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Are top 10 NBA draft picks still being used on big men?

By Chris Reichert

Mar 27, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Justise Winslow (12) shoots against Utah Utes forward Jakob Poeltl (42) during the first half in the semifinals of the south regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 27, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Justise Winslow (12) shoots against Utah Utes forward Jakob Poeltl (42) during the first half in the semifinals of the south regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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The landscape, schemes and strategies are fluid in the NBA. Teams used to sell their souls for a traditional big man who could dominate the low block, protect the rim and snag rebounds by the bundle. Now teams are valuing versatility more than ever and prodigies like Karl Anthony-Towns are the cash cow general managers seek.

Look no further than last night’s NBA Finals extravaganza for the importance of a mobile big, who can move laterally when called upon. Kevin Love — who has been much maligned for his lack of defense — gets switched onto the unanimous MVP Stephen Curry and stifles him into a near impossible 3-point heave. If that’s Timofey Mozgov or any other traditional big, Steph shakes ’em and likely drops a dagger in the hearts of a Cavaliers team on the brink of their first NBA title.

Last week, Kevin O’Connor wrote a stellar piece for SB Nation on the diminishing value of traditional big men, so I thought to look and see how that has played out in the top-10 of the NBA draft over the past 30 years.

Data compiled by @Chris_Reichert via DraftExpress
Data compiled by @Chris_Reichert via DraftExpress /

As you can see the trend is certainly going for smaller options in the top-10, however the drop isn’t as noticeable as one might expect. This graph also shows all players and not simply traditional big men, so as stated earlier players like Karl Anthony-Towns are much more versatile than those traditional back the basket centers — though he has that skill as well, go figure.

Just last season there were four 7-footers taken in the top-10 (and Jahlil Okafor is 6-11) so elite big men are certainly still a coveted asset by NBA franchises, but the expectations of their skill set has certainly changed over the last 30 years.

Data compiled by @Chris_Reichert via Basketball-Reference
Data compiled by @Chris_Reichert via Basketball-Reference /

The chart above shows the logic behind needing more versatile big men. Teams are chucking up 3-pointers like never before, meaning they will try to utilize the pick-and-roll to create mismatches for their electric guards to get these attempts off. Teams will more versatile bigs — a la Tristan Thompson in the NBA Finals — can switch these PnRs without major concern over giving up a huge advantage.

Come Thursday during the NBA draft it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays out. The Upside & Motor big board has three “big men” in the top-10 and two of the three (Simmons and Bender) are the versatile type with Jakob Poeltl being a more traditional big man.

Certainly players the caliber of a Dwight Howard and/or DeMarcus Cousins are still sought after in today’s NBA, and perhaps more importantly players their size are still extremely valuable, however height alone isn’t the key to NBA supremacy as it once was.

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