Jakob Poeltl showed as much improvement as any player this season, making a major jump from his sophomore season for the Utes. The 20-year old center averaged 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.6 blocks per game, while shooting 64.6 percent from the field and 68.9 percent from the charity stripe this season, on his way to being named the Pac-12 Player of the Year. The Austrian native comes from a family of volleyball players and didn’t even plan on playing ball at the college level three years ago. Poeltl now finds himself as a surefire lottery pick and arguably the best center in the 2016 draft class.
Offense
Poeltl has pretty much all the tools you want to see from a top-tier center prospect on the offensive end of the floor. He’s got very good hands and can finish with either one, he’s a good passer and a formidable post scorer. Poeltl’s touch is a bit overrated, but he does a phenomenal job utilizing the glass and even though he isn’t the strongest big, he does a good job of scrapping for position on the low block. He isn’t the most polished low post scorer, his footwork is far from elite, but he does a good of sealing his man off and again does a nice job utilizing the glass to finish.
Poeltl is a good passer, from every level of the post. He isn’t Marc Gasol, in the sense that he doesn’t have great vision, but he’s more skilled than most big’s in this area. His interior passing is very good, he’s good at taking advantage of double teams and passing out of them, something NBA big’s need to be able to do — his passing really shines on the block. Poeltl’s post passing was underutilized quite heavily by Larry Krystkowiak at Utah and is a part of his game that will continue to grow and I believe will be more featured at the NBA level.
My favorite part of Poeltl’s offensive game though, is his ability to put the ball on the deck and score, as well as ability in the pick and roll. He doesn’t have great ball handling skills, but he’s quite adept at driving from the elbow, taking one dribble and scoring. Poeltl’s very good at rolling to the rim in the pick and roll, has very good hands to catch almost any pass thrown his way while also being a solid screener. I think whatever team selects Poeltl would be wise to utilize his ability to score off the dribble and he would fit nicely into a pick and roll heavy offense.
The three things that concern me the most with Poeltl’s offensive game, is his lack of strength, predictability on the low post and shooting ability. Poeltl is listed at 240 lbs, but if you look at his frame he’s very thin and I highly doubt he’s actually that weight. He struggles at times bumping for position on the low block and gets bothered by physicality. Poeltl also has average length for his size (7-1 with a 7-2.75 wingspan) and does struggle finishing over longer defenders at times, I saw both these problems in full effect when he went up against California center Kameron Rooks.
Poeltl’s shooting ability is something he will need to improve immediately, once he steps onto an NBA practice court. I don’t think the concern is that Poeltl can’t shoot, I’m just not sure he’s confident or comfortable enough yet to showcase that part of his game. Last season at Utah, only 15 percent of Poeltl’s shots were jumpers and he shot 37.7 percent on those attempts according to Hoop-Math. The biggest wory for me though is his lack of polish as a post scorer currently. Yes he can finish with both hands, but his attack is fairly predictable showcasing average footwork and no real creativity in terms of post moves. His offensive post game is very meat and potatoes, he heavily relies on just going to a right or left hook shot, with nothing else to set it up. Poeltl rarely utilizes up and under’s, spin moves, shot or ball fakes and is going to need to broaden his horizon to become an effective post scorer at the NBA level.
Defense
Poeltl shines on defense, especially when defending out of the pick and roll. A lot of people have questioned his movement skills and while he might not be on the same level as say someone like Willie Cauley-Stein or Karl Anthony-Towns, he’s still better than most bigs. He’s a great hedger, has quick enough feet, and at times can switch onto opposing guards, defending them in space. Poeltl will assist his future team in pick and roll coverage from day one.
Poeltl also is a guy who can switch onto some guards and mainly forwards at times. Obviously you don’t want him 1-on-1 in space with the likes of Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard or Russell Westbrook, but he is capable of defending along the perimeter in certain situations. He also has no problem defending most big guys in space on drives, you’ll see this in a few of the GIF’s below. Again his movement skills are much better than most give him credit for, he has fairly good lateral quickness; he’s just relying solely on being a freak athlete like some of the youthful bigs in today’s NBA.
Poeltl is a solid post defender as well, even given his lack of strength and elite length. He does struggle when guys get overly-physical with him and get into his body, but he can hold his own and does a great job of going straight up. He’s also an adequate shot blocker, who gets a majority of his blocks coming over from the weakside and helping. Poeltl isn’t a explosive leaper or elite rim protector, but does a good enough job to provide value in that area defensively.
Poeltl’s overall strength is still a concern when it pertains to his defensive potential. He’s got a ton of versatility on the defensive end, but does get overwhelmed and builled at times when defending stronger centers, primarily on the low block. When Poeltl allows guys get into his body, he really struggles, he had a rough time dealing with that when defending Colorado center Josh Scott. He’s also a guy who will get exposed defending in space against elite guards and forwards, if the team that selects him is constantly putting him to switches in defensive rotations too consistently. Lastly, while Poeltl is a solid shot blocker, his average length and lack of explosiveness could limit his potential as rim protector and he could struggle against longer, athletic centers in the NBA.
Lastly I just want to talk about Poeltl’s rebounding ability, one of his best attributes. As mentioned earlier, Poeltl has very good, strong hands which are on full display when he secures rebounds. Poeltl is a great rebounder on both ends, moreso defensively and also does a great job of getting in front of his man and boxing out consistently. Now Poeltl doesn’t really do a great job of rebounding out of his area, but nonetheless his fundamentals are very sound, almost always rebounding with two hands.
Overall Outlook
I’m not sure Poeltl is a franchise-changing center in the way that say Karl-Anthony Towns is , however, I think he’s an All-Star caliber big who should only improve with NBA coaching and more importantly NBA training. Poeltl is so versatile on both ends of the floor, as highlighted in this scouting report and should be able to start day one. He’s the best center in a class that’s pretty deep at the position and should be a double-double machine for the next 10+ years.
Poeltl is also one of the safer selections in this draft, given that I don’t see a very low floor for him. Worst case scenario, Poeltl doesn’t get stronger or quicker, doesn’t improve his shot or polish as a post scorer and he turns into a low end, yet still servicable starting center in the NBA. The ceiling though for Poeltl could be big, as he could mold into a Pau Gasol type big.
Like Gasol, Poeltl isn’t overly athletic or strong, but is immensely skilled. Gasol is also a guy who’s gotten stronger and toughened up over the years, something I could see Poeltl mimicking in terms of his physical development. His passing will be highlighted more at the NBA level and if he can develop a 15-18 foot jump shot, as well as a faceup game, he could be a mirror image of the Spaniard with more defensive prowess.
All in all, I really like Jakob Poeltl and think he’s by far one of the seven or eight best prospects in this class. He’s already shown great growth and development in just two years at Utah, remember this was guy who wasn’t on any major college’s or scout’s radar three years ago and now he’s a projected top ten pick. Poeltl’s development should continue even more rapidly under NBA coaches and trainers. I believe he will get stronger, more polished as a post scorer and become more confident in his shooting stroke. Jakob Poeltl will be a great selection for whatever team selects him on June 23rd and I look forward to watching the Austrian develop into one of the next great centers in this league, for years to come.