NBA Finals: Where is LeBron’s jumpshot?
By Ian Levy
The offense of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been an unmitigated disaster in the NBA Finals so far. Their defense hasn’t been much better but to keep this column from devolving into a total bummer, we’ll keep things focused on offense.
Of all the developments, and there have been many, the ways in which the Golden State Warriors’ defense has made LeBron look human have been the most striking. As he tries to batter and force his way through Golden State’s defense, it has become increasingly obvious how little faith he has in his jumpshot. This phenomenon, which has not really been explained, began last season when LeBron’s three-point percentage bottomed out. His accuracy has never really returned and that shakiness has dramatically warped his shot distribution.
LeBron just doesn’t seem to take jumpers anymore. The graph below shows his average shot distance season-by-season, for both the regular season and playoffs.
After peaking in the last two seasons of his first stint with Cleveland, LeBron’s shot distance declined steadily during his time with the Miami Heat. Although he was a more efficient three-point shooter in Miami, he also worked around the basket more. His shot distance rose last season with the Cavaliers but has fallen off a cliff this year.
LeBron’s average shot distance this season was a career-low, for both the regular season and playoffs, dropping below 10 feet for the first time ever. It has essentially declined by two feet in one year and, for comparison, his average shot distance this season was the same as Dwyane Wade’s.
Looking at his career, season-by-season, by the percentage of his field goal attempts that came as jumpers and his effective field goal percentage on all jumpers, reveals just how far things have fallen.
This season jumpshots made up a smaller portion of LeBron’s field goal attempts than at any other point in his career. The difference is enormous — seven fewer jumpers per 100 shot attempts than his previous career low, and 15 fewer jumpers per 100 shot attempts than last season.
Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight noticed this phenomenon earlier this season, focusing specifically on LeBrons three-point accuracy. He found that the decline in his three-point percentage this season was historic:
“Since the NBA introduced the 3-pointer in 1979-80, 822 players have entered a season with as large a sample of prior 3-point shots as James while also firing off as many attempts during the season being projected; only 10 (1.2 percent) have missed their expected mark by a wider margin than James’s current shortfall.”
The decline in accuracy is baffling and nearly unprecedented. You would expect a smart player who is struggling with their jumpshot to limit their attempts, maximizing efficiency. In LeBron’s case, it’s crippling his offensive game.
Through the first two games against Golden State, LeBron has attempted just 12 shots from outside the paint, making just three. That means jumpshots have made up just 31.6 percent of his field goal attempts, with a 37.5 effective field goal percentage. Both sides of that coin are incredibly important, and significantly detrimental to Cleveland’s offense against one of the smartest and most disciplined defenses in the league.
The Warriors are giving LeBron plenty of space on the perimeter — a two-fold advantage. It either offers him an open jump shot, which he’s been unable to convert often enough to really hurt the Warriors, or forces him to drive into a defense that is already positioned to keep him away from the rim.
If we parse LeBron’s jumpshots by type over the past three seasons, we can see just how out of whack his distribution has been against Golden State.
In the Finals, LeBron has attempted about one-and-a-half fewer jumpers per game than he did during the regular season, which, remember, was already a career-low rate for him. Through these two games he’s had just one catch-and-shoot jumpshot. There are a few different explanations for this. He’s had the ball in his hands a lot more against Golden State, about an extra minute-and-a-half per game, according to NBA.com. Cleveland’s offense as a whole has also struggled to leverage penetration and mismatches in the post into open shots around the perimeter.
LeBron peaked offensively when became a reliable outside shooter in Miami. Defending him still takes tremendous resources on the part of the Warriors but it is an infinitely easier job than when he was able to punish a defense for giving him space.
The Warriors have been able to swallow LeBron by swarming him in the post and retreating on his drives, inviting him into the personal space of a rim protectors like Andrew Bogut or Draymond Green. The natural counter is to take and make jumpers — both to draw perimeter defenders close enough to blow past them, or to pull up and score before running into the back line of the defense. So far, LeBron has been unable and/or unwilling to do that.
It’s a somewhat strange strategic move, encouraging a player to do more of something he’s been particularly bad at this year. But the Cavaliers need every ounce of offensive production LeBron can muster. It’s hard to see how he can do much more against this defense if he can’t start making some outside shots.
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