2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Malcolm Brogdon

Over the past three seasons, Tony Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers won a combined 89 games, achieving a level of success the school hadn’t seen since the early 80s. While the Hoos have seen several players make the leap to the NBA over the past couple years, perhaps no player has been more integral to their continued success than Malcolm Brogdon.

A 3-time First Team All-ACC selection, 2-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year and 2016 ACC Player of the Year, Brogdon’s collegiate resume stacks up next to anyone in the 2016 NBA Draft. The nation’s top defender, according to the National Association of Basketball Coaches, Brogdon also doubled as leading scorer for one of the top teams in the country, accounting for over 25 percent of Virginia’s points.

Yet, despite a gaudy resume and a giant stack of character references, Brogdon is not projected to hear his name called until the second round. For a player who established himself as one of the best players in college basketball by being above-average at everything, Brogdon will need to prove to NBA teams that he can be great at a couple things in order to stick on somebody’s roster.

Offense

Despite projecting as a shooting guard at the next level, Brogdon spent a decent amount of time initiating the offense in Virginia’s ‘Mover-Blocker’ motion scheme. Coach Bennett put the ball in Brogdon’s hands a lot and was often rewarded. While Brogdon’s athleticism somewhat limits his playmaking ability as a lead guard, he is a willing passer who uses his strength and ball-handling ability to prod defenses in search of a weakness. He isn’t the most inventive maestro, but he anticipates well and executes his one read with efficiency.

Perhaps the biggest testament to his ability to man the controls is his meager 8.3 percent turnover rate, sixth-lowest in the nation among players with as high a usage rate as Brogdon. While he is unlikely to be called upon as a playmaker at the next level, Brogdon’s ability to use possessions so efficiently increases his chances exponentially of being able to stick as a role player.

The reason Brogdon has to be talked about in terms of what he can provide as a role player rather than anything more is simply insufficient athleticism, which will likely put a severe limit on what kind of ceiling Brogdon is capable of having at the next level. What was an acceptable in college is liable to get him killed in the NBA, and that pretty much rules out most of what he does with the ball in his hands inside the 3-point line.

Fortunately, there’s a silver lining in the form of Brogdon’s shooting. Brogdon shot .391 on 3-pointers, with an .897 free throw clip to endorse it. The keys that will determine Brogdon’s ability to impact the game on offense are going to be range — which is always a bit of a question mark — and Brogdon’s ability to get his slightly low release off against NBA defenders. Per Synergy, Brogdon ranked in the 94th percentile in eFG% on uncontested catch-and-shoot jumpers, but he plummeted to the 59th percentile when guarded. In order to be effective on offense, Brogdon is going to need to be a threat from beyond the arc, something that his ability to get clean looks off against longer defenders is likely going to make or break.

If he is able to translate his marksmanship to the next level, Brogdon also brings a few other scoring elements to the table.

A hard cutter, he is often able to use his strength to bully opposing guards on the interior so long as the help defense doesn’t foil his efforts. He also has a fairly decent handle, though his lack of quickness forces him to use it mostly to ward off defenders or try to beat them laterally rather than on straight-line drives. In all, he brings enough to the table that teams can utilize him in a number of ways to pick up the odd points here and there. He won’t necessarily have to be a specialist; he just needs to be hitting shots to justify putting him out there in the first place.

Defense

As mentioned above, Brogdon ranked as one of the best defenders in Division I college basketball last year. A deeper dive suggests that his conference and national honors were both well deserved. Among players with a minimum of 30 possessions, Brogdon ranked in the 94th percentile in pick-and-roll ball-handler defense and the 90th percentile in isolation defense, per Synergy.

The key to Brogdon’s success is his combination of length and strength. Standing at over 6-5 with a wingspan of 6-10.5, Brogdon can be difficult to escape. Even if he bites on a pump fake (which he too often does), his reaction speed and length allow him to recover in time to contest the actual shot. But perhaps his most effective means of defense is simply being solidly built. Already in the realm of 225 lbs., Brogdon is a sturdy presence on the perimeter, making it difficult for opposing guards to penetrate against him and allowing him to hold his own on the block against bigger players.

Despite showing good instincts and a strong understanding of positioning, Brogdon doesn’t pick up as many steals as one may like for a defender of his caliber — and he can certainly get caught napping at times away from the ball — but his on-ball defense is so stout that he should have at least one NBA-level skill right out of the gate.

Outlook

Malcolm Brogdon is a 23-year-old shooting guard who projects as a 3-and-D prospect with good intangibles. He has decent size for his position and was a very effective scorer in college, but he is a below-average NBA athlete, which will likely limit the role he is able to play on offense. Ideally, he will be able to contribute predominantly as a 3-point shooter, though questions linger about his ability to get clean looks against NBA defenders. Over the past two years, Brogdon established himself as one of the premier defenders in college basketball. A hard worker with good instincts, plenty of strength and excellent wingspan, he should be able to leave his mark on the defensive end in the NBA as well.

If he can find a way to contribute on offense, Brogdon should enjoy a nice career as a reliable, defensive-minded role player.