DraftKings Early MLB Picks For May 30
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For May 30
First of all, let’s take the time to thank all of our veterans for their service to their country, and take a moment of silence for all of those no longer with us on this Memorial Day.
There are ten afternoon games on this holiday Monday, which makes this the larger tournament of the day. There are a lot of stats to go through, and a few good options. Let’s find out what the past stats say!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Junior Guerra has never faced the Cardinals, and poses a pretty big risk with nothing to back up using him. Rookie Edwin Escobar is making his first start against Houston today. It will be tempting you use him, but you are really playing with fire if you do.
Surprisingly, Kendall Graveman has never faced the Minnesota Twins. They beat up Felix Hernandez on Friday and swept the Mariners in Seattle. Do you trust Graveman and his 5.36 ERA?
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jeff Samardzija ($12,200): The Shark is back to his old dominant self this year, and he is facing a Braves offense that has bordered on pathetic. His mound opponent is a young pitcher who has not had success against the Giants. Oh, and the Braves have only hit .213 against Samardzija in 47 at bats with a homer (by Gordon Beckham), two RBI, and eight strikeouts. He shouldn’t have a problem being the high scorer of the afternoon.
Josh Tomlin ($7,900): Tomlin is an impressive 7-0 with a 3.35 ERA this year, and he is facing a team in the Texas Rangers that he has fared very well against. The Rangers are hitting just .182 off of Tomlin in 44 at bats, but they have scored seven runs and only struck out nine times. Tomlin is never going to strike out a lot of batters, but he gets enough outs to make him a good option.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Wright ($8,300): You know how I feel about small sample sizes, but Wright has yet to allow a hit to a current Oriole in 12 at bats and has struck out five of them. Of course, starting against a team can be different than pitching in relief, but Wright’s success against Baltimore is at least worth noting.
Carlos Martinez ($7,400): Martinez has dominated the Brewers so far in his career. The Brew Crew is only hitting .220 against Martinez in 41 at bats with only two extra base hits, three runs scored, and 14 strikeouts. This looks like a really good matchup for Carlos.
Ervin Santana ($7,100): Santana has held the A’s to a .225 average in 129 at bats, but has given up five homers and 17 RBI while striking out only 20. One player has hit all five home runs off of Santana (more on that later), but he only has one on the season. Does that make you feel a little better about Using Santana? It should!
Dark Horses:
Alex Wood ($7,200): Wood has pitched well against the Cubs so far in his career. The North Siders are only hitting .207 against Wood with a homer and two RBI (all by the same person) while striking out six. It’s a risk starting him against a hot Cubs team and an ever hotter Jason Hammel.
Chad Bettis ($5,200): Bettis pitched well against the Reds back on April 20th, striking out seven in six innings and earning 15.7 DraftKings points. However, that game was in Cincinnati. Do you trust him in Denver?
Dan Straily ($5,000): Straily was brilliant against the Dodgers his last time out, racking up a career high 11 strikeouts. He has also held the Rockies to a .174 average in 23 at bats with just one extra base hit and two runs scored. The bad news? He only struck out four, and his matchup today is in Coors Field. Proceed with caution. There is likely a reason he is so cheap.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Colby Lewis is happy that he wont have to face Michael Brantley, who is 7-16 off of him, but plenty of other Cleveland players have hit him well. Lonnie Chisenhall ($2,900) is 3-7 with a double and four RBI. Rajai Davis ($3,600) is 8-22(.364) with a double and two RBI. Jason Kipnis ($4,300) is 4-12 with two doubles. Carlos Santana ($4,300) is 5-12(.417) with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI. I will add the caveat that Colby Lewis is 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA this year and that most stacks against him haven’t worked as well this year.
Brandon Belt ($3,800) is 3-6 with a solo homer off of Mike Foltynewicz. Brandon Crawford ($3,900) is also 3-6, but he has two homers and three driven in. Buster Posey ($4,400) is 2-6 off of Foltynewicz, but both hits are homers and he has driven in four.
It’s a very small sample size, but Adam Rosales and Melvin Upton Jr. have both managed to take Nathan Karns deep for solo home runs.
Next: More Notes For 5-29
Adrian Beltre ($3,800) is the only Ranger with any kind of success against Josh Tomlin. Beltre is 3-7 with a double, a homer, and five RBI against Tomlin.
Yoenis Cespedes ($4,100) could be the best bargain of the day. He clobbered Jose Quintana when he was with the Tigers. Cespedes is 9-15(.600) with a walk, two doubles, a triple, four homers, and a whopping ten RBI off of Quintana.
Kris Bryant‘s ($4,700) only hit in three at bats against Alex Wood is a two run homer.
Howie Kendrick ($3,400) is 7-16(.438) with a walk, two doubles, and five RBI against Jason Hammel. Hammel is just glad he wont have to face Andre Ethier. Ethier is 10-29 in his career off of Hammel.
Billy Butler ($3,200) is 8-34(.235) against Ervin Santana, but he has six walks, a double, five homers, and nine RBI against him. Butler finally hit his first homer of the year last night. Is that the start of something? We will find out against Santana!
Jimmy Rollins ($3,500) is 5-19(.263) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI against Matt Harvey from his days with the Phillies. Can he get to the struggling Harvey again?
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play an FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!