DraftKings Late MLB picks for June 30

Jun 12, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Mike Leake (8) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Late MLB picks for June 30

Eight of the games are in the late tournament, so that makes it the larger tournament of the day. The pitchers dominated the day, the hitters may dominate the night!

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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.

Steven Matz has never faced the Cubs, but the bone spur issue which is plaguing him is enough for me to shy away from this. I don’t trust him right now. He has given up 18 runs (15 earned) in his last five starts. He has allowed only six in the previous seven starts. Something is wrong, even if the Mets wont admit it.

Mike Foltynewicz was very good against the Marlins last August in the only time he faced them (two runs, four strikeouts in 5.2 innings). He also didn’t have to deal with Giancarlo Stanton in that contest. Stanton is heating up, and Foltynewicz is returning from a stint on the DL. I would gamble elsewhere.

Dillon Overton was solid in his debut against the Angels, but he did allow three solo home runs. If he does that tonight against Bumgarner, chances are he will lose. Bumgarner has a 1.99 ERA. Overton doesn’t pick up enough strikeouts to warrant the risk here.

Mike Leake has never faced the Royals, and he is facing the struggling Chris Young, so he could be worth a shot here. He doesn’t rack up much for strikeouts, and the Royals aren’t free swingers, but he has a great chance for a win, whatever that’s worth.

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Next: Pitcher Picks

Jun 13, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (54) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

John Lackey ($10,600): Lackey has held the Mets to a .235 average in 166 at bats, but he has only notched 33 strikeouts. That is a bit of a concern, because you need something to offset the 13 runs allowed. That said, among the top tier of pitchers today, Lackey has the best track record against his opponent. And he his facing a pitcher battling bone spurs, and an offense struggling to score runs.

Jake Odorizzi ($7,700): The Tigers are hitting a respectable .257 against Odorizzi in 70 at bats, but they have just three runs scored and 18 strikeouts. Odorizzi has done a great job of limiting damage, and with the history of the Rays bats against Zimmerman, Odorizzi could be a very nice play.

Honorable Mention:

Gio Gonzalez ($7,400): Gio is a bit of an enigma against the Reds. On one hand, they are hitting .247 in 85 at bats, but have struck out 24 times already. On the other, they have driven in 12 runs against him. The ones that hit him the hardest may not be the ones you expect. More on that later. That said, I like his chances against Finnegan, and he should get enough strikeouts to offset the runs.

Wei-Yin Chen ($6,900): Chen caught a huge break in being pushed back a day. Instead of facing the Tigers, he gets a Braves team that is hitting only .214 off him in 84 at bats with a homer, six runs, and an impressive 25 strikeouts. Maybe the Marlins designed it this way to get Chen and his 5.00 ERA a much needed confidence boost. At any rate, it turns Chen into a very good play tonight.

Dark Horses:

R.A. Dickey ($6,600): Should you really play Dickey and ditch Carrasco? The stats support it. The Indians are hitting only .236 against Dickey in 127 at bats, compared to the Jays’ .308 off Carrasco. Cleveland has only homered twice off of Dickey, but they have driven in 15 runs. They have also struck out 32 times.

Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?

Jun 20, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Brandon Moss (37) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.

Madison Bumgarner allowed three runs in his last start, which was the first time he had allowed that many since April 15th. The Giants offense is failing him, and the A’s have hit him well, believe it or not. Billy Butler ($2,400) is 2-6 with a homer and three RBI. Coco Crisp ($3,300) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Josh Reddick ($3,000) is 2-3 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI off of MadBum. This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t use him tonight. Just be aware that he might give up closer to three runs again than zero.

Those of you going to the game in Tampa tonight should watch out for flying objects. The Rays have hit eight homers against Jordan Zimmerman in just 73 at bats. Logan Morrison ($3,500) has three of them and five RBI even though he is just 4-20 lifetime against Zimmerman. Curt Casali ($2,300) is 2-4 with a walk and a solo homer. Corey Dickerson ($3,400) is 2-3 with a double and a solo homer. Fortunately for Zimmerman, the Steves (Pearce and Souza) are on the DL. Pearce is 4-11 with two doubles and two homers. Souza is 3-5 with a solo homer.

Enough Cleveland players have hit R.A. Dickey well enough to advocate a stack, so long as you know who to use. Lonnie Chisenhall($3,500) is only 3-11(.273), but he has three RBI. Rajai Davis ($4,100) is 5-11 with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI. Juan Uribe ($2,900) is only 3-13(.231), but he has a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Dickey. Mike Napoli ($3,600) has been the best against Dickey. He is 7-24(.292) with four walks, two doubles, a homer, and six RBI.

Stacking against Chris Young because he has a 6.54 ERA isn’t a bad idea on it’s own, but in case you are still skeptical, I have some stats to back it up. Matt Carpenter ($5,500) is 3-4 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Matt Holliday ($4,700) is 7-24(.292) with four doubles and seven walks, but has not driven in a run against Young. Brandon Moss ($4,800) is 5-19(.263) with two walks, four homers, and six RBI against Young.

Next: More Notes For 6-30

Jun 28, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) singles against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Donaldson ($4,400) is 2-3 with a walk and a solo homer against Carlos Carrasco. Kevin Pillar ($2,800) is 2-4 with a triple and two RBI against Carrasco. The Jays as a team are hitting a healthy .308 off of Carrasco!

Robinson Cano ($4,100) is 14-34(.412) with three walks, a double, two homers, and eight RBI against Chris Tillman. Nelson Cruz ($4,000) only has three hits in 14 at bats off of Tillman, but two of those are solo home runs and he has walked three times. Leonys Martin($3,300) is 3-9 with a homer and two RBI off Tillman.

Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos each have a solo homer in three at bats against Reds starter Brandon Finnegan.

Curtis Granderson ($3,500) is 10-41(.244) against John Lackey with five walks, two doubles, two triples, a homer, and two RBI. James Loney ($2,900) is only 6-26(.231), but he has two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,100) is only 7-31(.226) off Lackey, but he has a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI.

Mark Trumbo ($3,700) is 2-3 with a solo homer against Taijuan Walker. Matt Wieters ($3,400) is 3-4 with a double, a homer, and two RBI.

Eugenio Suarez ($3,900) is perfect against Gio Gonzalez with two singles, a homer, and two RBI. Joey Votto ($4,400) is 6-15 with three walks, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI against Gio.

Erick Aybar ($2,400) is 3-7 with a walk, two doubles, and a solo homer off of Wei-Yin Chen.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!