On March 18, Sports Illustrated announced that, despite an utterly disappointing first-round loss in the NCAA tournament, Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead would declare for the NBA draft. News later came that he would join the pool of players who maintain their college eligibility by foregoing the opportunity to sign an agent.
However, after placing well in the top ten positionally in nearly all of the NBA Draft Combine’s physical and athletic tests, Whitehead hired agent Andy Miller and decided to leave college and join the 2016 NBA Draft class. At 6-4 and 210 pounds, Whitehead is now betting on his physical gifts to drive him toward an NBA home after a disappointing tournament and a meager efficiency profile that fails to support his flashier counting stats.
He sees himself as a point guard, according to interviews conducted during the Combine. Teams seem to be on the same page in that regard; among others, he has worked out for the Nuggets, Pacers and Knicks — all teams that need lead guard help in some capacity. It remains to be seen if his ball dominance (a 32.6 usage rate this year) can better balance against his great passing instincts and court vision. If they can, a rotation guard in the second round of the draft could be a steal.
OFFENSE
If an NBA team drafts Whitehead in two weeks, it will likely be because of his powerful scoring punch. The sophomore guard upped his scoring from 12.0 to 18.2 points per game this season, getting to the line more and maintaining three-point efficiency (37 percent) even while shooting them more often (6.5 attempts per game) per College Basketball Reference.
Look more closely, however, and you may need an airplane sickness bag. He managed only a 45.8 eFG% despite the increased reliance and efficiency from three, thanks to an unimaginable 38 percent mark on two-point shots. Even as the focal point of a successful offense (104.4 ORtg), Whitehead already has the makeup of a reckless gunner coming out of college.
A strong, balanced player, Whitehead can make room for himself even amid a clogged lane or aggressive help defense. Often, the problems begin when he is forced to make a play after clearing space:
He also tends to rely too heavily on the vision he has built his game around. Unfortunately, that vision derives from time and patience, not instinct and aggressiveness; he prefers to step back and survey the half court before pouncing on his prey:
By giving the defense time to scramble back into position and reset, Whitehead effectively creates panicked scoring opportunities for his team as the shot clock empties into nothingness. As in the above clip, that generally means Whitehead forcing up a heave to “save” the possession. Per Hoop-Math, in “late offense” (less than five seconds left on the shot clock) opportunities, Whitehead’s two-point field goal percentage falls even further, to 31.6 percent.
Alas, it’s hard to ignore the sweetness of the shooting stroke; even with other talented players like Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez around, it begs asking if Whitehead simply had to do that much for Seton Hall to succeed. When he didn’t, they lost; according to College Basketball Reference, in nine Seton Hall losses, Whitehead shot 35 percent overall, only 31 percent from three, and scored less than 18 points in 32 minutes per game.
If he can turn his considerable shot, and space, making gifts into more efficient production with lower usage, he’ll be a valuable offensive piece.
DEFENSE
Separating Whitehead’s defensive potential from his team’s defensive success is difficult. Per KenPom, Seton Hall was 8th in opponent-adjusted defense, allowing only 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Not coincidentally, Whitehead individually posted a solid 97.4 DRtg.
This alone is unconvincing; Whitehead suffers defensive lapse after defensive lapse, his mind almost always appearing focused elsewhere. He wanders around in the half court, watching the ball and leaking into half-hearted help defense. Even when he’s engaged in on-ball defense, his physical prowess rarely translates:
Those kinds of defensive concerns can stack up on each other in a hurry. In the pick and roll, Whitehead often appears eager to make gambles, perhaps confident that his length can make up for any ground he loses. That generally doesn’t happen:
At this juncture, Whitehead is not a Westbrookian beast that can blow up sets even after creating the room for them to thrive through his own misjudgments. He’s far from that kind of player, but he did, shockingly, lead his team in blocks, per Hoop-Math:
Even taking those blocks into consideration, he’s a sizable net negative defensively. As much as he can give you offensively, he probably takes away more on the other end. In an era so focused on motion, passing and spacing, a player like Whitehead cannot survive on defense without significant adjustment — just ask Jordan Crawford.
OUTLOOK
During the NCAA Tournament, New York Times writer Dave Campbell penned a feature highlighting Whitehead’s Real MVP: his mother, Ericka Rambert. Every year, the draft process brings light to the sad truth of the NBA Draft — that for many, it is the pinnacle of their lives, a symbol of having “made it”.
While a mid-second round selection appears likely, there’s no denying that all involved, from the Seton Hall program to Whitehead to his family, would have benefitted from another year in school. That choice, however, isn’t always so clean, and many will never have the blessing of being able to truly make the decision based solely on basketball production.
Perhaps character truly is the most important frontier in player development and draft decision-making. If anyone’s going to prove his basketball detractors wrong, I’d cast my ballot for Isaiah Whitehead.