MLB Picks: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots for May 25 (Early)
MLB Picks: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots for May 25 (Early Slate)
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel Baseball Picks. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Wednesday’s Early MLB action kicks off at 1:05 PM EST with 7 games on the afternoon/early slate with another 8 games during the 7:05 PM EST Main slate.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.9 | $ 8,618 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,298 | 7.17 |
| 5 Day | 259.9 | $ 9,980 | 29% | 71% | $ 3,128 | 7.43 |
| Prev Day | 235.3 | $ 13,200 | 38% | 62% | $ 2,725 | 6.72 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Is Jake Arrieta a Must Play?
The early slate has one top flight ace in Jake Arrieta on the mound in St. Louis which sets up nicely for cash game purposes but players looking for tournament exposure have a variety of hurlers to choose from when selecting their MLB picks.
Jake Arrieta (12,300) @ Cardinals: The “chalk” cash game pick on the early slate will be Arrieta as no pitcher on the early slate has averaged more points per game this season or over the last two weeks than Arrieta. Any way you slice it, Arrieta gives you the safest floor and the highest upside which makes a fade in cash games a risky proposition. Arrieta has averaged 49.7 points this season (4x value) and has increased his output to 58.5 points per game over the last two weeks.
Arrieta also has exceptional numbers in his career against current Cardinals batters who are hitting a paltry .177 with zero home runs and only 4 extra base hits in 96 at bats. In those 96 at bats, Arrieta has a 30% strikeout rate which is actually higher than the 26% rate he has flashed so far in 2016. The Cubs ace is one of the safest plays on the board and a must play for cash game lineups in the early slate.
Steven Matz ($9,900) @ Nationals: if you are looking to fade Arrieta in cash games or looking for a tournament pivot, the Mets lefty makes for a high upside selection in your MLB picks. Matz has averaged 41 points per game this season which would equate to roughly 4.1x value at his current price point. Over the last 15 days, Matz has seen that number increase to 45 points including a 51 point outing in his last start against the Brewers where he struck out 8 over 7 innings. The Nationals present a difficult matchup as they strike out less than 20% of the time against opposing left handed pitchers, but Matz has flashed the ability to match Arrieta and would allow you to save money and differentiate your lineup for a large tournament payday.
Next: Where will the offense come from?
With so few top end pitchers on the mound Wednesday afternoon, there are a variety of favorable match-ups to exploit including the Angels bats against Colby Lewis which allow for a great potential stack.
Angels versus Colby Lewis – I tend to be somewhat neutral when using BvP stats and it is only when a statistic jumps off the page at me that I will utilize them to make my MLB picks. Colby Lewis’ career stats against the Angels certainly jump off the page as he has given up 57 hits in 165 at bats (.345 average) with 19 extra base hits and 8 home runs. Frankly a same size this large is hard to ignore and the fact that Lewis is at home where he has given up 8 of his 10 home runs this year in only 33 IP, makes this my top spot to target offense.
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Spending up at SP will make fitting in Mike Trout ($4,900) difficult but the man has absolutely destroyed Lewis in the past, going 13 for 33 (.394 average) with 7 XBH and 4 home runs. Albert Pujols ($3,600) is not far behind, going 10 for 29 with 3 home runs and 7 RBI. Fitting in both will be a costly mini-stack but with only 7 games on the early slate and an ideal match-up, fading the Angels bats may leave you out of the money.
Next: DFS Strategy: Up Your Game
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!