50 States of Gray: Looking at the General Election

Welcome back to 50 States of Gray. Now the the primaries have shaken out and it seems we have a pair of presumptive nominees, let’s look at what lies ahead.

PHOENIX, AZ – JUNE 18: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to a crowd of supporters during a campaign rally on June 18, 2016 in Phoenix, Arizona. Trump returned to Arizona for the fourth time since starting his presidential campaign a year ago. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

Trump continues to stumble, but will he ever fall?

The presumptive Republican nominee continues to put his foot in his mouth during a time when he’s supposed to be coalescing the rest of the GOP. He should be garnering less criticism for what he says and more about how Presidential he looks. The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio is about a month out, and this marks a critical time in the general election process. It marks time to ramp up your best fundraising efforts, put together a coalition in key swing states, show (a positive) contrast between yourself and your opponent on the issues such as trade and immigration, and last, but certainly not least, unifying the party But with Trump you can almost certainly expect the unexpected.

The controversial GOP nominee is having trouble just getting the party establishment’s key figures to endorse him after his continued combative style. The party’s elite are starting to realize if you endorse Trump, you own not just his policies, but everything he says. It started most recently with his damning comments about the judge in his Trump University case. Trump suggested that the California District Court Judge Curiel can’t without bias preside over his case because he is of “Mexican heritage.” This immediately caused outrage amongst the GOP. Speaker Paul Ryan has called Trump’s profiling the very definition of a “racist comment” and condemned the nominee’s remarks. Last week, Ryan addressed other Republicans’ growing concerns saying he that will endorse Trump, but understands if someone who believes endorsing the presumptive nominee will go against their conscious can’t do so. Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who in late February said that the party would “drop him [Trump] like a hot rock” if he became the nominee, has since changed his tune and will now endorse Trump. But here’s the problem: Trump himself may force the Senate Majority Leader’s hand with his continued racial remarks, and it may now be in the best interest of Senator Mitch McConnell to go back to his earlier sentiments and “drop him like a hot rock” just to keep Senate majority.

Down ballot races have even began to enlist the help of former President George W. Bush in their tight Senate races as opposed to Trump.

Even one of Trump’s earliest supporters in Congress, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, says although he thinks he will make a good President, he doesn’t endorse what he says. “It is not my job to answer for Donald Trump,” he says. “I am not even a surrogate. I am just an endorser.”

What the polls say…

The latest national poll done by the CBS News has Donald Trump losing to presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton by six points: 43% to 37%. That’s the same margin she held over Donald Trump over a month ago before she ever claimed the Democratic nomination. That’s the last thing the Trump Campaign and RNC want to hear after having ample time to close the gap and gain some momentum on Clinton. Donald Trump’s last Republican adversary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, bowed out of the presidential race on May 4th, giving him a little over a month to iron out a real general election apparatus to defeat Hillary, but he hasn’t been able to get out of his own way and extend an olive branch for new supporters. Trump has even been outmatched in fundraising by Clinton, and hasn’t shown much of an organizing principle to help extend to more voters.

It doesn’t help that Trump feels the need to double down on his Muslim ban after the tragic domestic terrorist attack in Orlando. It has even caused some people to ask Trump if he would have banned Muslims such as the recently deceased American icon Muhammad Ali and new London Mayor Sadiq Khan. (Trump has said the mayor would be an exception to the rule.)

WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 10: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton poses for photos during a visit to Uprising Muffin Company June 10, 2016 in Washington, DC. Clinton had a meeting with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) today after Warren has officially endorsed her to be the next president of the United States. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Democrats Stand United

In a time when Trump was hoping to unify his party, he has to sit by and watch the Democratic Party putting together its general election team. After Clinton wrapped up the nomination and made history, she got key endorsements from The President, The Vice President, and Progressive star (and Vice Presidential hopeful) Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (whom Trump dubbed “Pocahontas” in ublic comments and Twitter spats). Even First lady Michelle Obama joined the Trump fight during her commencement speech in New York at City College on June 3rd saying, “We don’t give into our fears. We don’t build up walls to keep people out.” Seemingly in direct response to Trumps call to build a wall at the Mexican border.

Not only is Hillary getting help from key establishment figures, she’s also getting advice from Hollywood stars on how to take on a celebrity like Trump. However, thus far she’s stuck to using his own words against him and calling him unstable, a loose cannon, and someone who is temperamentally unfit to be commander in chief.

The GOP is trying hard to avoid having a candidate who is so off the cuff and spontaneous that he makes a costly mistake. Some point to Mitt Romney and his 47% comment as the underlying mistake that cost him the 2012 Election. And although this has been a campaign cycle unlike anything strategist have seen before, a candidate that has earned the nickname “Teflon Trump” may have to continue to rewrite the political playbook and general election playbook to win this one. If he keeps this up, the GOP may live to regret it.