DraftKings Early MLB picks for June 25
Eight of the 16 (Tampa and Baltimore are playing two) games are in the early tournament, so that gives us an even split on the day. The Coors Field stack will be this afternoon, so let’s take a look at some stats to find some bargains and exploit that!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Brandon Finnegan has never started against the Padres. The were 0-3 against him in relief. Finnegan has his three best starts to stat June before giving up four runs to Houston on Sunday. As far as long shots go, you could do worse.
Paul Clemens against the Cubs? Pass. He held the Rockies to three runs in Miami, but don’t count on him doing the same to the Cubbies.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
John Lackey ($11,000): Lackey’s numbers against the Marlins don’t look very good, but when you take away Ichiro’s stats, the rest of the current Marlins are 9-40(.225) with a solo homer (by Justin Bour) and 11 strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly good enough to use on a half slate. You have to pay a premium to get Lackey, but if you trust the past stats, Lackey is worth it.
Honorable Mention:
Drew Pomeranz ($9,400): You know how I feel about small sample sizes, but for what it’s worth, the Reds are 1-12(.083) with a strikeout against Drew Pomeranz. On a day chock full of poor track records against their opponents, don’t be surprised if Pomeranz is among the top scorers of the afternoon sessions.
Dark Horse:
Ervin Santana ($4,700): Yes, Ervin has given up his share of runs to the Yankees – 35 to the current lineup to be exact – but there is a bit of a silver lining here, and with today’s matchups, that’s all you can ask for. The Yankees are hitting .254 off of him in 236 at bats with 11 homers and 40 strikeouts. They are facing a struggling Michael Pineda though, and Santana is fresh off a start against the Yankees on Sunday in which he gave up just two runs in 7.1 innings while picking up a win and 20.9 DraftKings points. If he can do something similar today at this price, you are ahead of the game.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Shelby Miller looked solid in his return from the disabled list on Monday, but you couldn’t pay me enough to use him at Coors Field. Don’t worry, I have stats to back it up. Nick Hundley ($3,800) is 4-9 with a double, a homer, and three RBI. Carlos Gonzalez ($5,400) is 4-12 with three walks and a solo homer. DJ LeMahieu ($5,100) is 6-13(.462) with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. The good news for Miller fans/owners? Nolan Arenado is only 2-14…..
The Tiger that hit Carlos Carrasco the hardest, J.D. Martinez, is on the disabled list. However, there are still a few other options. None boast Martinez’s two homers and seven RBI, but you can still get production from guys like Miguel Cabrera ($4,200). Miggy is 9-24(.375) with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Carrasco. Ian Kinsler ($4,100) is 7-26(.269) with a walk, three doubles, and three RBI. Justin Upton‘s ($4,200) one hit in three at bats is a solo homer.
Check out this line: Jonathan Lucroy ($4,000) is 6-8 with three walks, a double, and three RBI against Gio Gonzalez. Ryan Braun ($5,200) is 3-12 with two walks, a double, and two RBI against Gio. He gets a reprieve not having to face Domingo Santana. Santana is the only current Brewer to hit a home run off of Gio Gonzalez.
The White Sox have smacked ten homers off of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. You know there are some stacks here! Jose Abreu ($4,700) is 5-12(.417) with a double, three homers, and five RBI against Dickey. Melky Cabrera ($3,700) is 6-21(.286) with a triple, two homers, and four RBI. Todd Frazier ($3,800) is 4-13(.308) with two walks, two homers, and three RBI against Dickey. Avisail Garcia ($3,100) is 2-5 with a walk and a solo homer. Dioner Navarro ($2,700) is 2-3 with a homer and two RBI off of Dickey. Hey, at least he doesn’t have to face Austin Jackson, who has a homer and four RBI against him!
Matt Garza has given up just one run in 10 innings this year, but the Nationals are hitting .317 against him. Danny Espinosa ($3,900) is only 4-17(.235) off Garza, but he has a double and five RBI. Wilson Ramos ($4,500) is 5-13(.385) with a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI. Jayson Werth ($4,100) is 7-17(.412) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Ryan Zimmerman ($3,500) is 5-14(.357) with four walks, a double, and three RBI.
Yasmany Tomas ($4,900) is on a tear anyway, and he is 3-7 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Jorge De La Rosa. Rickie Weeks ($4,100) is 5-11(.455) with four walks, three doubles, and two RBI. Jake Lamb ($5,400) has proven that he can hit lefties as well. He is 1-2 with a two run homer off De La Rosa. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600) is expensive, but he is only 4-18(.222) against De La Rosa. Now for the good news: he has five walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI.
Next: More Notes For 6-25
Chris Davis ($4,400) is 1-2 with a solo homer against Matt Andriese.
Evan Longoria ($5,200) is 6-21(.286) with three walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Kevin Gausman. Logan Forsythe ($4,500) is 4-7 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI off Gausman.
Alex Rodriguez ($3,900) is 13-42(.310) with three walks, four homers, and 12 RBI off of Ervin Santana. Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran have all taken Santana deep as well. McCann did so on Sunday.
Yes, Michael Pineda is facing the Twins, but Pineda has just one quality start in the last month. And there are reports swirling that Miguel Sano could be back with the team as soon as tomorrow. Sano has a two run homer in three at bats against Pineda. Byung Ho Park ($3,200) is 1-2 with a two run homer as well.
Edwin Encarnacion ($5,500) is only 5-28(.179) against Miguel Gonzalez, but he has four walks, a double, three homers, and ten RBI. Michael Saunders ($5,100) is 1-3 with a two run homer against Gonzalez.
Ichiro Suzuki ($3,100) is 36-119(.303) with six walks, six doubles, a triple, a homer, and seven RBI against John Lackey. If he is in the lineup, he is a solid play today.
Yan Gomes ($3,000) is 7-14 with a walk, a double, a triple, two homers, and eight RBI against Anibal Sanchez. If he is in Cleveland’s lineup, he should be in yours too. Mike Napoli ($3,300) is 3-9 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Anibal.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!