2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Chinanu Onuaku

Tumultuous is a polite way of describing the Louisville Cardinals’ 2015-16 college basketball season. Fresh off of an Elite Eight, Rick Pitino’s squad seemed poised to once again put together a solid year with graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis joining the program to help fill the scoring hole left by the 2015 class. And then, all hell broke loose. Shortly before the start of the season, Katina Powell released a book alleging that the Louisville basketball program paid escorts to entertain recruits on campus visits. The scandal ultimately caused the Cardinals’ athletics department to self-impose a one-year postseason ban, ending the hopes of another NCAA Tournament run.

Amidst the fallout of the recruiting scandal, Louisville compiled a 23-8 record, including a 12-6 mark during its second year of competition in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and individual players delivered performances that would help bolster their NBA draft stock. One of those prospects was center Chinanu Onuaku, a Maryland native who caught the eye of scouts because of his size, passing, and defensive ability.

Onuaku checks just about every statistical box. Size? At 6-10 with a 7-2.75 wingspan and a 9-0.5 standing reach, he has a solid physique to player the center position in the NBA. Statistical production? During his sophomore season, he delivered impressive per 40 minute numbers, compiling 16.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks while shooting 62.0 percent from the field. Advanced measures also like the Louisville big man. His 13.9 Box Plus/Minus rating was the third best mark in all of college basketball and was primarily made up of his 10.2 Defensive Box Plus/Minus score. Age? Onuaku is just 19-years old, younger than many of the freshmen prospects in the class, so he has plenty of room to grow before he hits his peak.

Despite his impressive numbers, Onuaku wasn’t a lock to enter the draft. In early March, he announced the would be testing the waters and it took until the withdrawal deadline for college players for him to confirm that he would forgo his final two seasons of eligibility.

Offense

Onuaku was far from an offensive focal point during his time at Louisville. As a sophomore, he attempted approximately 19.5 percent of his team’s shots when he was on the floor, according to KenPom and he used the fourth lowest percentage of his team’s possessions among college center prospects, per DraftExpress. The Cardinals’ offense is heavily focused on creating open looks for the team’s guards, but Onuaku also has very few NBA ready skills on the offensive end.

The 19-year old is going to collect most of his points either on offensive rebound putbacks, dump-offs, or lobs. 53.3 percent of his field goal makes were assisted last season while another 38 of his 221 total field goal attempts came on putbacks within four seconds of grabbing an offensive board, per hoop-math. He is a very good offensive rebounder, grabbing 13.8 percent of his team’s available misses. His length, large frame, and effort allow him to regularly compete on the offensive glass. At this point, most of Onuaku’s points are going to be the result of those effort plays and making himself available:

The big man is not a consistent pick-and-roll threat yet. Last season, only 8.6 percent of his offensive possessions involved pick-and-roll and he scored just .815 points per possession (27th percentile nationally) on those actions, per Synergy Sports. His footwork in these situations isn’t great and he really struggles to hold onto the ball in traffic, often bringing it low allowing smaller players to slap at it. Onuaku does have decent hands, though, and he could become a solid pick-and-roll player with additional deliberate practice given his low usage in college.

Onuaku’s post-up game is largely non-existent. He struggles to advance position because he lacks the moves necessary to do so. His best scoring chance from the post is a right-handed hook shot that he has some difficulty converting against longer players. Given that he’s about an inch or two shorter than most NBA centers, it’s not clear that his hook shot will be a viable offensive tool at the next level. Onuaku also lacks much of a mid-range game. His jump shot needs significant work if it’s going to become a reliable option in the NBA. He often shoots from unbalanced positions, has an awkward release, and flails his elbows out wide:

Onuaku’s shooting stroke is broken enough that between his freshman and sophomore season, he changed his free throw motion from a traditional release to the “granny shot” motion used by Rick Barry. While he increased his free throw percentage as a sophomore to 58.9 percent and his switch does show a willingness to adjust his game to improve, it’s worth noting just how limited Onuaku’s shooting abilities are. There’s no doubt that NBA coaches will pay attention and likely emply the “hack-a” strategy with him at times throughout games.

Although Onuaku is going to struggle to score to begin his NBA career, he has the highest assists per possessions ratio of any collegiate center in the draft and posted a 12.9 assist rate as a sophomore. He is a promising passer from a stand still who is capable of finding three-point shooters along the perimeter or cutters in the lane:

Onuaku’s role as a facilitator is somewhat offset, though, by his high turnover rate (23.3) percent. Those turnovers were often the result of errant passes, poor ball control, or illegal screens.

The 19-year old prospect should expect to struggle significantly on offense during his first few seasons in the association and it might be best if he’s given some time in the D-League to help refine his scoring ability in pick-and-roll actions. If he can become a competent passing and scoring threat in those situations, Onuaku can be a plus offense player at the next level.

Defense

While Onuaku’s offensive game isn’t ready for the NBA, he could contribute defensively rather quickly. When evaluating the defensive prospects of a big man in the modern NBA, there are three primary things to look for: 1) how well he can defend in space, particularly against the pick-and-roll, 2) if he can protect the rim, and 3) whether or not he can help end defensive possessions by grabbing rebounds. This list isn’t exhaustive (one-on-one post defense sticks out), but it will provide a pretty good idea of how valuable a defender a front court player can be.

The ability to defend in space is increasingly important for NBA big men because they are often tasked with either containing or switching onto guards in pick-and-rolls. The inability to defend in these situations can be a death knell to a team’s defense (Kevin Love) or simply cause a player to not be used in certain matchups (Enes Kanter vs. the Warriors). Because of Louisville’s 2-3 matchup zone, Onuaku wasn’t frequently required to defend against pick-and-roll actions in college. When he was, he would often sag back, allowing the guard to take a jumper while he patrolled the painted area. However, on occasion, Onuaku was called into action. In those instances, it appeared that he wasn’t particularly comfortable and lacked some of the knowledge necessary to guard pick-and-rolls regularly. Guards could take advantage by either turning the corner and forcing help, allowing them to find open shooters or simply by blowing by him:

The good news is that Onuaku’s struggles don’t appear to be related to his ability to move laterally. He is actually quite agile on the defensive end  and was occasionally called on to defend the perimeter from the corner on rotations in the zone. Here’s a good example of Onuaku’s movement as he cuts off a drive by Duke’s Grayson Allen and then recovers to challenge a three-pointer in the corner:

As a rim protector, the lengthy big man fits the bill. There is probably a bit of inflation due to the amount of time Onuaku spent in the painted area playing in the middle of the zone, but he posted outstanding numbers as a sophomore, averaging 3.3 blocks per 40 minutes with a 9.7 percent block rate. He has a good feel for where shots are going to come from and is capable of moving into position to challenge them. He also recovers well and has good timing to challenge shots. Like most young bigs, Onuaku does have some trouble staying on the court (4.8 fouls per 40), but he should be able to overcome that as he matures and becomes more disciplined about what shots to chase.

Onuaku is also an excellent defensive rebounder for reasons similar to why he succeeds on the offensive boards. He averaged 13.8 rebounds per 40 minutes last season, the fourth best mark among all college prospects in the draft, and his 25.8 defensive rebound percentage was the 36th best rating in college hoops.

The Louisville prospect has the potential to become one of the better front court defenders from this draft class. He needs to work on his fundamentals defending the pick-and-roll, but the 19-year old is already an effective rim protector and defensive rebounder.

Outlook

The 19-year old center seems most likely to come off the board somewhere between pick 20 and pick 45 on draft night. If a team falls in love with his youth and defensive skill set, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make him a first round selection in the early 20s, but with such a limited offensive game, it’s possible he could slide.

Onuaku’s ceiling is as a high-quality defensive center who can offer a few buckets on offense, but it’s difficult to see him becoming a significant offensive contributor at the next level. However, his defensive abilities should be good enough to keep him on a roster for much of his career and if he can continue to become a better passer, he could be a starting quality player.