FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 23rd
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 23rd
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 23rd edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
With six teams off today, we only have 12 games on the MLB slate for Monday. One of those games, however, is the Rockies at Pirates game, postponed from Sunday. The Rockies/Pirates game is not currently an option on FanDuel, but that may change as the day moves on. For now, there are only two options. ‘Early Only,’ which includes games starting at 5:10pm ET through 7:10pm ET. And ‘Main’, which includes all games starting at or after 7:05pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 5:10pm ET (Early Only)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
For most of the MLB season, we’ve focused on value within cheaper, lesser known pitchers. As we approach the end of May, there is a dynamic change in value options. Over the last week, value is becoming more obvious in the more expensive pitcher options. That’s especially true today. Clayton Kershaw (10:10pm ET) is one of the best pitchers in baseball today, and one of the more well know pitchers. Kershaw has a very expensive salary, at $13,200 today. But while expensive, Clayton’s statistics have been outstanding and with a 63.6 PPG over the last month, Kershaw has a 4.8X value. This is the highest value Kershaw has had this season and he’s now 14th among all starting pitchers. Now is a great time to use Clayton and he’s worth taking some cheaper hitting options to afford him tonight at home against the Cincinnati Reds.
We’ve talked about Rich Hill (10:10pm ET) several times this year, and unfortunately he’s becoming more expensive, with a $9,600 salary tonight. However, Hill also continues to have an outstanding season and is always a great daily fantasy baseball pick. Over the past 30 days, Rich averaged 41.8 PPG, one of the better pitching options over the 30-day period. While Hill is expensive, he’s a cheaper option than Kershaw and is still a very good 4.5X value, 27th among all staring pitchers. Again, Rich is a good value tonight facing a tough Seattle Mariners lineup.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50.
Curt Casali, C, (7:10pm ET) isn’t having a spectacular year, but over the last week Casali is one of the hottest hitting options at catcher. Along with hitting his 5th home run in Toronto, Curt averaged 15.9 PPG over the last seven days, 3rd among all catchers. With a chap $2,600 salary, Casali is a fantastic 6.1X value tonight. If Matt Wieters were playing, he would be the best option. But with the night off, Casali is your best options.
Carlos Santana, 1B, (8:40pm ET) and the Cleveland Indians are on fire lately. Over his last four games, Carlos has 3 home runs. Over the last week, Santana averaged 20.9 PPG, the most among all first basemen. Considering his high point average, tonight’s $3,700 salary is reasonable. Carlos brings a 5.6X value tonight to the plate against the Cleveland Indians.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, (7:10pm ET) is a well-known option at second base. Kinsler is having a fantastic year hitting a .313 average, with 40 runs, 10 HR’s, 24 RBI’s, 9 doubles, and 4 stolen bases. I’ve written about Ian before, in short he does everything you want out of a guy at the plate. Kinsler is quite price at $4,400, but with a 23.9 PPG average over the last week, first among all second basemen by roughly 5 points, he’s a very good 5.4X value tonight.
A less well-known option is Jorge Polanco, 3B, (8:10pm ET). With Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe less than 100 percent lately, Polanco was called up from the minors and has seen a few starts lately. Assuming Jorge can get another call to start tonight, he’s an intriguing option at third base. Over the last week, Polanco averaged 15.4 PPG, third among all third basemen. Likely due to his minimal time in the big leagues, Jorge is on a $2,600 salary tonight and a very good 5.9X value.
Alcides Escobar, SS, (8:10pm ET) has been having a fairly average season so far. However, lately Alcides has been getting on base more, and given his speed, Escobar getting on base more provides more value to the Kansas City Royals. Over the last seven days, Alcides averaged 13.3 PPG, 8th among all shortstops. With a very reasonable $3,000 salary, Escobar provides a solid 4.4X value tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
On Friday, we talked about Rajai Davis (8:40pm ET) and how he had the most PPG over a week’s time and the best value option. Today, on Monday, that’s still the case. Davis averaged 25.6 PPG over a seven-day period. His salary is becoming more expensive, now at $3,500. But Davis still has a very high 7.3X value, the best option among any outfielder playing more than 3 games over the last seven days.
Since being activated from the disabled list and playing his first game of the season on May 16th, Cameron Maybin (7:10pm ET) has been on fire. Over the only six games Cameron played this year, he hasn’t had less than 15 points in any one game, an incredible streak. Over the last week, Maybin averaged 19 PPG, fairly consistently. With a still cheap $3,100 salary, Cameron is a very attractive 6.1X value tonight.
Ben Revere (7:05pm ET) is another outfielder coming off the disabled list who is quietly catching fire. Revere took longer to get hot, and hasn’t been as consistent as Maybin. However, Ben has been hitting better, and getting on base more, which makes him more appealing with his speed. Over the last week, Revere averaged 14.4 PPG, including 7 hits over his last 3 games. Ben’s salary is a very cheap $2,500 giving us an attractive 5.7X value. Ben should continue his hot streak tonight in Washington, D.C. against Bartolo Colon and the New York Mets.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.