2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Furkan Korkmaz
When we last profiled Furkan Korkmaz, the 6-7 perimeter prodigy had just wrapped up an impressive summer of international play with Turkey’s U19 and U18 teams. Projected as a lottery pick, Korkmaz more than held his own for both squads, averaging 13.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game at the U19 World Championships, and then helping to carry Turkey to a silver medal at the U18 European Championships, averaging 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.7 steals per game. With his advanced offensive IQ and electric three-point shooting, Korkmaz was setting up for a very strong season next to fellow star prospects Cedi Osman and Dario Saric at Anadolu Efes.
Korkmaz didn’t see a big increase in his role with Efes in 2015-16, however, and he produced very similarly to his previous season’s numbers:
2014-2015: 12.1 minutes, 4.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, 44/42/78 shooting splits
2015-2016: 11.6 minutes, 4.3 points, 1.3 rebounds, 46/40/62 shooting splits
Korkmaz was primarily used as an off-ball floor spacer in his limited minutes in Euroleague and the Turkish Super League, and he looks the part of a very strong three-point ace in the NBA. He’s probably the only prospect among this year’s first round-worthy international prospects that played for a successful team, as Efes finished 2nd in the Turkish League and came within a game of making the Euroleague eight-team Playoff.
After some question surrounding whether he’d stay committed to the 2016 Draft, Korkmaz kept his name in, and flew to the U.S. this week to work out with a few NBA teams. Let’s look at how Korkmaz’s game could fit at the next level, and where he needs to continue to improve.
Physical Tools
Korkmaz doesn’t have the most attractive physical profile, which is a reason for concern. He has good height and length for a shooting guard, standing 6-7, but at just 170 pounds, there’s significant reason to question if his frame is too small for the NBA at this point. Of course, he’s just 18-years old, so his body is nowhere close to fully filling out, but this alone will keep him away from significant minutes for a little while. As a primarily offense-focused floor spacer, Korkmaz likely will require less strength to succeed than other wings (Like Timothe Luwawu or Malik Beasley) would. However, he is simply not ready to defend NBA wings at this point.
Korkmaz doesn’t have elite athleticism, but he’s deceptively quick, and gets a good first step off the dribble and on cuts. He also has excellent body control, allowing him to become a solid rim finisher despite lacking the upper body strength to finish conventionally through contact. He also is able to use these two attributes on the defensive end, where he has shown potential to be disruptive on the perimeter thanks to his crafty hands and ability to recover. While strength is an issue, he likely won’t stay this small as he matures, and his other physical tools should allow him to be a strong overall athlete once he fully develops.
Offense
Korkmaz’s money will be made because of his three-point shot. Korkmaz is an absolute assassin from outside, and outside of the U18 European Championships (22.1 percent), he’s consistently hovered around 40 percent from outside, regardless of competition.
Korkmaz’s release is unconventional, but it works very well for him, as his lanky reach allows him to shoot over taller defenders thanks to the elbow extension he gets on the release. He also gathers himself very well on the catch, and while the quickness of his shooting stroke may need to improve, he’s very consistent in his form, whether it’s on the catch or off the bounce.
It’s one thing to have a good shooting stroke, and it’s another to master all of the tricks that go into being an elite three-point shooter. Korkmaz is well on his way there, as he’s one of the best players in recent years at moving off the ball and creating space for himself and others on the perimeter.
Korkmaz also attacks close-outs well, an additional weapon in the NBA spot-up shooter’s arsenal. He’s quick and has a solid handle, and has enough hops to be able to finish over contesting defenders. Korkmaz has a brilliant overall arsenal for an elite three-point shooter, and these are all reasons why Korkmaz should fair better than other elite European shooters, such as Sergey Karasev.
Korkmaz is rarely tasked with dictating the offense on the ball at Efes, as evidenced by his relatively low 17.4 percent usage rate. However, he has experience with that role for the Turkish junior national teams, which has led many to believe this is an area he can potentially contribute with in the NBA. Korkmaz does well creating his own shot out of the pick-and-roll, with a strong first step, confidence in his pull-up jumper and a strong floater game that compensates for his lack of finishing ability. However, his passing ability is better suited for playing on the wing. Korkmaz is a better passer on the perimeter, where he can more clearly see the action unfold around him, rather than kicking out once in the middle of the defense. He also has a fairly loose handle, and doesn’t protect the ball well in the paint. These factors lead to his disappointing assist-to-turnover rate (1.4 in 15-16), and will probably limit the amount that he is able to rely on this aspect of his game in the NBA.
It’s worth mentioning that Korkmaz was very inconsistent on free throws this year, hitting just 61.5 percent for the 15-16 season. That’s a concerning and mysterious percentage for a guy who is usually fine from the line, and hit 77.6 percent in 14-15. This came on 26 attempts, and Korkmaz doesn’t draw a ton of fouls as a guy who comes closest to contact by kicking his leg out on a three-point attempt. This is merely an interesting small-sample number, and it’s worth monitoring.
Defense
Korkmaz has 3-and-D potential, but the defensive side will obviously be an issue until his strength improves. At this point, Korkmaz isn’t a good rebounder if there’s traffic around, he gets bullied by bigger wings, and he gets hung up on screens very easily. It’s very difficult to assess Korkmaz’s technical abilities in these aspects of the game, simply because we won’t know if he can be successful until he is strong enough to not get overwhelmed physically.
Where Korkmaz does have defensive potential is off the ball, where his quickness and length allow him to force turnovers at a high rate. Korkmaz has very active hands, and excelled at the top of Turkey’s 1-2-2 zone, where he plays like a strong safety, jumping passes and applying pressure to the primary ball-handler. He doesn’t always give consistent effort here, but he should at least be able to be occasionally disruptive off the ball, through forcing steals or making the right rotations.
On the ball, Korkmaz doesn’t have the best lateral quickness, and can get beat off the dribble by quicker guards. However, he does do an excellent job of recovering thanks to his straight-line quickness, so he is still able to make plays on the ball even if he gets beat. In theory, Korkmaz’s overall defensive ability will likely be as a player who makes smart and quick rotations off the ball, forces a decently high rate of steals, and can be at least serviceable on the ball, even though he’s probably best guarding twos long term.
Overall Outlook
Korkmaz is an intriguing prospect thanks to how well developed his spot-up game is, and his overall projection as a quality offensive role player. However, he needs significant development physically, and could struggle mightily for a long time on the defensive end. There are rumors that Korkmaz will be heading back to Efes regardless of his draft position, and that could be the best thing for his development, allowing him to take over a much larger role within Efes’s offense without Dario Saric. More importantly, it will allow him to continue development without getting exposed defensively, something that has doomed other young late-bloomers like Karasev in the NBA. Drafting Korkmaz is an investment, but it’s one that should reasonably pay off for a team who needs an elite shooter down the road.