MLB Picks: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots for May 25 (Main)
MLB Picks: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots for May 25 (Main Slate)
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel Baseball Picks. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Wednesday’s Early MLB action kicks off at 1:05 PM EST with 7 games on the afternoon/early slate with another 8 games during the 7:05 PM EST Main slate.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.9 | $ 8,618 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,298 | 7.17 |
| 5 Day | 259.9 | $ 9,980 | 29% | 71% | $ 3,128 | 7.43 |
| Prev Day | 235.3 | $ 13,200 | 38% | 62% | $ 2,725 | 6.72 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Do we have an Ace?
The Main Slate has no clear-cut ace hurler to choose from which makes for an interesting dynamic as pitcher’s that would normally be reserved for strict tournament play will be rolled out in all formats.
Junior Guerra ($7,200) at Atlanta: It says a lot about the slate when Guerra stands out as the clear cut top option in a road start against the Braves. The Braves score the lowest amount of runs per game and have become an easy target for streamers in season long longs and DFS players alike. Guerra on the season has averaged 37.5 points per game, which is roughly 5.2x value, making Guerra the ideal tournament play. Over the last two weeks, Guerra has averaged 49.5 points per game which would return an incredible 6.9x value.
Guerra has a very impressive 24.7% strikeout rate so far this season, with his best game coming last time out against the formidable Cubs lineup when he struck out 11 batters. At this price point and this match-up and especially coming off the last outing, Guerra is a must play for me in all formats.
Matt Andriese ($7,600) at home versus Miami: By the laws of this article I need to give you a pivot option and frankly and although there are no stand out option, Tampa Bay right hander, Matt Andriese does give you a solid option at home on Wednesday night.
Over the last month, spanning 3 starts, Andriese has pitched to a 2.11 ERA on the strength of strong command (only 5 walks in 3 starts) and by leaving base runner’s stranded at a 77% clip which is significantly higher than the league average. My fear with Andriese is his ability to limit scoring will regress and Andriese lacks the strikeout upside we want for tournaments (14%).
Andriese has put up 39.3 points per start this year which would equate to 5.2x value so there is merit in using him in a few lineups. My approach for this slate will be to utilize Guerra in the majority of my lineups but to sprinkle in Andriese in a few lineups to differentiate myself and spread out my risk while loading up on bats.
Next: What bats should you spend on?
Without having to spend up at Starting Pitcher on Wednesday, loading up on some of the big bats with your MLB Picks will be the best way to utilize your savings and maximize your bankroll!
Red Sox at home Versus Chad Bettis: The Red Sox offense has been an absolute force this season, putting up the most runs per game of any team in baseball at 5.82 runs/game. When they play in Fenway, that number spikes to 6.68 which is over a full run higher than the next best team and makes this is an easy target for our MLB Picks on Wednesday night.
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Over the last 2 weeks, the Sox hitters have all been red hot and a stack across all the top end hitters is certainly in play including:
Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4,300): 18.6 ppg over the last two weeks (4.3x value)
David Ortiz ($4,400): 14.7 ppg over the last two weeks (3.3x value)
Mookie Betts ($4,600) : 19.8 ppg over the last two weeks (4.3x value)
Xander Boaegarts($4,400): 14.7 ppg over the last two weeks (3.3x value)
Travis Shaw($3,700): 16.1 ppg over the last two weeks (4.4x value)
Rockies starter Chad Betts does not have extreme splits that favor either side, so a stack using players from both sides of the plate is certainly in play and makes for the best option when trying to put together the top scoring lineup possible.
Next: FanDuel Picks and Pivots - Early Picks
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!