Debating Henry Ellenson’s NBA value and potential landing spots

JZ Mazlish and I got together this weekend to discuss potential landing spots for Marquette’s Henry Ellenson and what the big man can bring to the NBA team that drafts him. Ellenson is one of many front court prospects who could be selected in the lottery come June.

Chris (@cstonehoops): What’s up, JZ?

One of the players that’s experienced a slight downfall in the past couple of months is Marquette’s Henry Ellenson. Whether it’s because he didn’t play in the NCAA Tournament or because draft analysts have begun to scour the film a bit more closely during the offseason, it seems like Ellenson has gone from a potential top five pick frequently mentioned alongside Minnesota at the fifth pick to the back end of the lottery. Why do you think that is and what are your initial impressions of him?

JZ (@jzmazlish): Not much Chris, getting pretty pumped for this draft.

I think his fall in the past couple months can largely be explained by two things — shooting and defense. Ellenson came into college with a reputation as a floor spacer, but ended up only shooting 28.8 percent from three. I think there was a perception that his shooting would pick up over the course of the season, and since it never did he ended up dropping a little bit.

Defensively, there seems to be a growing concern that he won’t be able to guard in space. The Kevin Love comparison has always followed him due to physical appearance and similar playstyles, and the way Kevin Love’s defense has come into question of late has probably hurt Ellenson a bit.

In terms of my impressions, I’ve always been a big fan of his offensive game. Developing a consistent three-point shot is obviously huge, but his ability to handle and pass the ball at his size is pretty special. The defense is obviously more concerning, but with how big he measured at the combine, there’s some real hope he could play center at the next level. Also, he’s a pretty fluid mover in straight lines, so there might be real hope he can improve his lateral mobility more than expected. What do you think his chances are of being a decent NBA defender, and do you see him as strictly a power forward or possibly a center as well?

Chris: Those two explanations are spot on in my mind.

I think Ellenson projects much better as a power forward than as a center. Certainly, his offensive game would be more valuable at the center spot because he would create greater mismatches by forcing opposing centers out to the perimeter, but I think it would also heavily emphasize his defensive weaknesses. There’s no question that whenever Ellenson is on the floor, opposing teams are going to attempt to take advantage of him by throwing him in pick-and-roll at every opportunity whatever position he plays, similar to how the Warriors have attacked Enes Kanter during the playoffs. However, with Ellenson at center, he’ll also be asked to protect the rim and guard bigger opponents. During his lone season at Marquette, he wasn’t particular adept at the former, posting a 4.4 percent block rate and rejecting less than two shots per 40 minutes. He also struggles to maintain position against bigger opponents and I fear that he would just get backed down on the low block frequently.

Where do you fall on this one? Does his offensive upside justify the defensive struggles and if so, how much of that depends on him knocking down his outside shots?

JZ: One thing I will say is that at Marquette he played next to a traditional center in Luke Fischer, and while he definitely would struggle as a rim protector in the NBA, his block numbers were suppressed by playing as a true 4. The other thing with his defense is that he currently has a pretty doughy frame, and there’s a real chance once he slims down his mobility improves enough to be closer to average then Kanter/Love level. I agree he probably projects better as a power forward, but I think he could take more minutes at center than most expect – he’s already a great rebounder.

Your question about whether the offense justifies the D irrespective of his outside shot is particularly interesting to me. Without a reliable consistent three-point shot I think he can still be a good offensive scorer/creator in space, but more strictly a bench offense type. With the outside shot he could be pretty Paul Millsap like in his ability to both stretch the floor and attack, in which case the offense would justify most levels of defense.

Are you with me on that balance, or do you think he would be better/worse even sans shot? And what type of confidence level do you have in the shot developing?

Chris: I think that’s probably about right, especially if he becomes a respectable three-point shooter. That’s the key to him being a starting quality NBA player. There are some signs that his three-point percentage this season was more anomaly than fact. For starters, he attempted just 104 threes, a drop in the bucket over the long-term. He was also a reputable shooter coming out of high school and his coach had the confidence in him to let him fire almost four threes per 40 minutes. Finally, his free throw percentage (74.9) would suggest that there’s nothing inherently wrong with his shooting stroke.

We seem to be largely in agreement about what type of offensive player Ellenson can be at the next level and perhaps slightly apart on his defensive upside. Let’s try to put a bow on this discussion. Where do you think he’ll go in the draft and what’s your ideal fit for him?

JZ: I would guess he ends up in the back half of the lottery, which is something I can get behind, but I do like him more than similarly good O/bad D prospects like Murray and Hield. Compared to those guys he’s got a more versatile offensive game for his position and a greater chance of defending adequately in my opinion. No. 9 might be a touch high for him, but I like his fit in Toronto if they’re looking for an upgrade on Luis Scola who could space the floor a little more. Your thoughts?

Chris: Toronto is a solid fit for him. They definitely need to find an upgrade over Scola that can help open up the floor for Lowry and potentially DeRozan. I agree, though, that it may be just a bit high. One other landing spot I really like is Phoenix at the No. 13 pick. The Suns need a replacement for Markieff Morris after shipping him off to Washington and what better ending than using the Wizards’ pick to find him? Ellenson can provide some of the same floor spacing and rebounding that Morris took with him and get Alex Len out of the starting lineup.

Check out Ellenson’s scouting report.