How Marcell Ozuna is Quickly Becoming Nelson Cruz
Marcell Ozuna has come back from a down year to posting solid numbers across the board. His path to success mirrors Nelson Cruz and here is why.
Remember when Marcell Ozuna was sent to the minor leagues last season? You may remember it because he was slashing .249/.301/.337 with a 75 wRC+ and a .088 ISO. What’s hilarious is that his BABIP was still above average at .317. But we aren’t here to drag Ozuna through the time period I like to call B.B.B. (before Barry Bonds) No, we are not here to talk about the past. We have now entered the age of Ozuna, A.B.B. (after Bonds) where Marcell has quickly become Bonds’ favorite son.
A PLAYER COMPARISON
If you compare the careers between what Nelson Cruz has done of his 12-year stint and Ozuna, you get a pretty clear picture of what they’ve done. But it’s not perfect, as the Nelson Cruz we know now isn’t the man he was back with the Rangers. Similar, but the path to success was much different.
Batted Ball Type
| LD% | GB% | FB% | |
| Player A | 19.5% | 47.1% | 33.4% |
| Player B | 17.5% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
Pretty similar but not the absolute best comparison. Nelson Cruz is Player B and if we strip away who Cruz was, you can see a much different Batted Ball Type over the last three seasons: 18.7% LD, 44.1% GB, and 37.2% FB%. Where Ozuna and Cruz really become twins is beyond the batted ball types.
Batted Ball Distribution
| Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | |
| Player A | 38.9% | 35.4% | 25.7% |
| Player B | 38.6% | 35.8% | 25.6% |
It’s pretty incredible to see such a Batted Ball Distribution lineup so well. They both are using their power on the pull side to generate success but still using all parts of the field to maintain a high BABIP and to remove any massive shift potential that someone like Albert Pujols sees regularly.
Batted Ball Quality
| Soft% | Med% | Hard% | |
| Player A | 16% | 48% | 36% |
| Player B | 16.4% | 48.3% | 35.3% |
Not only is Marcell Ozuna posting comparative metrics across the board, he is among the leaders in Hard Hit% this season at 38.5%, a number he reached in his 2014 campaign. That’s a number that is shades better than what Giancarlo Stanton is doing so far this season and better than Nelson Cruz.
BEYOND THE BATTED BALL
What is great about Ozuna is that he is becoming more patient at the plate in his fourth season in the major leagues. He is now only striking out 20.3% of the time — which is down from his 26.8% he posted in 2014 — and his walks have risen a full percentage point to 7.7%. This is supported by his SwStr% falling to 11.7%, a far-cry from his 13.7% posted in 2014.
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However, I don’t believe his .322 average is sustainable. His .363 BABIP is one of the best in the league — 13th overall among qualifiers — and it is bound to come down over the course of the season unless his line drive rate rises. Considering he has an xBABIP of .300, there is not enough speed in Ozuna’s game to consider anything but we will see regression in that department.
But back to the comparison between Marcell Ozuna and Cruz. Cruz has posted a HR/FB rate above 20% the past 4 seasons because the power potential between the two just aren’t comparable. Even if on average Ozuna smacks enough Hard Hit% to match Cruz, Cruz’s balls he hits hard are just….well, much harder hit. If you look at the average exit velocity this season, Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton top the list. Ozuna is still respectable, but not elite in this category, meaning he probably is a guy with 30 home run power rather than 40 home run power.
SUCCESS WITH THE GROUNDBALL
I said as a general rule that Ozuna’s batting average would fall but what is very interesting is that he actually is posting a below average line drive rate batting average, and an above average ground ball batting average. Because we know that the line drive rate average is .685, his .667 mark seems a bit low. So why is his ground ball batting average producing at .420 when we know it should be around .239?
Because Marcell Ozuna hits ground balls harder than Rougned Odor‘s fist against Bautista’s jaw. His exit velocity on ground balls is 9th best in baseball among players with at least 100 batted ball events. You’ll also see Stanton and Christian Yelich‘s name at the top of this list; Which is the reason why Yelich has had so much success as a groundball hitter.
His ability to hit groundballs to the opposite field is buoying that average and BABIP. In fact, it’s probably why Ozuna doesn’t see the shift as often and when he does, he has success: .412 average in shift situations.
THAT’S A WRAP
Next: Reds Cody Reed: Deep Waiver Add
I was suppose to post this article Monday and boy would I have looked awesome after Marcell Ozuna’s two-home run game, wouldn’t I? Oh well. He is a hard player to read the market on because you will still have doubters making Marcell a hard sell. But I think this article is meant more for those who have him; have confidence that what Ozuna is doing can be sustained.
And the lineup that he is in regularly — with Dee Gordon, Yelich, and Stanton setting the table — he looks to be in a run-producing environment for years to come, making Ozuna someone you should buy for the right price in dynasty and keeper formats.