Kevin Love’s concussion may have a silver lining for the Cavaliers

After suffering a concussion during the second quarter of Game 2 in the 2016 NBA Finals, Kevin Love’s availability for Wednesday’s Game 3 and beyond is suddenly in doubt. He is currently listed as questionable.

Injuries are bad, especially ones as potentially nebulous as concussions. No one should be happy about what’s happened to Love. However, injuries can force adaptation and, as strange as it may sound, that could end up being a blessing in disguise for the Cleveland Cavaliers, particularly head coach Tyronn Lue.

Facing a 2-0 series deficit against the Golden State Warriors, Lue couldn’t head into Game 3 with the same game plan and expect drastically different results. While he bemoaned the Cavaliers’ inefficiency in the paint following their 15-point loss in Game 1, a resounding 33-point thumping in Game 2 left him grasping for straws afterward.

“I just think we know we’ve got to play better,” Lue said during his postgame press conference. “It isn’t anything mental. We’ve just got to play harder, play better, and we’ll be fine.”

Heading into the series, Love loomed as a major swing factor for Cleveland, as his struggles guarding pick-and-rolls threatened to undermine the Cavaliers defense. Prior to finding himself on the receiving end of Harrison Barnes’ elbow Sunday, those concerns proved founded. The Warriors repeatedly picked Love apart defensively, as Cleveland’s switch-heavy strategy often left Golden State with wide-open shots whenever Love found himself involved in a play.

Early in Game 2, the Warriors sputtered offensively, scoring just four points in the first four minutes as Cleveland jumped out to an 8-4 lead. With Kyrie Irving guarding Stephen Curry and Love marking Andrew Bogut, the Aussie big man signaled to Klay Thompson to scoot across the court, leaving just Irving and Love between Curry and the basket. As Love cheated toward Thompson temporarily, Bogut ran out to set a screen on Irving, giving Curry the choice between a wide-open three-pointer or an easy deuce for Andre Iguodala.

He chose the latter:

This was hardly an isolated incident. Once the Warriors discovered that Cleveland’s defensive game plan called for Love to switch onto their ball-handlers in pick-and-rolls—much to their delight—they frequently targeted him throughout Game 1:

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Kyle Wagner, on the 13 shots in which Love was the nearest defender in Game 1, “the Warriors had an eFG% of 61.5.” He allowed 94.1 points per 100 chances on screen-and-rolls in Game 1, per Wagner, a significant jump over his 90.3-per-100 mark from the regular season. Had the Warriors not bricked so many open shots in Game 1, those individual marks would have been even worse.

Given the small sample size, it’s dangerous to put too much stock into lineup-based defensive metrics two games into a series. However, the Warriors have outscored Cleveland’s starting five by 8.9 points per 100 possessions during their 32 minutes of court time, and it’s far more ghastly when subbing out Tristan Thompson for Richard Jefferson. In those 13 minutes, Cleveland’s offense has come to life, averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, but the Cavs have hemorrhaged 126.5 per 100 on the other end of the court.

It’s more instructive, perhaps, to look at the Cavaliers’ on-off splits from their death march through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, as a similar trend holds true when it comes to Love. Through the first three rounds, Cleveland averaged a sizzling 121.5 points per 100 possessions during Love’s playing time—a mark that would have smashed the Warriors’ league-best offensive rating of 112.5 during the regular season—but they coughed up 105.6 per 100. When he sat, the Cavs’ offensive rating plunged to 104.8, but they allowed only 97.2 points per 100 possessions, the second-best mark of any rotation player (trailing only Irving).

With Love’s status for Game 3 up in the air, Lue must face the fundamental flaw of his team head-on: Given their defensive limitations, Love and Irving need to have their minutes staggered for the remainder of the series. Through two games, however, they’re Cleveland’s fifth-most-used two-man duo, despite posting a net rating of minus-14.7 per 100 possessions.

According to ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe, the Warriors coaching staff was “quietly fretting when both Love and Irving” missed a majority of last year’s Finals, as it forced “the Cavs to play superior defenders in their place.” No one will mistake Matthew Dellavedova for Irving on offense, but his aggressive style of defense frustrated Curry through Game 2 and much of Game 3 in that series. Timofey Mozgov quickly became irrelevant when the Warriors began starting their “Death Lineup,” but he helped Cleveland finish with a sizable advantage on the glass.

After Game 2, Lue wisely didn’t divulge how he’d adjust if Love did have to miss time, but losing a starter will force him to radically alter his rotations. Perhaps he moves Dellavedova or Iman Shumpert into the starting lineup, attempting to beat Golden State at its own small-ball game. Maybe he brings Mozgov back into the starting lineup to match minutes with Bogut, aiming to set a physical tone from the get-go in Game 3. Channing Frye, who has strangely played only 11 minutes through the first two games, will almost assuredly get more run in Love’s absence. Best of all, Lue wouldn’t have to worry about bruising Love’s ego by reducing his playing time or moving him to the bench.

Given Love’s oft-tenuous spot in the hierarchy of Cleveland’s Big Three, any alteration to his typical minutes allocation would receive an enormous amount of attention at this stage of the Finals. If the Cavaliers can’t come back against the Warriors, he could find himself as the odd man out this offseason, as Cleveland will almost assuredly dangle him as trade bait. Love being unable to play in Game 3 would temporarily relegate that conversation to the back-burner, as his reduction in playing time wouldn’t come just because of his own poor play.

Needing to win four out of the next five games against a team that has dropped just 14 games throughout the regular season and playoffs is a near-impossible task for the Cavaliers as is. Being devoid of a potent stretch-4 such as Love should, on paper, only further complicate matters for Cleveland. His potential absence, though, will force Lue into making wholesale changes that he might not have otherwise been inclined to pursue.

Will it help the Cavaliers steal Game 3 and get back into the series? Given how resoundingly the Warriors have thrashed Cleveland through the first two games, possibly not. With Wednesday’s contest effectively being the Cavaliers’ last stand, however—they’re not winning four straight against Golden State—it’s time for Lue to throw the kitchen sink at the Warriors. Love’s concussion may coerce him into going even deeper into his bag of desperate tricks.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com.

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