MLB Picks: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots for May 26 (Early Slate)
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel Baseball Picks. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Thursday’s MLB action gives us a rather unique slate on FanDuel with an “Early Only” slate of 3 games which kicks off at 12:35PM EST and another 5 game “Main” slate that starts at 7:05PM EST.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 251.3 | $ 8,632 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,296 | 7.18 |
| 5 Day | 242.8 | $ 9,767 | 28% | 72% | $ 3,154 | 6.94 |
| Prev Day | 274.3 | $ 9,250 | 26% | 74% | $ 3,219 | 7.84 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Early Slate Pitching Choices - Who is our Ace?
The Early Slate on Thursday is much like we had on Wednesday with a few top tier options which allowed us to target elite arms in both cash games and in tournaments when putting together our MLB Picks.
Gerrit Cole ($10,100) at home versus Arizona – The early slate is very interesting as with only three games it would typically give you more clear cut pitching options, but there are two to three elite arms on the slate which makes picking the top option a challenge. Jose Fernandez and Drew Smyly are both tremendous pitchers and having great years, but they face off against each other in Tampa Bay in what Vegas expects to be essentially a “Pick-Em” game.
Cole on the other hand is the largest favorite of any pitcher on the entire Thursday slate as he gets a home start against Patrick Corbin and Arizona. Over his last three starts, Cole has averaged 44 points per start (4.4x value) while striking out 7 batters in 2 of the 3 games.
Being the highest favorite on the board, Cole is the perfect cash game option for me on Thursday’s early slate as the showdown in Tampa Bay between Fernandez and Smyly will be tough to project a winner and the 12 points FanDuel awards for getting the win is too valuable to risk fading Cole here.
Jose Fernandez ($11,000) at Tampa Bay – For $900 more than Cole, we can get a pitcher averaging 54 points per start the last month which is by far the highest of any starter on Thursday’s all day slate. Over his last three starts, Fernandez has averaged a whopping 61 points per start (5.5x value) and has struck out double digit batters in 2 of his 3 games (his last game only a pedestrian 9).
Fernandez has a ridiculous 35.9% K rate this season and frankly no pitcher on Thursday has the upside that Fernandez has and we can get him for only $900 more than Cole. From a tournament perspective, Fernandez is my top choice as his upside is immense and even with the win up in the air, Fernandez could easily put up a 60-70 point game which would be tough to capture elsewhere.
Early Slate Pitching Summary: In cash games, go with the safety of the highest favorite on the board in Cole. In tournaments, Fernandez and his recent surge give him upside that no starter in this slate can match.
Next: Where should we look for offense (Early)?
With only 3 games on the slate and a trio of top end pitchers going, it will be difficult not only to find offense but also find the budget to fit in those high priced hurlers. On a slate like this and especially with it being an afternoon games, it is critical to watch the lineups as easy value can surface as players get the day off!
Yankees versus Toronto – Take a look at the projected runs for Thursday and you will notice that Miami, Arizona and Tampa Bay have the three lowest projected totals which all but rules out 50% of our potential offensive options on Thursday afternoon which almost by default leads us to the game in the Bronx.
The Blue Jays and Yankees have two of the highest projected scores on the day(both around 4.5 runs) as they get to face very hittable left handers in JA Happ and CC Sabathia.
The Blue Jays have been in a slump all year, putting their top bats at reduced price points that frankly make them a must play in a small slate facing a pitcher like Sabathia. Edwin Encarnacion ($3,500), Josh Donaldson ($3,600) and Jose Bautista ($4,500) are almost must plays at these price points and make for a very easy and almost “chalk” stack.
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The one player I want to point out for DFS players and season long players is Devon Travis ($2,200) who returned to the Blue Jays lineup on Wednesday. Travis returned Wednesday and batted in the 8th hole but manager John Gibbons has already discussed moving Travis to lead-off which at this price point in a lineup like Toronto makes him a must play and a great pickup for those in season long games.
Remember that this is a player who in only 62 games last year hit .302 with 8 home runs and if put in the top spot would be an absolute steal as long as his price sits this low.
Early Game Hitting Summary – Wait for the Toronto/NYY lineups to be announced and stack away! The temperature is expected to be summer like in New York on Thursday which should make the ball soar out of Yankee Stadium and you will want as much exposure to this game as possible if you intend to cash out!
Next: DraftKings Early Slate MLB picks
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!