MLB Picks: FanDuel Economics for May 24th
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 24th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day with your FanDuel MLB picks!
On Tuesday, the MLB schedule is back to a full slate of baseball games. The day starts around lunch time, eastern, with a Florida show-down. Jake Odorizzi take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, in Miami, facing off against Tom Koehler and the Marlins. All other games are after 7pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 12:10pm ET (Main)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB picks for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball picks. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
Chris Tillman (8:10pm ET) is having a great year pitching on a very good Baltimore Orioles baseball team. Chris has won 5 straight, and continues to average over one strikeout per inning, a good ratio for FanDuel points. Over the last month, Tillman averaged 51.2 PPG, 5th among all starting pitchers, in-between Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer, great company. Still, Chris has a cheap $8,600 salary tonight. So, Tillman is bringing an amazing 6X value to the mound, the best among all starting pitchers who have pitched at least 5 games over the last 30 days. Chris hasn’t pitched away from home since late April, but he has tremendous value tonight in Houston against the struggling Astros team.
We’ve talked about the impressive young Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff often this year. The more experienced Jeremy Hellickson (7:10pm ET) is at the top of the Phillies rotation and is having a solid year as well. Jeremy is 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 50 K’s over 49.2 innings. Hellickson had up and down performances, but also some real gems lately, including 60 points at home against the Cincinnati Reds and, most recently, 36 points against the Miami Marlins. Over the last month, Jeremy average a respectable 37 PPG. With a $7,300 salary tonight, Hellickson is cheap and provides a bargain 5.1X value. Jeremy faces a tough right-handed hitting lineup in Detroit against the Tigers, but the Tigers lineup also has been hit or miss against both right and left-handed pitching. It’s also hard to ignore Hellickson’s value tonight, one of the best options in the Pitching lineup spot.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball picks.
Matt Wieters, C, (8:10pm ET) has been absolutely scolding the baseball lately. Wieters has 2 home runs over the Orioles last 3 games. Along with 8 hits, 5 RBI’s, and 4 runs, Matt is on a tear. Over the last week, Wieters averaged 21.1 PPG. That’s the most points-per-game of any catcher in the past seven days, by over 7 points. After yesterday’s rest, Matt should be behind the plate for the O’s tonight. With a cheap $3,100 salary, and incredible 6.8X value, Weiters is by far the best catching value tonight in Houston against the Astros.
Over the last several years, Miguel Cabrera, 1B, (7:10pm) has been a consistent MVP candidate and one of the best hitters in baseball. Cabrera is having yet another amazing year at the dish. Miguel is hitting a .327 batting averaged with 11 HR’s, 28 RBI’s, 27 runs, and 20 walks. A great stat line for a FanDuel MLB pick. This last seven days have been no exception, with Cabrera averaging 25.9 PPG, easily the best among all first basemen. Even with an expensive $4,400, Miguel is providing a very high 5.9X value tonight. The Baltimore Orioles, Chris Tillman, is a touch pitcher to face, but Cabrera has proven to be a great hitter regardless of who’s pitching.
Value at the second base position tonight is scare, with everyone who played more than four games below 4X. However, there is one exception, Omar Infante, 2B, (8:10pm ET). Infante has simply been getting on base more for the Kansas City Royals and has avoided leaving runners in scoring position, with 4 RBI’s over his last two games. Omar has an unimpressive 10.8 PPG over the last week, but paying only $2,500 for a 10+ point average is solid value. At 4.3X tonight, Infante is your best value option at the 2B position.
While value was scarce at the second base position, third base is even worse. Regardless of games played, no third basemen has a 4X value or higher. Oddly, looking at most points per game over the last seven days, most have not been hitting the ball well. Anthony Rendon, 3B, (7:05pm ET) has 14.8 PPG, the most among all third basemen, just above Anthony Rizzo. Rendon’s salary is getting pricey, at $4,200, but with a 3.5X value, he’s your best value option in the 3B position today.
Unlike the catcher and first base position, and very much like the second and third base positions, Shortstop provides little value options today. Brandon Crawford, SS, (10:15pm ET) has found his power over the last two seasons for the San Francisco Giants. Over the last week, Crawford averaged 10.8 PPG, one of the highest point averaged among the daily starting shortstops. Brandon has a reasonable $3,100 salary tonight. Along with a decent 3.5X value, Crawford is your best value option at home against the Padres.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
The 30-year old Brazilian, Paulo Orlando (8:10pm ET), has been a surprise for the Kansas City Royals lately. Paulo mostly provides speed, but also has a hit in each of his last seven games, all but two of those games were multi-hit games. Orlando also has been cleaning up the base path with 9 RBI’s during that time. Orlando recently appears to have earned a regular start with his bat. Over the last week, Paulo averaged an impressive 22.1 PPG, the most of all regular outfield starters. Orlando’s salary is finally starting to climb, now at $2,700. But he gives us an incredible 8.2X value in Minnesota tonight against the Twins.
Last Friday, we talked about Rajai Davis (8:40pm ET) and he continues to be scorching hot. Davis averages 23.3 PPG over the last week, and while his salary has climbed to $3,500, that’s still a very good 6.7X value. Davis should remain in your lineups until he lets us down, or finally becomes too expensive.
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Carlos Beltran (7:05pm ET) continues to have a solid year at the plate, hitting .274 with 9 home runs, 22 runs, and 27 RBI’s. Over his last four games in Oakland, Beltran had at least 1 RBI in each game, ending the series with a total of 8 RBI’s. Carlos also had 7 hits in the series. Over the last week, Beltran averaged 18.3 PPG, 5th most among the regular outfield starters. Carlos still has a reasonable $3,500 salary tonight. With a 5.2X value, Beltran should continue his hot hitting at home in New York against the Toronto Blue Jays.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.