2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Wade Baldwin IV

Wade Baldwin IV could be one of the gems of the 2016 draft class. The 20-year old played two seasons at Vanderbilt, showing nice progression from his freshman to sophomore season. Baldwin averaged 14.1 points, 5.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, while shooting 42.7 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from beyond the arc this season for the Commodores.

Baldwin has one of the best physical profiles of any prospect in this class, leaving scouts enamored with his potential. The son of a former CIA worker, Baldwin has an edge to him that I really like and his competitiveness has shined through in his pre-draft workouts. However, a lot of scouts view Baldwin as a very flawed player and he’s ranked by most draft sites in the 15-20 range. I’m in a different line of thinking when it comes to Baldwin and his upside. I think he’s a top ten talent in a weaker draft class and could be a player general managers end up kicking themselves for passing on in years to come.

Offense

Baldwin’s athleticism is a key part of his offensive game, yes he’s not super explosive, but he does possess good first step quickness and can get by most defenders. His ball handling ability isn’t great by any means, but is servicable enough and he can create his own shot off the dribble. Baldwin’s incredible length (6-11.25″ wingspan) allows him to finish over just about anybody at the rim, showcasing enough strength to either draw contact or finish through. He doesn’t have great touch around the rim, which is a bit concerning, but he does have the upper body build to power through most defenders at the rim. Baldwin also does a great job of utilizing his length to adjust his shot against defenders at the rim, while also using body to protect his shot from incoming defenders.

The offensive skill that will translate the quickest to the NBA level for Baldwin, will be his shooting ability. Baldwin shot 42.2 percent from the three-point line in his two seasons at Vanderbilt, hitting 84 of 199 attempts. He doesn’t have the cleanest looking shot or the best shooting mechanics, displaying not much elevation on his shot and a long wind up. Baldwin is fairly limited in terms of his ability to shoot off the dribble, it’s something he can do, but is clearly not all that comfortable with yet. Most of Baldwin’s shots are catch and shoot three’s, either coming off of screens or with him in a standstill position, something that will be utilized immediately by whatever team selects him on June 23rd.

Baldwin is an adequate and willing passer, but doesn’t possess the elite vision you’d like to see from an NBA point guard. Most of the reads he makes are fairly simple, which you could chalk up to his playmaking ability being underutilzed by head coach Kevin Stallings. However, I just don’t think Baldwin has natural playmaking instincts and he’s not great at creating for others. His decision making isn’t great, he telegraphs passes quite often and doesn’t show a great feel in the pick and roll. This makes me question his ability to not only create for others in the halfcourt, but if he can ever truly run an NBA offense. You’ll see in one of the GIF’s below, where Baldwin get’s trapped off the pick and roll, instead of making the easy pass to Jones he settles for a tough fadeaway jumper which he air balls.

Baldwin is at his best offensively when attacking in transition. His first step quickness shines and he seems to always make a positivie play out of a fast break opportunity. When he’s able to let loose and just go, Baldwin really stands out in transition and seems to thrive playing at a faster tempo. Baldwin puts pressure on the defense immediately in transition, looking to attack before the defense ever has a chance to set up.

Defense

Baldwin’s length, lateral quickness and quick hands really shine on the defensive end. He’s a very good on ball defender, again showcasing the lateral quickness to stay in front of smaller guards and then the elite length to bother bigger guards and even some forwards. Baldwin does a good job of staying low in his stance and giving his man no room to work, constantly forcing them to work for an opening. Baldwin’s also pretty good at reading and getting through screens, which really shows while he’s defending in the pick and roll.

He’s not nearly as good off ball defensively, but does force his man to work for an open shot and has the elite length to break up passes, when his man is cutting or trying to get a open shot off a screen. Baldwin’s defensive potential could be as big as any prospect in this class, because of his combination of elite length and lateral quickness. With the right coaching, Baldwin could end up being one of the premier perimeter defenders in the NBA one day, especially at the point guard position.

Like many young players, Baldwin does struggle on the defensive end either getting caught watching the ball or trying to help too much. This has more to do with Baldwin just trying to do too much more than his lack of awareness on the defensive end of the floor. Obviously, this is something that could get him in trouble in today’s NBA, especially given the recent surge of teams relying on movement and three-point shooting. With the right the coaching, Baldwin can easily improve his discipline as a defender and learn that he doesn’t have to guard the entire team by himself, letting his teammates do their job as well.

Overall Outlook

Baldwin is a prospect who as mentioned earlier, most scouts and analysts seems to be split on. Some see him as a mid 1st round talent, while others believe him to be a top ten elite prospect. I tend to side with the latter party, believeing that Baldwin will develop into a heck of player in the NBA.  The floor for Baldwin is he ends up really never being able to run an NBA offense and becomes a combo guard, in the traditional “3-and-D” mold, which wouldn’t be all that bad.

His ceiling however, could be enormous. Scouts far too often like to compare athletic guard prospects to Oklahoma City Thunder star Russell Westbrook, which I’m always very hesitant to do personally. In the case of Wade Baldwin though, I think it’s a pretty fair comparison for the best case scenario for him. Baldwin’s physical profile is eerily similar’s to that of Westbrook’s and his overally limitations currently, are very similar to the ones Westbrook had coming out of UCLA. The tables below show both Baldwin and Westbrook’s respective measurements from the NBA combine, as well as their stats from their sophomore seasons.

There’s no question Westbrook is more explosive than Baldwin and plays with much more ferocity, that is pretty evident, but again much of the same criticisms Westbrook had coming out of UCLA are the same criticisms Baldwin is receiving currently. It won’t happen immediately for Baldwin and it didn’t happen immediately for Westbrook in Oklahoma City, but given 2-3 years, I believe Baldwin can develop into a point guard with a very similar style of play. When we look back on this class, I think Baldwin will be one of the steals, just like Westbrook was when he fell to the 4th pick in 2008 behind the likes of Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo.

Whatever team selects Baldwin come June 23rd should be thrilled to land him. Given the appropriate time to continue to develop his ball handling skills, decision making and mid-range game, Baldwin can flourish into a Russell Westbrook type guard. I firmly believe he will and look forward to seeing what he becomes at the next level.