FanDuel Picks: MLB Picks and Pivots for May 27
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel Picks . The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Friday’s MLB action kicks off with an afternoon game at Wrigley if you are looking to play the all-day slate, but the main slate will begin at 7:05PM EST with 14 games.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.4 | $ 8,654 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,293 | 7.15 |
| 5 Day | 250.9 | $ 10,129 | 29% | 71% | $ 3,109 | 7.17 |
| Prev Day | 212.85 | $ 9,500 | 27% | 73% | $ 3,188 | 6.08 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Who is the top choice on the bump?
Friday night’s MLB action has multiple aces on the mound all in decent match-ups however with three pitchers priced over $10k, should we look to pay up at starting pitcher in our FanDuel Picks or try and save some salary to afford some bats in Coors Field?
Max Scherzer ($10,900) at home versus St. Louis – Felix Hernandez is the top priced pitcher on Friday evening with a favorable match-up against the Twins but no pitcher has more upside than Scherzer as he has been the highest scoring pitcher of any of Friday nights options over the last month averaging 53 points per start.
Scherzer has an elite K rate this season of 31.5% which is 5th in all of baseball and as a result he makes for a great tournament option due to his elite strikeout upside.
The match-up against the Cardinals may scare folks away and the fact that for only $100 more you can grab King Felix may lead do depressed ownership which is ideal for large field tournaments. The Cardinals will be without Matt Carpenter on Friday as he is out on paternity leave, and in a similar match-up on Thursday, Nationals starter Joe Ross put up 42 FanDuel points.
Michael Fulmer ($7,400) at Oakland – If you are looking to save salary to afford some of the Coors Field hitters, one of the best value plays may be the Tigers pitcher who was acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes deal last year.
Fulmer has a 28.6% K rate on the season and punched out 11 hitters in his last game against Tampa Bay. Fulmer has struck out at least 6 hitters in his prior 3 outings which sets a solid floor and the fact that he is favored to get the win makes him a great low priced tournament option.
Next: Wait, what about the Dodgers Top Prospect?
Julio Urias ($6,900) at New York Mets – When one of the top prospects in all of baseball is called up, gamers in all formats must take notice. If you are in a season long or dynasty league, stop reading and go check your waiver wire now for Urias as the 19 year old has the stuff to be a dominant front line starting pitcher.
For DFS purposes, rolling out a rookie is always a dangerous proposition but Urias is no ordinary rookie. Urias had a 1.10 ERA in 41 IP at Triple-A this year with a dominant 44:8 K:BB ration and makes for a very interesting “punt” play on Friday.
No pitcher in this price range has the raw potential that Urias has so I will absolutely want some exposure to him in tournaments, but his ownership may be over inflated as the prospect hype machine tends to run wild in situations like these.
Pitching Summary: For Cash games, paying up for the safety of Scherzer may be the best play and he makes for an intriguing tournament option as I expect those paying up for a starting pitcher will opt to pay the additional $100 for King Felix leading to decreased ownership for the Nationals ace. In tournaments where you want to build a Coors Stack
From a tournament perspective, utilizing Fulmer or Urias will allow you to stack the game in Colorado and both pitchers have elite strikeout stuff and could easily hit 5-6x value at these reduced price points.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
With a game in Coors Field we will want to target both the Rockies and Giants when making our FanDuel picks as both offenses are expected to score over 5 runs tonight.
Colorado Rockies versus Matt Cain – Cain has been extraordinarily hittable this season, pitching to a 5.37 ERA giving up 31 ER in 52 IP with 12 home runs. A match-up in Coors Field is not exactly ideal and Carlos Gonzalez at $3,500 is an absolute must play for me in all formats.
CarGo’s price is incredibly undervalued for his recent performance (15.5 ppg over his last 4) and the FanDuel pricing only jumped $500 which him moving to Coors which makes for a great opportunity to crush value on Friday night.
I would expect Gonzalez to be wildly popular on Friday at this price point but this is a dangerous fade and I will look to differentiate elsewhere as you can easily slot in CarGo at this price point even with a top end SP.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000) and Arizona versus LHP Christian Friedrich – Goldschmidt versus a mediocre lefty at home is DFS gold and I expect he will be overlooked with a game in Colorado.
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The Diamondbacks have the 4th highest projected run total on Friday and make for an interesting pivot off Coors field while having similar offensive upside.
Chris Owings ($2,100) makes for a great punt play in the OF as he has the platoon advantage against a LHP and over the last week has been averaging just under 10 points per game which is good for 4.4x value at this price point.
Wilmer Flores ($2,300) – One interesting roster item to keep an eye on is if the Mets activate Flores on Friday night after his stint on the 15 day DL. Flores is SS eligible at near minimum price on FanDuel but is expected to be the everyday first baseman for the Mets with Lucas Duda out for the foreseeable future. Flores makes an interesting bargain play that I expect few gamers will be on.
Hitting Summary: On Friday night, we have 8 teams projected to score 4.5 or more runs including the two teams in Coors. With so many offenses in favorable spots, this actually feels like a spot where you can fade an all out Coors Stack and rather strategically picks a few bats from each of the games while still spending up on a top end hurler.
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!