2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Rade Zagorac
The 2016 NBA Draft could be a historic one for Mega Leks. The Adriatic League squad from Sremska Mitrovica, Serbia has three potential first-round picks entering the draft, and if all three went in the first round, it would be the first time that happened in NBA Draft History. Mega Leks should have at least two players go in the first round, with shooting guard Timothe Luwawu getting lottery consideration, and center Ivica Zubac projected to go late in the round. Draft followers should already be familiar with those two names, but the idea there’s a third may have been surprising to some. While Luwawu and Zubac have received the bulk of the attention from NBA scouts this season, Rade Zagorac has flown under the radar. The 6-9 wing has only recently shown up on draft boards, sitting at number 36 on Draft Express. However, with his size and offensive ability, he’s shown to be an NBA-level prospect, who could go early in the 2nd round or perhaps even in the late 1st.
Zagorac is Serbian, hailing from Belgrade. The 20-year old is the elder statesman of the three, having been with Mega Leks since the junior team, and spending three of the last four seasons with them, with a one-year hiatus at KK Smederevo on loan in 2013-2014. Last year, Zagorac was more of a complimentary piece next to league MVP and current Denver Nugget Nikola Jokic, averaging 10.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists as Mega Leks finished 10th in the Adriatic League. The early part of the season was lost for Zagorac, as Luwawu stole the show for Mega Leks while Zagorac sat out all but six Adriatic League games thanks to a broken hand suffered while falling on a dunk against Red Star Belgrade. However, Zagorac returned for Serbian league play, and he’s been on a tear since returning — 14.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.5 steals per game.
Offense
Zagorac’s offensive abilities center around his quirky, off-balance, high level isolation game. He’s averaged 19.3 points per 40 minutes, and much of that has come with the ball in his hands. Watching his performance in the ABA semifinal against Buducnost, it becomes quickly clear that Zagorac is good at putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim:
Zagorac’s scoring game is very throwback, as he relies on jerky, off-kilter movements and his excellent handle to get to the rim one-on-one. He doesn’t have the athleticism of guys like Luwawu but his size helps him compensate for a lack of elite quickness. He’s also good at finishing against contact, using his length and strong upper body to power through the trees. While “small sample-size theatre” applies to his stats this year, he’s shooting 59.6 percent from the field in Serbian League play, and he’s drawing 5.6 free throw attempts per 40 minutes, which is a solid rate, especially for a career 76 percent free throw shooter. Zagorac rarely settles for jumpers off of his isolation looks, as he struggles with shooting consistency off the bounce. That will be an area for Zagorac to improve on if he’s going to be a solid isolation scorer in the NBA. However, given his finishing ability and size, it wouldn’t be hard to see him translate into a decent off-ball slasher at the next level.
Shooting is a bit of a struggle for Zagorac, as he lacks consistency with his form and his release. He’s had stretches of strong shooting throughout his career (37.9 percent in the ABA last year, 47.1 percent in Serbian play this year), but he’s a career 33.9 percent shooter from outside.
If you get past the crossover that puts Quincy Miller on roller skates, you can see the inconsistencies with Zagorac’s motion. His feet aren’t set, despite him having all the time in the world to do so. There’s no follow through, and he fades back unnecessarily as he releases. Zagorac isn’t shy about shooting, and if he can hit 33-34 percent from three in the NBA, that’d be enough for his other talents to allow him to stay on the floor.
Zagorac is probably a full-time perimeter player in the NBA, but his post game should translate well to working against NBA wings. Zagorac has excellent touch from the post, and a wide array of moves that make him dangerous: A solid turnaround jumper, a decent spin move, and a wide array of up-and-under tricks that he can work his way into even on drives:
Zagorac also is a decent playmaker out of the post, and this season he’s shown an improved playmaking ability. Zagorac in the past has been a player who gets tunnel vision, attacking to the point of recklessness and missing open teammates in the halfcourt. He’s gotten better there, posting an assist rate of 17.8 percent this year, after hovering around 10-12 percent previously. He’ll need to continue to improve with his playmaking and decision-making, though, because his turnover rate is very concerning (19.7 percent this year).
Defense
Zagorac’s size and length mean that there’s some potential that he could become an okay defender with better technique. However, in one-on-one situations, he struggles to contain penetration, and he will really struggle if his footwork doesn’t improve. Even when he does a decent job of recovering and directing a player into a rim protector, getting a drive started against Zagorac is pretty easy:
Zagorac is a better off the ball at this point, as he’s a decent defensive rebounder and his length allows him to play passing lanes pretty well, to the tune of a 3.6 percent steal rate. But even off the ball, Zagorac can be prone to losing guys, and he’s not quick enough to really be able to recover when the ball is swung cross-court. Simply put, Zagorac is a total project on this end.
Overall Outlook
Zagorac is firmly the third-best prospect of the Mega Leks trio, even though he’s probably the best pure scorer of the three at this juncture. With his size and quirky offensive game, he could definitely find a role as an NBA small forward. However, he needs more development, particularly on the defensive side of the ball and with discipline on both ends. He’s a guy who should definitely be grabbed in the 2nd round this year, and if he moves on to a more prolific European club, should get another good year or two of development before considering coming over. When he does make the move across the pond, he should have a role as a bench scoring wing who presents mismatches against smaller guards and can run a second unit from the forward position.