FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for June 16
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Thursday’s MLB action kicks off at 12:10PM EST with 3 afternoon games and an additional 7 “main” games starting at 7:05PM EST for a full day of FanDuel MLB action!
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 253.7 | $ 8,601 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,300 | 7.25 |
| 5 Day | 249.5 | $ 9,915 | 28% | 72% | $ 3,136 | 7.13 |
| Prev Day | 271.4 | $ 5,100 | 15% | 85% | $ 3,738 | 7.75 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
With only 7 games on the main slate, the variety of pitching options are limited with one clear cut top option on the board. The question is, are there any lower priced options that are worth a pivot for tournament play?
Justin Verlander ($10,000) at Kansas City: The top priced arm on the main slate, Verlander has seen a resurgence so far this season and his price now sits at its peak point on the 2016 MLB season.
Verlander has averaged 49.4 points per start over the last month, a full 11 points higher than any pitcher going throughout the day on Thursday. Verlander has two double digit strikeout games in his last 5 starts, flashing the upside we had seen from the Tigers right hander in previous seasons.
Verlander is a minor road favorite and faces a pesky opponent in the Royals, but his performance makes him the clear cut top option and worth his price on a small slate.
CC Sabathia ($7,200) at Minnesota: Over the last month, no pitcher has had a higher point per dollar value than the Yankees left hander, averaging 5.3x value at his mid-tier price point.
Sabathia is second in points per game over the last month across all the main slate pitchers however sits as the 10th most expensive pitcher, which provides the best value if you are looking to pivot away from Verlander.
Sabathia has fantastic career numbers against the Twins hitters as well, limiting them to a .220 average and only 5 home runs in 118 at bats. The Twins are one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball on the season and with Sabathia a solid favorite (-138), he makes for a great mid level priced play.
Pitching Summary: On a small slate, Verlander is the clear top option in cash games as his performance over the last month has solidified his floor and put him in position to be the clear top scoring option on Thursday. In tournaments, I will look to pivot away from Verlander and roll out Sabathia in multi entry lineups and utilize the $2,800 savings on my lineup construction.
Next: Who are the top hitters on Thursday?
With a small slate and no clear cut “must play,” tonight may be a night best suited for utilizing mini-stacks or one off plays to differentiate your lineup across a variety of lineups when constructing your FanDuel MLB lineup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB versus LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: The Orioles and Red Sox are the highest projected scoring game on the main slate and the Orioles present one of the best stacking options going up against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has allowed 11 runs in his first 16 innings pitched this season and gives the high octane O’s a chance to inflict major damage.
Mark Trumbo ($3,600) and Adam Jones ($3,300) have the platoon advantage and over the last 2 weeks have averaged 13.2 and 14.8 points per game respectively.
Manny Machado ($4,100) is the clear top SS option and has put up 15 points per game over the last week. For more insight into the FanDuel Shortstop landscape check out Matt Rogers latest FanDuel Economics Position Analysis.
Tigers RHB versus LHP Danny Duffy: The Tigers have a loaded right handed hitting lineup and although they have struggled against LHP this season, the pedigree of the hitters and the reasonable price points make for a great complimentary stack when building behind Justin Verlander.
Miguel Cabrera ($3,800) has three straight double digit scoring outings including a massive 30 point outing on Monday and with his price point below $4k he makes for one of the best point/dollar first base plays on the slate.
Justin Upton ($2,900) has seen his price steadily increase but still sits below $3k and is averaging just under 14 points per game over the last two weeks as he appears to be turning it on after a slow start.
Pitching Summary: The Orioles/Red Sox game is the top spot for finding offense but it will be tricky to manage the high priced Red Sox bats if you are also looking to pay up for Verlander. My preferred option is to lock in Verlander and utilize the more cost efficient Orioles and Tigers to build my lineup which have similar upside across a variety of elite players.
Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup
Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander ($10,000)
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Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!