DraftKings MLB picks for June 28
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB picks for June 28
There are ten games today, including the slugging Blue Jays taking a trip to Coors Field. Most lineups will be dominated by that stack. Who can you mix in to help maximize your profits? Let’s take a look!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Phenom Lucas Giolito will make his long-awaited major league debut tonight against the Mets and the struggling Matt Harvey. All things considered, this is a pretty good spot for it to happen, but he is still a risk.
Matt Wisler has never faced the Indians, but Cleveland has won ten straight, and Wisler has a 7.59 ERA in four June starts. Enough said. Don’t even think about it.
Adam Conley has never faced the Tigers, but he put up a stellar 2.59 ERA in June, and that included a game against the Rockies. Conley is pitching well right now, but this is a good offense. There is risk involved.
Rookie Albert Suarez has never faced Oakland, but with his 3.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, he may be worth a shot.
Eddie Butler has never faced the Blue Jays, but his 23 runs given up in four June starts should tell you all you need to know.
The current Giants team is 7-10 lifetime against Kendall Graveman, but he has given up just four runs in his last three games. That said, his low strikeout totals make him a risk.
Erik Johnson gave up six runs to the Orioles on Wednesday. Stay away from him again.
Julio Urias held the Brewers scoreless in five innings back on June 17th while giving up five hits and striking out eight. The Dodgers likely wont let him work more than five innings again, but he put up 23.7 DraftKings points in those five innings. He could still be worth it.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Zack Greinke ($10,600): Greinke has given up just six runs in his last five starts. On top of that, Greinke gets a Phillie team that he dominated on June 18th, racking up 29.6 DraftKings points. The current incarnation of the Phillies is hitting just .165 off of Greinke in 97 at bats with just one homer and six runs while striking out a whopping 31 times. Greinke will be widely used, but it’s more of a risk not to use him here.
Corey Kluber ($13,400): Kluber has two complete games in his last three starts, and tonight he draws a Braves lineup that is hitting only .225 against him in 71 at bats with one home run, only two runs, and 15 strikeouts. He pitched a three hitter against the light-hitting Rays exactly a week ago. He may do the same to the Braves tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Michael Wacha ($7,600): Wacha has held the Royals to a .222 average in 54 at bats with only two extra base hits, three runs, but also only six strikeouts. Wacha’s season ERA is still nearly a run over his career mark, but he has given up only five runs in his last three starts. Wacha is rolling, and facing a team that he has fared well against. He could be worth a look tonight.
Yordano Ventura ($6,900): The yearly I-70 series has allowed Ventura to face the Cardinals regularly, and he has done quite well. The Redbirds are hitting just .226 against Ventura in 53 at bats with one homer, seven runs, and ten strikeouts. The runs that he does give up should be offset by the strikeouts. Then again, his 4.54 ERA will scare a lot of people off, but Ventura should be well-rested after his eight game suspension.
Dark Horses:
Tim Lincecum ($6,200): Lincecum has held the Astros to a horrid .154 average in 39 at bats with only one homer and three RBI (all by Carlos Gomez) with a whopping 15 strikeouts. The strikeout potential alone makes this an intriguing pick.
J.A. Happ ($6,100): Here is an interesting stat: Happ allowed three runs in 6.2 innings in his only career start at Coors Field. He is also holding the current Rockies lineup to a .208 average in 77 at bats with only hone homer (a solo shot by Ryan Raburn in nine at bats), four runs, and an impressive 26 strikeouts. The stats back up using Happ, and with that lineup hitting for him, you have to like his chances.
Kyle Gibson ($5,600): Gibson has held the Pale Hose to a .176 average in 125 at bats with only one homer, ten runs, and 19 strikeouts in his career. Gibson’s lack of strikeouts always make him a risk, but the high number of at bats prove this isn’t a fluke. That said, Gibson has a 6.05 ERA on the year. There is significant risk involved.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
It could be dangerous stacking against Cole Hamels, especially with a Yankees lineup that has struggled at many times this year. The past stats say otherwise. Carlos Beltran ($3,700) is only 11-46(.239), but he has two walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI. Mark Teixeira ($2,200) has struggled this year, but he is 7-20 with two homers and six RBI off of Hamels. Brian McCann ($3,100) is 17-61(.279) with seven walks, seven doubles, three homers, and 15 RBI.
Prior to this year, stacking Nationals against Matt Harvey would have sounded like a good idea. The Nats have put up 11 runs on Harvey in just 7.2 innings pitched this year. Daniel Murphy ($4,900) is 2-4 with a walk, two homers and four RBI against Harvey. Wilson Ramos ($4,500) is 4-15(.267) with a double and three RBI. Anthony Rendon ($3,600) is 6-17(.353) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Ben Revere ($3,800) is 5-15 with two walks, a double, a triple, and three RBI. Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400) is 6-22(.273) with a walk, a double, two homers, and three RBI against Harvey.
Oh, the Dodgers have hit Chase Anderson hard. The Dodgers have smacked eight homers in just 79 at bats against Chase Anderson. Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) is 3-11 against Anderson. All three hits are homers and he has driven in six. Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400) is 6-13(.462) with five walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Chase Utley ($4,300) is 2-5 with a double and a solo homer off of Anderson. Justin Turner ($5,000) is 2-5 with a double and a solo homer. Even Howie Kendrick ($3,700) has a homer in five at bats.
The Red Sox, a few in particular, have pounded on Chris Archer. Mookie Betts ($4,600) is 3-12 with six walks, two homers, and six RBI. Xander Bogaerts ($4,200) is 6-16(.375) with a walk, a double, and a RBI against Archer. David Ortiz ($5,100) is 11-29(.379) with three walks, three doubles, two homers, and a whopping 14 RBI against Archer.
Rick Porcello has been plagued by the long ball against the Rays as well. Newly acquired Oswaldo Arcia ($3,200) is 2-5 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Corey Dickerson ($3,100) is only 2-7, but he does have a solo homer. Logan Forsythe ($3,100) is 5-14(.357) with a triple and two walks. Desmond Jennings ($2,800) is 6-20 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Porcello. Evan Longoria ($3,400) is only 6-30(.200), but he does have two walks, two doubles, and three RBI. Brad Miller ($3,900) is 2-5 with two solo homers off of Porcello.
The Twins hit lefties well, and Jose Quintana is no exception. Brian Dozier ($4,400) is only 7-37(.189), but he has three walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI. Joe Mauer ($2,900) hits everyone pretty well. He is 11-32(.344) with two walks, two homers, and five RBI against Quintana. Trevor Plouffe ($3,600) is 8-25(.320) with six walks, two doubles, and three RBI. Eddie Rosario ($2,900) is 3-8 with a walk and as many RBI as hits off Quintana.
Elvis Andrus ($3,400) has hit CC Sabathia hard. Andrus is 11-25(.440) with a triple and five RBI off of him. Adrian Beltre ($4,000) is only 9-37(.243) off of Sabathia, but he has three walks, three doubles, a homer, and six RBI off him. Prince Fielder ($2,800) is only 5-19(.263) against CC, but he has a homer and four RBI. Shin-Soo Choo ($3,100) is 6-18 with a walk, a double, a homer and two RBI against CC. Ryan Rua ($3,900) is 3-5 with a solo homer.
Matt Kemp ($4,400) will be glad to see Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound again. Kemp is 14-41(.375) with five walks, three doubles, a triple, two homers, and six RBI against Ubaldo. Jon Jay ($3,900) is 3-8 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI off of Jimenez. Melvin Upton Jr.($4,900) is hot anyway, and he is 5-17(.294) with a double and three RBI off Jimenez.
Next: More Notes For 6-27
If Billy Hamilton ($3,600) only faced Jon Lester, he would be a Hall of Famer. Hamilton is 5-7 with a double and a solo homer against Lester. Zack Cozart ($4,100) is 3-9 with a homer and three RBI off Lester.
While nearly all of the Phillies have struggled against Zack Greinke, Ryan Howard ($3,000) is 4-18(.222) with four RBI against him. Odubel Herrera ($4,100) is 2-6 with a solo homer.
A.J. Pierzynski ($2,000) is 4-15(.267) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Corey Kluber from his time with the White Sox. Can he recapture some of that magic?
Matt Carpenter ($5,000) is 2-7 with a homer and three RBI against Yordano Ventura.
Chris Iannetta ($3,700) is 3-9 with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against the struggling Jon Niese.
The Marlins are hitting a staggering .420 against Mike Pelfrey. Most of the damage was done by the two veterans. Martin Prado ($3,900) is 10-22(.455) with three walks, six doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800) is 9-19(.474) with four walks, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI off of Pelfrey.
Mike Trout ($4,900) is 6-21(.286) with a double, two homers, and four RBI against Scott Feldman.
Brett Lawrie ($3,700) is about the only White Sox player that has had any kind of success against Kyle Gibson. Lawrie is 4-7 with a double and a RBI off Gibson.
Jerad Eickhoff has had a nice run in June, except for the game on June 18th, which just happened to be against Arizona. Nick Ahmed and Paul Goldschmidt both homered off of him in that game.
If Chris Stewart ($2,400) gets the start, he is 3-5 with a double and a solo homer off of Hisashi Iwakuma. David Freese ($3,800) is only 5-21(.238) off of Iwakuma, but he has two doubles, two homers, and three RBI. Iwakuma has also given up 12 runs in his past three starts.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!