DraftKings MLB picks for June 27
There are ten games today, including the slugging Blue Jays taking a trip to Coors Field. Most lineups will be dominated by that stack. Who can you mix in to help maximize your profits? Let’s take a look!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Remember Chi Chi Gonzalez? He posted a respectable 3.90 ERA in the majors for the Rangers last year. He has never faced the Yankees, but they have looked old a sluggish this year. Gonzalez could be an interesting alternative.
Trevor Bauer‘s major league debut came against the Braves nearly four years to the day (June 28th) ago against the Braves. He gave up two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out three in four innings. Now, this is a very different Braves team this year, but they have still gone 7-22(.318) against Bauer with two runs and seven strikeouts. If he holds them to the current standard, he still wont be worth that $12,800 salary. He will need to have a great one here, and before you discount that, realize that Bauer has a 1.86 ERA in five June starts with 38 strikeouts in 38.2 innings pitched.
Poor Daniel Mengden. He has pitched three very good games, and is 0-3 to show for it. The A’s simply aren’t scoring runs for him. Tonight he gets a Giants team that hasn’t scored much either, and the A’s have hit Samardzija well. Maybe he can get over the hump. The 21 strikeouts in 18 innings also make him easier to take a chance on.
John Gant has never faced Cleveland, but he is facing a hot pitcher and he has a 4.45 ERA. It seems like an unnecessary risk.
Jon Gray has never faced the Blue Jays. Don’t even think about using him here. He has a 6.39 ERA so far in his home park in ten starts. And most of those were against teams that are nowhere near as offensively talented as the Jays are.
Blake Snell has never faced the Red Sox, but he has given up only four runs in three starts. Do you trust him to keep that success up against one of the best offenses in the American League?
Vincent Velasquez held the Diamondbacks to 0-11 in two relief appearances last year. However, he is starting this year, and this is his return from the disabled list. How much do you trust him?
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Noah Syndergaard ($12,200): Syndergaard’s stats against the Nats are better than Arrieta’s against the Reds. The Nats are hitting a little better (.221 in 77 at bats) and have hit more home runs (two to none), but Syndergaard has given up just three runs while racking up a staggering 24 strikeouts. For me, that puts Syndergaard just ahead of Arrieta.
Jake Arrieta ($13,700): You may not want to bet against Arrieta today. The Reds are only hitting .193 against Arrieta in 83 at bats with no homers and 20 strikeouts. They have scored nine runs though. Still, he has racked up nearly a strikeout per inning against the Reds, and they haven’t been able to hit him well or hard. He should put up another strong line tonight.
Marco Estrada ($7,100): The current Rockies are only 10-44(.227) with a homer, three RBI, and 15 strikeouts against Marco Estrada. Those numbers should have him in the upper tier, right? Especially considering the price! However, Estrada has a 9.39 ERA in two career starts at Coors Field. The numbers agree to disagree. All I know is that he should get plenty of run support.
Danny Duffy ($6,800): The Cardinals are a horrible 4-26(.154) against Duffy with just two extra base hits (both Jhonny Peralta doubles), no runs, and eight strikeouts. Duffy has only gone more than six innings once (6.1 against Baltimore on June 6), but he threw a season-high 103 pitches against the Mets earlier this week. If he pitches well, the Royals now feel he is strong enough to top 100 pitches.
Dan Straily ($6,300): This is a bit of a tough sell. First, he is starting against Jake Arrieta. Second, the Cubs have two homers and six RBI off of him in only 29 at bats. So where is the upside? He has eight strikeouts in that span, and the Cubs are only 7-29(.241) against him. The strikeouts make him an interesting, albeit dangerous, alternative.
Ivan Nova ($5,400): Feeling lucky? Well, Nova has held the Rangers to a .216 average in 111 at bats, so it doesn’t seem to be a fluke. They have two homers and 11 runs, which is about average, but have only struck out 13 times. The low strikeout totals and the fact that he has a 7.59 ERA in four June starts show you why you need luck, so I ask again, do you feel lucky? Lucky enough to use Nova?
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The A’s are actually successful against Jeff Samardzija. Billy Butler ($2,800) is 4-10 with a double and four RBI. Max Muncy ($2,000) only has one hit in five at bats, but that hit is a two run homer. Jeff Smolinski ($3,000) is 3-8 with a double, a homer, and two RBI off Samardzija.
Matt Shoemaker has been outstanding lately, but still pretty average against the Astros. Colby Rasmus ($3,600) is 5-13 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Shoemaker. Jose Altuve ($4,800) is 6-14(.429) with two walks, a double and two solo homers against Shoemaker.
Next: More Notes For 6-27
Anthony Rendon ($2,900) has actually hit Noah Syndergaard well. Rendon is 4-10 lifetime against Thor with a double and a solo homer.
Ian Desmond ($4,800) is 3-5 with a solo homer against Ivan Nova already.
All Joe Ross knows is that he is glad he doesn’t have to deal with Lucas Duda. Duda is 2-4 with two solo homers off of him. Unfortunately for Ross, there is still Neil Walker ($3,400) whose only hit in three at bats is a home run.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!