Von Miller’s stalemate and more
In this inaugural edition of Stacking The Box, we dive into Von Miller’s stalemate, Teddy Bridgewater’s maturation and NFL news from around the nation.
Von Miller wants to get paid. Denver Broncos general manager John Elway wants to see Miller paid too.
However, the two seem to have two different definitions of that term.
Miller and the Denver brass is at odds over guaranteed money in a new contract, with the All-Pro outside linebacker reportedly seeking near $70 million while the team is stuck around $40 million. Miller has recent history on his side, with great but inferior defenders getting huge chunks of guaranteed green.
Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Fletcher Cox signed for $63.3 million guaranteed earlier in June. Ndamukong Suh went to the Miami Dolphins last offseason for $60 million guaranteed and Olivier Vernon, who has 29 career sacks (Miller has 60 in one more season), signed in March with the New York Giants for the shocking sum of $52.5 million guaranteed.
Currently, the Broncos and Miller are in a wealthy game of tug-of-war. When news broke that the two sides were far apart on a deal (something which appeared to be leaked by the team after making what it believes was a quality six-year, $114 million contract), things turned sour.
Since then, Miller has been active on Instagram. He first cropped Elway out of a picture that was taken at the White House ceremony and then declared he will not be playing on a franchise tag in 2016. The second of the two posts came one day after Miller told Chelsea Handler he would likely not sit out, so perhaps his representation got into his ear.
Elway controls Miller’s rights for the foreseeable future if he wants to play the long game. Denver applied the exclusive franchise tag this offseason, prohibiting any team from making an offer to the four-time Pro Bowler.
Should the two sides fail to agree on a long-term contract by the July 15 deadline, Miller has two options. He can play on the one-year tag for $14.129 million or hold out. If he chooses the latter, he can sit for the first 10 weeks of the season and then return to accrue another year toward free agency. In this instance, Denver could tag Miller again at 120 percent of his 2016 value.
If he pickets for the entire campaign, the Broncos can use the franchise tag but not the exclusive type. Miller would be able to sign an offer sheet with another team, and while the Broncos could match, the right structuring could make that difficult. If Denver lost Miller to another team, it would receive a first and third-round pick as compensation.
Ultimately, Miller is going to get paid by the Broncos, likely on July 15. The length and overall value of the contract are not issues. It is about an overall amount of guaranteed dough and while that is a considerable hurdle, one would imagine the two sides move toward the middle and find common ground.
Last year, there was plenty of talk that Dez Bryant, Justin Houston and Demaryius Thomas were all going to play out the 2015 season on the tag before becoming free agents.
All three signed on the deadline date, racking up more than $200 million between them.
The Broncos know they need Miller in the worst way. Denver has a lackluster offense and a defense that lost both Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan to free agency. If Miller sits out, Shaq Barrett and Shane Ray would be under immense pressure to be full-time forces instead of quality relief pitchers. The Broncos would also be leaning heavily on DeMarcus Ware to lead the pass rush. Ware has missed time this offseason with a balky back and turns 34 years old in July.
For Miller’s part, he is in the prime of his career and coming off a Super Bowl run that saw him go from star to legendary. No player wants to sit on the sideline, especially when they are writing their Hall of Fame resume. Miller also doesn’t want to forfeit $883,062.50 per week by holding out.
Denver and Miller will be together again before training camp. Until then, let the posturing continue.
Film review
The Minnesota Vikings are a very good team. After going 11-5 and winning an unexpected NFC North crown last season, the prognosticators have high hopes for the Purple Gang in 2016.
Minnesota was active in the offseason, jettisoning mercurial wide receiver Mike Wallace and replacing him with first-round draft choice Laquan Treadwell out of Ole Miss. General manager Rick Spielman also signed veteran guard Alex Boone away from the San Francisco 49ers to a four-year, $26.8 million deal in March. Spielman inked right tackle Andre Smith as well to a one-year, $3.5 million pact, hoping to fortify one of the worst offensive lines in the league from a year ago.
With all those moves, the Vikings are hoping to go from contender to favorite, but it won’t happen without maturation from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
Bridgewater came into the league as the 2015 NFL Draft’s 32nd-overall pick and played 13 games his rookie season for Minnesta. The University of Louisville product threw for 2,919 yards and 14 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, averaging 7.26 yards per throw and completing 64.6 percent of his passes.
Last year, Bridgewater posted incredibly similar numbers with 3,231 yards and 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions in 16 games, averaging 7.23 yards/attempt and a 65.3 completion rate.
Minnesota needs Bridgewater to take the proverbial leap from game manager to difference-maker, and the film shows some area we could see improvement. One of the major ones is knowing when to surrender on a play. Despite only throwing nine interceptions, it was evident looking through film that many other potential interceptions were dropped.
Here’s a play in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs that illustrates the point:
Bridgewater has trips to the left and Kyle Rudolph in the right slot. He’s getting a zone concept from the Chiefs. It’s the first drive of the game.
After eluding pressure from Chiefs defensive end Jaye Howard, Bridgewater scrambles right. Here, Bridgewater has to simply unload the ball into the stands or run. Instead, he tries to force the ball to Rudolph, who is covered by two Kansas City defenders with two more in the area.
The result is predictable.
The ball sails over Rudolph and is intercepted by Ron Parker. Minnesota would win the game 16-10, but Bridgewater cost his team early with poor field vision.
This play happened too many times throughout the season. Bridgewater is too accurate and too smart to make these types of throws. We see the same thing out of Andrew Luck on a weekly basis, who has begun to come under fire for poor decision-making. Bridgewater has the smarts to make the right play. He simply has to allow himself to do so.
On the positive side, Bridgewater is excellent with anticipatory throws. It’s clear Bridgewater has a good grasp on the playbook and entering his third year should mean a nice jump in the statistical categories.
Here’s an illustration of Bridgewater at his best in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers:
Minnesota has trips right tight and a single receiver to the left with Adrian Peterson behind Bridgewater. The man to watch here is Rudolph, who is standing on the right hashmarks.
Despite Micah Hyde being stride-for-stride with Rudolph and the pocket collapsing around Bridgewater, the decision is made and the throw is pure. Bridgewater has a small window to fit this ball, and it has to be high and outside. If it is too low or to the inside of the field, Hyde has a better play on it than Rudolph.
The placement is perfect. Bridgewater hits Rudolph and the result is a 48-yard touchdown.
Really, it is more about the process than the result here. Bridgewater shows a nice awareness of his pocket and the ability to understand route concepts. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner wants Rudolph on the deep crossing route or Charles Johnson on the post.
When the two cross at the 35-yard line, Bridgewater makes his decision (and the correct one) by lofting the ball toward Randolph. who has a slight step on Hyde. Bridgewater understands that when Johnson makes his cut, he is going to clear the Green Bay safety out of Rudolph’s zone, making room for a high-quality throw.
If Bridgewater can make more of these plays and cut down on forcing the issue, the Vikings may be playing well into January. Perhaps even February.
Power Rankings
Top 10 uniforms of 2016
1. Oakland Raiders
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Dallas Cowboys
7. New York Jets
8. Washington Redskins
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. Chicago Bears
Quotable
"“It’s funny, when I’m out there running around and cutting on it and doing those things, there is no tentativeness, because I didn’t hurt it that way. I hurt it getting hit.” – Joe Flacco to the Ravens’ official website, on getting past his ACL tear"
Baltimore is one of the toughest teams to figure going into 2016. The roster has talent, but with that talent comes major question marks.
Steve Smith Sr. and Terrell Suggs are both coming off Achilles tears and at ages 37 and 33, respectively, it is no sure thing either ever plays quality football again. If Flacco doesn’t trust his knee or is nervous about pressure around his legs, it could spell doom for the Ravens.
Random stat
Since moving to the desert before the 1988 season, the Arizona Cardinals had three winning seasons before Bruce Arians’ arrival in 2013. Arizona has doubled that number in the three campaigns since.
Lessons learned this week
1. Joey Bosa needs to sign his contract
Bosa’s agent Todd France is reportedly negotiating a hard bargain over offset language in his client’s contract. Bosa, the third-overall pick in April’s draft by the San Diego Chargers, was the only healthy member of the team not at mandatory minicamp.
When you are a rookie and a high-profile one at that, you don’t want negative attention. The expectations are already enormous. For all of France’s talk about rookie contracts being difficult to negotiate, the other 31 first-round picks and their representatives have figured it out.
Bosa needs to sign his deal, get to camp and start working on learning John Pagano’s 3-4 defense.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets are not budging
New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles talked to the media following the team’s mandatory minicamp practice and stated that he will no longer talk about free-agent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, per ESPN.
Fitzpatrick, 33, had a career-year in 2015 under Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, throwing for 3,905 yards and 31 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. The former Harvard standout also built a nice chemistry with receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, who have both voiced their displeasure with Fitzpatrick remaining a free agent into June.
Here’s the core issue: Fitzpatrick wants to get paid $15 million in the first year of a multi-year contract, per Rich Cimini of ESPN. However, the Jets are only offering $12 million and then another $12 million over the following two years. If that contract were to be played out, Fitzpatrick would be a very cheap option at a position that rewards even the slightest potential or growth.
Should the Jets and Fitzpatrick not work a deal out, New York will turn to Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg in the summer’s most depressing quarterback battle.
3. Rob and Rex Ryan are very, very close
Just how close are brothers Rob and Rex Ryan? Well…
https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/744919591235706884?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
The duo might want to get their laughs in now, because this season could be their last stand. Buffalo has not made the playoffs since 1999, the longest active drought in the NFL. With a well-stocked roster and a Pro Bowl quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, the Bills need to find the postseason.
Should Buffalo fall short once more, former Bills quarterback and Hall of Famer Jim Kelly says Ryan’s time should be up in western New York. It’s not unfair, considering Ryan walked in and took over a 9-7 team with all kinds of defensive talent. Last year, the Bills regressed to 8-8 while the defense went from fourth to 19th.
Rex has to make some noise in the AFC. If he doesn’t, a U-Haul will make plenty come January.
4. Jeff Fisher won’t be boxed into a corner
The Los Angeles Rams need to see serious growth, or head coach Jeff Fisher might finally find his seat too hot to handle.
Fisher has managed to stay on the job for a fifth season despite failing to notch a winning campaign in each of his first four tries. General manager Les Snead is finally providing the ultimate help, making a monumental trade to move up in the NFL Draft and land former California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff with the top-overall pick.
While most have assumed Goff would be under center come Week 1, Fisher says that might not be the plan. Despite obvious pressure to win now, or perhaps because of it, Fisher is willing to go with veteran backup Case Keenum until Goff is truly ready.
Deep down, Fisher knows Goff has to start immediately. The pressure from the top on down will be enormous and in a division with the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, the Rams can’t afford to spot anybody a game or two while Goff holds a clipboard.
Keenum is not the short or long-term answer in Los Angeles. Goff has to play if Fisher wants to keep his job any longer.
5. NBC is changing its Sunday Night Football theme song
After 10 years of starting the SNF broadcast with the song “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night,” the powers that be at Peacock Headquarters are going a different route, according to Rolling Stone.
The new song is still recorded by Carrie Underwood, who has been the NBC frontwoman since taking over for Faith Hill in 2013. The new title is “Oh, Sunday night” and was inspired by “Something Bad,” a 2014 duet sung by Underwood and fellow country star Miranda Lambert.
Hopefully NBC also goes with some new players throughout the intro. Perhaps we can see some new stars instead of the same, tired veterans. Here are 10 suggestions:
- Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
- Kam Chancellor, Seattle Seahawks
- Kawaan Short, Carolina Panthers
- Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
- Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
- Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
- Jamie Collins, New England Patriots
- Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit Lions
History lesson of the week
In the spirit of Cleveland celebrating after its transcendent victory over the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, we remember when the Browns were a true power.
Between 1950-55, the Browns went to a record six consecutive NFL title games, winning three. Cleveland came into the NFL in 1950 after a four-year stint in the defunct All-America Football Conference, where it won all four championships.
Parting shot
Potential is a fancy way of saying someone hasn’t done anything yet. There are going to be plenty of teams (in fact, all 32 of them) trumpeting young players and new signings as guys who have ample potential.
The reality? Most of them will recede into the darkness by Week 1. The most expensive bet on potential this offseason happened with the Houston Texans signing quarterback Brock Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million deal.
If the contract were based on actual on-field performance, Osweiler would be getting paid in the same vicinity of Chase Daniel, who signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Eagles. Instead, because of his youth (25 years old) and seven decent starts, the Texans went all-in and paid him like a star.
Osweiler might end up being worth the gamble, but it’s a huge risk by the Texans. Don’t let all the talk of potential convince you otherwise.