MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 23
MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 23
Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel Baseball slate. The purpose of this column is first to identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny, who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook!
Monday’s MLB games kick off with one early game at 5:10PM EST but the main slate kicks off with 10 games at 7:05PM EST.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 251.3 | $ 8,507 | 24% | 76% | $ 3,312 | 7.18 |
| 5 Day | 271.5 | $ 8,950 | 26% | 74% | $ 3,256 | 7.76 |
| Prev Day | 243.9 | $ 10,400 | 30% | 70% | $ 3,075 | 6.97 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw ($13,200) at home versus Cincinnati – You do not need an article to tell you to play the best pitcher on the planet but considering Kershaw’s price is at a season high some gamer’s may be hesitant to utilize 37% of their budget on one player. However, would it surprise you to know that Kershaw is actually the best value pick of any pitcher on Monday’s slate as well?
Kershaw over the last 30 days is hitting 4.8x value which is the best of any starting pitcher going to the hill on Monday. Kershaw is averaging 63 points per game and has double digit strikeouts in 6 straight starts. If you are playing cash games, lock in Kershaw and work to find value bats if you want to cash out. In tournaments, I would expect Kershaw’s inflated price will drive ownership down and make Clayton an interesting tournament pivot as well.
Ian Kennedy ($8,400) at Minnesota – The value options are few and far between on Monday, making paying up for Kershaw seem like the best bet the more I dig into the slate. However, one pitcher who is favored to get the win and gets a favorable matchup is Ian Kennedy against the Twins.
Minnesota is 26th out of 30 teams in strikeouts and Kennedy is the third highest favorite of any pitcher on the mound while sitting at a reasonable price point. Kennedy has topped 50 points in 3 of his 8 starts this season and has struck out at least 6 batters in 7 of his 8 starts which gives him ideal tournament upside. If you are looking to differentiate your lineup on Monday, Kennedy gives you almost $5k of cost savings from Kershaw and has flashed 50+ point upside.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Top Hitters/Stacks
Philadelphia Phillies versus Mike Pelfrey – You want to pay up for Kershaw, then you are going to need to find some value and the Phillies bats may be your best under the radar stack going up against our buddy Big Pelf! Pelfrey has given up 8 home runs this year in only 41 IP and a .378 average to opposing left handed hitters.
Ryan Howard ($2,300) has great BvP numbers in his career versus Pelfrey (16 for 45 with 3 home runs) and sits at a great price point to fit in a top end pitcher. Tyler Goeddel ($2,000) has averaged 8.7 points over the last week which is good for 4.3x value and makes a tremendous OF punt play.
More from FanSided
- MLB Trade Grades: Dodgers reunite with familiar face in Red Sox deal
- NHL Rumors: Legendary Patrice Bergeron retires, which 3 players could be next to hang up their skates?
- MLB Rumors: Cardinals budging on Arenado, Orioles-Ohtani package, Yankees backup plan
- Patriots backup plan for DeAndre Hopkins is a shot in the dark
- Raiders: Saquon Barkley’s new contract may have screwed over Josh Jacobs
Dodgers RHB versus Brandon Finnegan – One additional low cost stack that makes paying up for Kershaw is to utilize the low priced right handed bats against the Reds left hander on Monday. Finnegan has been extremely home run prone to opposing right handed batters, giving up 9 home runs in 38.1 IP versus RHB. Justin Turner ($2,400) and Kike Hernandez ($2,000) will likely hit at the top of the Dodger order making them tremendous value plays and can be added to a stack with Yasiel Puig who has seen his price drop to $2,400.
Cameron Maybin ($3,100) – I touched on Maybin in yesterday’s article and he responded on Sunday with 16.5 points, making that the 6th straight game with at least 15 points. Maybin is putting up 18.6 points per game over the last week which is 6x value and and makes for a continued must play as long as his price point sits at this level and the production continues to be where it is.
J.D. Martinez ($3,900) – Maybin’s teammate is another batter that has been red hot over the last week, averaging 20.8 points per game, good for 5.5x value and has homered in 4 of his last 7 games
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!