Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield took the college basketball world by storm this season as he delivered weekly shooting highlights and ultimately propelled his team to a Final Four birth.
Hield’s next challenge, though, will be proving to NBA teams that he can be more than a scorer as he looks to solidify his place on a roster at the next level.
Offense
The 22-year old’s most NBA-ready skill is his scoring and more specifically, his ability to fill up the score sheet from beyond the three-point arc. Hield attempted 894 three-pointers in four seasons in Norman and connected on 39.0 percent of them, but during his senior year, he knocked down a ridiculous 45.7 percent of his 322 attempts. The NBA three-point line reportedly hasn’t been a problem for him during workouts with some teams even having him show off his ability to knock it down from “Steph Curry range.”
Hield was the best catch-and-shoot three-point marksman in college basketball last season, averaging 1.46 points per possession on halfcourt catch-and-shoots, but he is also capable of hitting off the dribble, especially when moving towards his left hand.
What’s often understated is Hield’s impressive feel for the game on the offensive end. He is excellent at reading defenders after driving and dishing or on offensive rebounds, which helps him find open space on the floor to get his shot away cleanly:
While the majority of his offense will come from behind the three-point line, Hield is also capable of attacking the basket in a straight line off the dribble. Because he is such a good outside shooter, opponents must close out hard and quick to the perimeter which allows Hield to create off the bounce. Just over a quarter of his shots in halfcourt situations came at the rim, according to hoop-math, and he finished an impressive 57.9 percent of those attempts. He’s improved as a creative finisher at the rim, capable of using the basket to avoid rim protectors and able to adjust the ball mid-air to find a better shooting angle.
Although Hield is a strong attacker in a straight line, he struggles to create offense off the dribble in one-on-one situations beyond creating space to pull up for a jumper. His first step isn’t quick enough to blow by defenders and his dribble moves are far from advanced. His struggles were on display in the Sooners’ Final Four loss to Villanova when the Wildcats’ Josh Hart shut him down on the perimeter:
Hield will benefit immensely from playing in an NBA offense. All too often, Oklahoma’s offensive movement was stagnant off the ball as teammates simply waited for the ballhandler to make a play off the bounce. At the next level, Hield should be able to run through more off-ball screens (a skill he needs to improve) and perhaps even work occasionally in the pick-and-roll to help him attack downhill.
Defense
Defensively, Hield is still a work in progress even at 22-years old, but he is far from the James Harden-level travesty that he’s occasionally been painted as in the lead up to the draft.
Hield’s physical tools are solid. He has a wingspan six inches longer than J.J. Redick, one of the players he’s most frequently compared to, despite measuring just 6-5 in shoes. Although he likely won’t be more than a one position defender at the next level, his length should allow him to develop into a competent challenge even against larger two guards.
On the floor, Hield is a noticeable communicator. Oklahoma’s defense regularly involved switching along the perimeter and he was often the player calling out the switches to ensure that players made it to where they needed to be. Of course, that means Hield didn’t spend a ton of time running through screens with the Sooners, so he’ll likely need to improve on that skill in the NBA.
In addition to switching, he played well within Oklahoma’s scheme, which finished with a top 20 ranking (based on adjusted defensive efficiency) in each of the last two seasons. Hield can often be seen shading into the paint to help cut off penetration, but he does struggle to recover out to the three-point line, often over pursuing and allowing his man to attack the paint off the dribble.
Hield is still working on committing to play defense on every possession and he does occasionally fail to get down in a stance which results in some awfully awkward moments, but he should be able to commit more energy to the defensive end in the NBA where he won’t be asked to shoulder such a significant scoring load.
Outlook
Only six college seniors have been drafted in the top 10 since 2006 when the NBA created the age requirement that ushered in the one-and-done era. It’s a small sample of prospects to draw definitive conclusions from, but it’s safe to say the results have been mixed. For example, Portland’s C.J. McCollum has grown into the second best player on a Western Conference playoff team while Jimmer Fredette is still struggling to find his place in the league.
Hield has at least one elite skill that should translate well at the next level. Prior statistical research has shown a strong linkage between college three-point percentage and NBA three-point percentage and if workout rumors are any guide, Hield is having no struggles with the NBA three-point line. Despite that, Hield has been called a “floor” prospect because of his question marks, meaning that while he has a relatively high floor there is uncertainty about just how good he can actually be given what he is now and how many years he realistically has remaining as a basketball player.
However, prospect evaluation does not always have to be a search for the home run. Draft picks have value even when they only turn into effective rotation players, so when evaluating prospects, it’s important to consider the expected value of each selection. While some players may have lower ceilings than others, the likelihood that they reach their ceiling may simply be much higher. Does Hield have the upside of a player like Marquese Chriss? Of course not. But there is a much lower chance that Hield flames out and sometimes it’s good enough to swing for contact.
Hield experienced immense improvement during his college career. He rose from three-star recruit to National Player of the Year over the course of four seasons and raised his three-point percentage over 20 percent from his freshman to senior campaign. By all accounts, his work ethic is incredible. Given his history and reported personality, it’s tough not to assume that he’ll at least fulfill the bottom end of his potential as a quality player in the NBA. It may only end up being an RBI single, but sometimes that’s all you need.