MLB Picks: FanDuel Economics for May 25th
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 25th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day with your FanDuel MLB picks!
On Wednesday, we continue with a full slate of games. However, today is a split schedule with 7 of the 15 games scheduled before 7pm ET. The first pitch of the day will be from Steven Matz, as the New York Mets take on Tanner Roark and the Washington Nationals. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB picks for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers - Early
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball picks. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
With the day split and multiple options within each split, I’ve consolidated the pitcher information so you can easily pick between your best value options for each half of the day:
Early
Steven Matz (1:05pm ET) and the New York Mets are taking on a tough Nationals lineup who went yard 5 times yesterday against Matz’ teammate Matt Harvey. But Harvey is having a tough year, and the Nats lineup has been hot and cold this year, often depending on the long-ball. Matz is having a good year, and has been hot lately. Over the last 30 days, Steven averaged 47.8 PPG. With an expensive but reasonable $9,900, Matz has a 4.8X value, 14th among all starting pitchers.
Colby Lewis (2:05pm ET) is also facing a hot and cold lineup in the Los Angeles Angels. However, Lewis has been solidly consistent lately. Over the last month, Colby averaged 34.8 PPG. With a cheap $7,400 salary, Lewis has a good 4.7X value, just below Matz at 16th among all starting pitchers.
We have talked about Aaron Nola (1:10pm ET) multiple times this year. Nola is a good young pitcher on a talented, and young, Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff. Aaron remains hot in May, piling up 42 PPG over the last month. Nola’s salary has climbed to $9,000, but that still gives us another 4.7X value, slightly below Lewis at 18th among all starting pitchers.
Next: Value Pitchers - Late
Value Pitchers
Late
Rubby De La Rosa (7:05pm ET) really struggled at the start of the year, averaging a laughable 6.5 PPG over his first four starts. However, after two very strong games against the Pirates (45 points) and Cardinals (63 points) at the end of April, Rubby has continued to heat up. De La Rosa had some groin issues lately, and a blister on top of that, but he’s still pitching well and should bounce back against the Pirates again tonight. Over the last month, Rubby averaged a very good 41.8 PPG, quite a jump from the early part of the season. De La Rosa’s salary is still very cheap at $6,700, likely waiting for the early part of the season to creep up again, but that’s a fantastic 6.2X value, the best value among all starting pitchers over the last 30 days.
We talked about Junior Guerra (7:10pm ET) before his last start, and he rewarded us, and me, with 57 points against a very good Chicago Cubs lineup. Guerra continues to be hot, averaging 37.5 PPG. Junior also continues to be cheap, a salary of only $7,200, giving us a 5.2X value, 5th among all starting pitchers. I like Guerra again tonight against the Cubs.
Finally, we have yet another great value option in the late slate of the day with Matt Andriese (7:10pm ET). Andriese has only pitched 3 games this year, but won all 3 games. Matt also has a 2.11 ERA in those outings, and 11 K’s over 21 innings. Over the last 30 days, Andriese averaged 39.3 PPG. With another cheap salary of $7,600, Matt provides yet another really good 5.2X value, just below Guerra at 6th among all starting pitchers.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball picks.
Matt Wieters, C, (8:10pm ET) is, again, the best value option among all catchers tonight at 6.2X. If you want to fade Wieters, another good option is Salvador Perez, C, (1:10pm ET), who also has a solid value at 5X.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, (1:10pm ET) is also again the best value option today at his position, first base, at a 5.9X value. If you’re tired of using Miggy, try Logan Morrison, 1B, (7:10pm ET) who’s just below Cabrera with a 5.8X value.
Howie Kendrick, 2B, (10:10pm ET) is a solid value option tonight. Over the past week, value has been dropping significantly among second base options, but Kendrick brings a decent 3.8X value to the dish tonight. That is the best value among all second basemen starting at least 6 games over the last 7 days.
We talked about Anthony Rendon, 3B, (1:05pm ET) last night and after his home run to follow up the discussion, I’d still suggest Anthony is catching fire and remains a good value, 3.5X. However, if you’re picking Matz as your pitcher and decide to fade Rendon, I would look at Todd Frazier, 3B, (2:10pm ET) next, a value at 3.4X just below Rendon.
Brad Miller, SS, (7:10pm ET) has the most PPG over the last week among all shortstops at 12.6 PPG. Along with a cheap $2,900 salary, Miller is the best value option tonight at the shortstop MLB picks position, at 4.3X.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Until Rajai Davis (2:10pm ET) or Paulo Orlando (1:10pm ET) disappointment or become incredibly too expensive, I will continue to suggest you play them, as will I play them. Davis is absolutely on fire lately, I even picked him up as a free agent on my season-long fantasy baseball team. Rajai still has a 6.1X value, which is fantastic compared to all hitter options. Even better is Paulo Orlando, who is earning playing time on a Kansas City Royals team dealing with injuries. Orlando has an 8.2X value and continues to be your best option at outfield.
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Robbie Grossman (1:10pm ET) is becoming an intriguing value option at the outfield position. Grossman has consistently started for the Minnesota Twins since May 20th, and has consistently impressed at the plate. Robbie averaged 16.4 PPG over the last week. With another very cheap salary, at $2,300, Grossman’s value is just below Orlando’s, at 7.1X.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
Next: FanDuel Picks and Pivots - Main Slate
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.