Analyzing the 3-and-D-ness of NBA draft wings
By Chris Stone
Last week, Ian Levy penned a post looking at the offensive personalities of various point guards in the 2016 NBA draft class. I enjoyed the post so much that I reached out to Ian about potentially doing a similar exercise for the draft’s best wing prospects. For various reasons, we decided that didn’t make as much sense, but earlier this year, Ian put together a chart graphing the “3-and-D-ness” of NBA wings, so he suggested doing the same for the wings in this year’s draft class.
Given the prominent role that “3-and-D” wings continue to play in the NBA and the plethora of talented shooting guards and small forwards available in the 2016 class, I pulled together the data and Ian graciously put together the following graphic that charts each player’s three-point percentage and Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) to give us an idea of their “3-and-D-ness.”
There are some obvious limitations worth noting. The three-point percentage number used is only for the past season and given that the college basketball season itself is a relatively small sample size, it is not necessarily a definitive measure of how good of a shooter a player is or is not. Similarly, Defensive Box Plus-Minus is heavily reliant on box score defensive stats like steals, blocks, and rebounds, so if we have other reasons to believe a player is either a good or a bad defender, those won’t be included here. Additionally, very few of the prospects have a negative DBPM, which is to be expected given that we’re looking at college basketball’s best wings. Despite having limitations, this exercise still feels like a valuable one for visualizing what role these wings may play in the NBA.
The player who benefits the most from DBPM’s emphasis on box score statistics is Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine. The 22-year old is generally not expected to be a great NBA defender because he lacks the explosiveness and athleticism that typifies strong defenders. However, Valentine is an excellent rebounder. His 9.1 rebounds per 40 minutes ranks as the third best mark among the wings represented here. The two players who averaged more rebounds per 40 minutes, Dorian Finney-Smith and Daniel Hamilton, both finished slightly above Valentine in DBPM. The Spartans’ senior should be able to contribute on the glass at the next level, but it still seems unlikely that he’ll be a great on-ball defender in the NBA.
Two other players that caught my eye were Malachi Richardson and Taurean Prince. Both players are regarded as potentially viable defenders at the next level because of their physical tools. However, neither prospect measures particularly well according to DBPM. Their poor statistical performance is likely partially due to the fact that both Richardson and Prince spent the majority of their defensive possessions playing in zone defenses that don’t emphasize individual defensive skill. It will be interesting to keep an eye on how both players perform against NBA level competition when they’re required to defend one-on-one.
It’s also worth highlighting Saint Joseph’s DeAndre Bembry. The 21-year old impressed at the draft combine by showing off his ability to create shots for himself and others from the wing spot, but the knock on him during the process has been his lack of outside shooting. Bembry is one of a handful of wings in the draft with a three-point percentage below the Division I average, but he also has one of the best DBPM’s in the class. Part of that is due to his solid rebounding numbers (17.9 defensive rebound percentage), but he’s impressed others with his ability to guard multiple positions and be disruptive on defense — Bembry posted a 2.2 percent steal rate and a 2.5 percent block rate as a junior. He may not have much of a jump shot yet, but the former Hawk certainly has the defense that characterizes the “3-and-D” wing.
I thought this was an interesting way to get a grasp on the different type of wing prospects available in the 2016 draft. Obviously it has its limitations, but there are still some fun things to be gleaned from the data presented here.
Feel free to drop me a note on Twitter about what other players stick out to you!