I was never happy to get to work. But I was that day, walking around my New York office with the biggest grin my editor had ever seen. The Boston Red Sox had just gone up 3-0 in the 2004 World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. My favorite team was on the cusp of winning its first championship since 1918.
He had doubts, though. After all, the Red Sox had just completed an historic comeback from an 3-0 deficit against the dreaded New York Yankees in the previous series. So my boss told me not to count my chickens just yet.
I just laughed and told him, “that’s not how this works.”
He wasn’t much of a baseball guy. He didn’t truly understand how monumental it had been to beat the Yankees. So when it came to the possibility of another comeback, to him, this was just like one of those years that the media decides to turn into The Summer of Shark Attacks. It just happened once. Despite overwhelming odds — why not again?
That this is where the NBA Finals currently stands.
After an otherworldly, record-setting performance by Kyrie Irving and LeBron James in Game 5, anything seems possible. The Cleveland Cavaliers have the momentum, whatever that means, and now head home to Ohio with a chance to force a Game 7. And once you get to a Game 7? It’s a coin flip, right?
It may have seemed impossible to beat the Golden State Warriors three times in a row when the Cavs were down 1-3 in the series. But it sure feels a lot more likely now. Plus, don’t you remember, the Warriors just proved that coming back from 1-3 is achievable by doing it to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Really, there are reasons to believe this.
Steph Curry can’t dribble by people to get to the rim and is making inexplicable turnovers on the reg. Draymond Green is one more flagrant foul from getting suspended again. And Andrew Bogut suffered a bad knee injury in Game 5 that will keep him out for the rest of the Finals.
So? Maybe. Why not?
On the other hand, that’s not how this works.
The Warriors, while seeming more beatable than they have in at least 18 months, haven’t lost three straight games all year. Their defense in Game 5 was awful, and losing Bogut is substantial. But as long as they aren’t missing both the Big Aussie and Draymond again in the same game, things should be OK.
In fact, coach Steve Kerr may even start Game 6 using his so-called Death Lineup (Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green). And if he doesn’t put it out there at the jump, this five-man unit of destruction will see more time than normal. Festus Ezeli and Mo Speights should be on a short leash as they try to fill in for Bogut.
The Game 5 loss at home required a suspension to Green, a horror outing by Barnes (shooting 2-of-14), an injury to Bogut, and two Cavs becoming the first teammates to both score 40 points in a Finals game.
As epic as that was, it still seems like an outlier. And moreover, it’s hard to believe the NBA Finals will be the time when Golden States loses three in a row. Until the Western Conference finals, they hadn’t even lost back-to-back games all year.
Can the Cavs win this title it in theory? Sure.
Is it anything approaching likely? That’s a hard case to make.
At least not with Kevin Love continuing to be a liability. Not when J.R. Smith continues to miss two-thirds — or more — of his shots in almost every Finals game. Not when LeBron and Kyrie have to be this good to overcome for the team’s many shortcomings.
It’s a shame, really.
LeBron had to take on the Warriors almost single-handedly last time around. He put together incredible feats in defeat, logging an ungodly Finals average of 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game in 2015. But even James admitted that he didn’t like the way he was playing, taking too many shots and only hitting 39.8 percent of them. Without his main sidekicks, though, it was the only shot his team had.
But now that they’re back, they still aren’t right. This doesn’t look like the 3-point-launching team that started the playoffs 8-0.
The Cavs of the Finals have played better with Love off the floor. Iman Shumpert is a net negative. Smith is once again giving them nothing. The Timofey Mozgov boost from last year is now a bench fixture.
While Kyrie has been unbelievable the past two outings, it still goes to show that the Cavs need heroism from LeBron in order to stand a chance. That was always the case to some degree. It just didn’t seem like it would be so pronounced — again, for the second year running.
Winning four of seven was always going to be a challenge.
Winning three in a row? Good luck with that.
I would love to be wrong and see yet another Game 7. Better still would be the Cavs completing an unprecedented comeback and seeing LeBron bring a title to The Land.
It’s just that, that’s not how this works.
Smith’s struggle in The Finals
The Cavaliers need something out of J.R. Smith, who is now officially in the running for worst NBA Finals performer I have ever seen.
To his credit, he had an excellent Game 3, scoring 20 points on 13 shots and even managing three steals. And his defense, often picking up Steph Curry — while carrying out Tyronn Lue’s mandate to never help off the MVP — has been better than expected in general.
But the dude has to make some shots.
Thus far, J.R. Smith has shot 33.3 percent or lower in 8 of the 11 Finals games he has ever played.
Even recognizing that he mostly takes 3s, this is horrible.
He shot 31.2 percent in the 2015 Finals. Due to his good Game 3 this year, his accuracy overall is higher this year (39.0%). But that is still not great. And if you take away his one big night, he is shooting 9-of-28 (32.1%).
Another stunning stat: In Games 1 and 2, Smith scored eight points combined in 69 minutes.
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We’re watching a virtual replay of last year with one positive outlier game.
That’s not going to cut it.
If the Cavs want to have any shot at winning this title, the guy they call Swish needs to start living up to that name.
Words With Friends
This week’s five must-read articles about the NBA. Excerpts here — click through to read the full piece.
1. How LeBron James, Dan Gilbert and the Republican National Convention learned to coexist
by Ramona Shelburne, ESPN
The Big Bang between Gilbert and LeBron came in 2010, when LeBron announced he was leaving Cleveland to play for the Heat and Gilbert responded with that infamous scorched-earth, Comic Sans-fonted letter in which he cursed LeBron and turned himself into an irascible caricature. “Everyone in Ohio thought it was great. Everyone in our country thought it was insane,” says Gilbert, 54. “That’s one of those things you write that you shouldn’t hit the send button until you read it [again] the next morning.”
2. The Architect: Meet the man who built the Warriors with a golden touch
by Chris Ballard, Sports Illustrated
When Arn Tellem took the call from Jim Harrick in the spring of 1997, he was intrigued. At the time, Tellem was one of the top NBA agents. Harrick, the longtime UCLA coach, had sent Reggie Miller his way a few years earlier. Now, he had another recommendation. “Someone terrific for you,” according to Harrick. Tellem ran through the Bruins’ roster in his head. Two years removed from a national title, the team was loaded: Toby Bailey, Charles O’Bannon, Jelani McCoy. He became excited. “Okay, I’m listening,” he told Harrick. “His name is Bob Myers,” said Harrick. Tellem was confused. Bob Myers? “Who,” he asked, “is that?”
3. In multibillion-dollar business of NBA, sleep is the biggest debt
by Ken Berger, CBS Sports
Eighty-two regular-season games. Back-to-backs. Four games in five nights. Crisscrossing multiple time zones. NBA players are paid millions of dollars to push the limits of human performance, only to neglect the simplest and most effective tool. Until now. “Sleep is the most important thing when it comes to recovery,” James said.
4. The Warriors are more than a bunch of jump-shooters
by Zach Lowe, ESPN
The Cavaliers’ intentions on these plays are good. They are trying hard! But disorganized effort can lead to the same bad results as organized laziness. When the errors get more dire and basic, as they did in the second half of Game 4, the Warriors punish you with shots that count for an extra point.
5. ESPN’s Sage Steele Gets Honest About the Lack of Support Among Women
by Rachaell Davis, Essence
When we are in this male-dominated industry and we know it and there’s two of us in this locker rom of probably 18 or 20 press total….why aren’t we looking out for each other? I mean, that wasn’t the whole of it, I did have some really great experiences with other women when I worked in Tampa but, just in general. And then even when I got to ESPN, again, I was so disappointed in the way women treated other women and the lack of support. There just aren’t that many jobs available at these networks and we’re all competitive but, we’re all under contract. So, there’s room for all of us or they wouldn’t have signed us! It’s great to be competitive, but when you are such a minority as with women in the industry and in any industry, why aren’t you looking out for each other? … We talk about the glass ceiling and all of that and we are overlooking the most basic thing, which is each other.