. When hot, Jose piles up 60 points, like he did against the Blue Jays in Toronto. After eight starts, Quintana has 5 wins, 47 K’s over 52 innings, only 11 walks, and an impressive 1.54 ERA. Over the last month, like Nola, Jose averaged 45.6 PPG. Also like Nola, Quintana’s salary is beginning to get price, now at $9,400. However, that still provides us a very good 4.9X value, top 10 among all starting pitchers. Jose Quintana is another strong pitching value at home tonight against the Royals.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50.
If you’re getting tired of playing Yan Gomes, C, (7:10pm ET) or Yan is getting the night off, let’s look at another good option. Although Gomes still has a 7X value. Jason Castro, C, (8:10pm ET) is another solid option tonight. We’ve talked about Castro before, and he continues to hover around the high-value board. Over the last week, Jason has 14.8 PPG. Unfortunately, Castro’s salary has climbed to $3,100, but that still gives you a 4.8X value and while that’s a drop-off from Gomes, it’s your next best value option among daily starting catchers. Assuming one or both are behind the plate tonight, you have two great options.
Steve Pearce, 1B, (7:10pm ET) has been quiet, but consistently good this season for the Tampa Bay Rays. After 25 games, Steve is hitting a .301 batting average, has 3 doubles, 6 home runs, 14 runs, and 17 RBI’s. Over the last seven games, Pearce has 3 HR’s, 8 Runs, and 8 RBI’s. Pearce averaged 15.8 PPG over the seven-day period. Tonight Steve has a pricier $3,400 salary, but that still gives us a 4.6X value, top 5 among all first basemen. Pearce is an interesting option tonight against the Tigers in Detroit.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, (7:10pm ET) is having an incredible year. Ian is hitting a .319 average with 9 doubles, 10 home runs, 37 runs, and 24 RBI’s. He also has 3 stolen bases. Over the last week, Kinsler hit 4 home runs, all 4 within a four game span. Ian had 22-34 points in each of his last four games. Over the last week, Kinsler averaged 21.8 PPG, first among all second basemen. This year’s 2B crop has been pretty incredible offensively and Kinsler is one of the best options. Of course, Ian’s salary is pricey at $4,400 but that’s still a 5X value. With this value, and with Kinsler’s hot streak, he’s a very good option tonight.
Once again, Danny Valencia, 3B, (9:35pm ET) is a fantastic value option, 7.8X, and he’s absolutely on fire, 25.7 PPG. Continue to play him while this trend continues. Another very good option is Eugenio Suarez, 3B, (7:10pm ET). Like earlier in the season, Suarez is on a hot power streak, hitting 3 home runs over four games. Over the last week, Eugenio averaged 15.8 PPG. With a cheap $3,000, Suarez is a very good 5.3X value.
Francisco Lindor, SS, (7:10pm ET) is another player in our list having a spectacular season at the dish. Lindor is hitting a .325 average with 8 doubles, 3 home runs, 25 runs, 18 RBI’s, and 6 stolen bases. A very good stat line for a shortstop. Over the last week, Francisco averaged 16.6 PPG, 1st among all shortstops. Lindor’s salary is $3,700, probably a fair value, but he’s still a good 4.5X value.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Rajai Davis (7:10pm ET) has been having an otherwise uninspiring season. But, lately Davis has been on a tear. Over the last week, Davis is averaging 23.3 PPG, tops among all outfielders. Over just the last three games, Rajai averaged 38.8 PPG, which is a short, but incredible run. Davis has a $3,400 salary tonight, reasonable considering his current tear, providing a 6.9X value. Rajai is your best value option in the outfield position tonight.
We talked about Khris Davis (9:35pm ET) yesterday, and if you’ve been playing FanDuel MLB daily it wouldn’t be a surprise that Davis is on a power tear lately, he’s either helped you (you played him) or hurt you (someone else played him). We won’t dive into the the details again today, but Khris Davis is a very good 5.9X value again tonight.
Chris Owings (8:15pm ET) doesn’t have a lot of power, but he’s getting on base consistently, scoring, and knocking in a decent amount of RBI’s. Owings also has 6 doubles and 4 triples. Chris hit his first home run of the season on Wednesday, adding to a good May. Over the last week, Owings averaged 12.3 PPG. That may not seem like a great average, but what’s great about Chris is the very low salary, $2,100, allowing you to play him, get 10 points, and still have plenty of money for the heavier hitters we already discussed. I like Chris Owings 5.9X value heading into St. Louis tonight.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.