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5 reasons Andrew Luck extension is a bad move for Colts

By John Buhler

Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) runs off the field after losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) runs off the field after losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 27, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) celebrates with wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) after a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Jaguars 38-27. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) celebrates with wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) after a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Jaguars 38-27. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

3. The AFC South isn’t a cakewalk anymore

This sounds harsh, but Indianapolis in both the Manning and Luck eras has tremendously benefited from playing in the worst division in the NFL since its creation in 2002. Part of the reason Manning’s team could go 12-4 every year and Luck can get his club to 11-5 annually is that the Colts were largely expected to go a perfect 6-0 in a putrid AFC South.

Jacksonville has been rebuilding for seemingly the last decade. Houston has never had elite play from its quarterback (Matt Schaub was good and we’ll see about Brock Osweiler). Tennessee might be the most dysfunctional organization in the NFL outside of the AFC North’s Cleveland Browns.

While Indianapolis has historically dominated a bad division, they’ve actually only won two of the last three. Houston won the AFC South in 2011, 2012, and 2015. The Texans with that defense and an improved offense might be favored to win the AFC South again in 2016. Jacksonville is close to being playoff caliber. Tennessee might win six games this year if things progress with Mariota under center.

In essence, the days of the Colts waltzing through the AFC South are over. Those extra few wins in year’s past have helped inflate both Manning and Luck’s career winning percentages and personal stats.

Luck may be a three-time Pro Bowler and boasts a career 35-20 record as the Colts quarterback, but if he’s getting paid on past performance, it will definitely come across as misleading. If he can still win AFC South Championships as the division improves, then his extension could be very well worth it. Otherwise, Irsay just overspent on a .500 quarterback outside of AFC South play.

Next: 2. What if he gets hurt again?

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