The Weekside: The no-downside NBA free agents worth overpaying
By Jared Wade
The NBA Finals are finished, the draft is done, and free agent season has officially arrived.
It will be a lot of things.
It will be awash with cash, featuring eight- and nine-figure deals for players who seemingly don’t deserve the money. It will be competitive, with teams from sea to sea trying to one up one another through any trickery possible under the collective bargaining agreement. It will be fast-paced, with new contracts being inked in rapid succession starting just minutes after the bell tolls midnight.
And, at times, it will be hard to hold back the laughter when the wrong team signs the wrong player to the wrong deal. Some bad, bad signings are inevitable in any offseason. That will only be magnified when half the teams in the league have max cap room available and there are not enough needle-changing guys on the market.
Despite the chance for foolish moves, however, there is one constant in every free agency period. While it’s always best to sign the right player to the right deal, there is also a binary element to all this.
For every player, regardless of his guaranteed salary, it all comes down to one yes-or-no fact: You either employ the person or you don’t.
To get better, you have to spend. And to actually sign anyone this summer, you have to over-spend. It’s simple supply and demand.
The key is not tossing around money foolishly.
Outside of signing LeBron James or Kevin Durant, it’s hard to say any deal finalized this summer will still look good in a few years. But there are a few options that make the most sense. There are several players who are definitely worth paying for in an unprecedented summer of salary-cap upheaval.
Nicolas Batum
There are several more-enticing options on the market than Nicolas Batum. He isn’t a superstar. You can’t give him the ball and say “go win the game.” He isn’t a fan draw who sells tickets.
What he lacks in pizzazz and marketability, however, he makes up with all-around play. Batum, still only 27 despite being an eight-year vet, does everything well.
He is a high-level defender with long arms and smarts in both an individual and team sense. He handles the ball well while consistently making good decisions. He shoots accurately enough to make teams stick with him all over the floor.
In his lone campaign with the Charlotte Hornets last season, he posted statistical highs in several traditional stat categories, posting per-game averages of 14.9 points (career high), 5,8 assists (yup), and 6.1 rebounds (his second-best total). He did all this while never dominating the ball and arguably being at his best on the defensive end. Throw in his positional versatility — his wingspan means he can defend non-hulking players above his 6’8” height and his foot speed allows him to check non-waterbug guards — and Batum is suited to how basketball is being played in 2016.
The money sounds high. Nic’s max contract starts around $27 million per year, and he won’t be any good team’s best player. That sounds hard to swallow. But that’s the new salary world of today’s NBA.
The kicker here is that most local reports have said he plans to re-sign with the Charlotte Hornets. He had an excellent season there, and the Hornets can offer him more money and years than anyone else. But he is taking meetings elsewhere — starting in Dallas, apparently — as he returns to the United States after spending off time in France.
So those looking to lure him away now have hope.
Evan Fournier
After trading away Victor Oladipo, it seems impossible that the Orlando Magic will part with Evan Fournier. He is a restricted free agent, meaning that even if he signs with another franchise, his incumbent team can simply chose to match that offer and retain his services.
Are they willing to go all the way up to the max though?
The answer is: probably. It might be certainly.
But while there is a downside to being the team that initially gets him to sign, only to watch him return to the Magic, the 23-year-old is still worth a shot for a team with lots of cap room and little hope of getting any Tier 1 free agents.
Fournier shoots very well, gets into traffic easily, and looks savvier than most players his age. Though he may not be a franchise player who seems worthy of the “max player” label, he will always be a guy you want on your team.
The most likely scenario here is obviously Fournier signing a four- or five-year max deal to stay in Orlando. Nevertheless, if that’s what happens, then the Magic are well on their way to having a good offseason. In this market, that’s what his skill set is worth.
Kent Bazemore
This selection is starting to show my hand. As the cap continues to rise again next season, non-max deals signed this summer will become a little bit more palatable by 2018.
If you sign someone who completely flops — like coming up on the wrong end of a Joakim Noah or Chandler Parsons injury — then managing a payroll going forward after that will become onerous. On the other hand, getting good production, even if overpaying by 30%, won’t saddle the books too badly.
That’s why the Batums and Kent Bazemores of this free agent class are the biggest prizes outside of the absolute top guys.
Of course Hassan Whiteside is a better player than both, and Bradley Beal may have a much higher ceiling. Signing either of them could take a team to greater heights more quickly.
The downside — Whiteside’s Whiteside-ness, Beal never being able to stay healthy for a full season — is also much greater. Being risk averse is not sexy, but Kent Bazemore is unlikely to let a team down. He might end up being overpaid, but barring catastrophe, he will be a solid contributor. Can you really guarantee that we’ll be saying the same thing about Bismack Biyombo in 2018?
The risk on paying some players this summer, like Chandler Parsons, is that you end up paying $20-plus million for a guy who soon deserves something closer to zero. The risk with Bazemore, on the other hand, is spending $18 million on a guy who deserves $12 million.
In a market with so much certainly, the real winners may end up being those who chose safety.
The Best of the Rest
All of the players above are absolute can’t-misses at almost any price. The below carry a bit more downside based on various factors. But overpaying a bit is unlikely to do any real damage. Get them now — if you can.
Allen Crabbe
Offer a big deal to the slick-shooting Mr. Crabbe and try to make the Portland Trail Blazers dizzy. He doesn’t have a long track record of success, but his size and age limit downside potential. He can hit 3s and won’t kill you anywhere. The cool hair is just a bonus, and the Blazers could end up letting him slip through the cracks if they over-focus on other, more allurring free agents.
Mirza Teletovic
Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated summed up what Mirza, whose only drawback is his 31 years spent being alive, brings to the court. “It’s uncommon for a spot-up specialist to average 20.6 points per 36 minutes, but Teletovic understands how to work the perimeter to make himself available,” wrote Mahoney, adding that “even those that stay close sometimes can’t recover quickly enough to much influence Teletovic’s release, and those that do only activate Teletovic’s functional in-between game.”
Tyler Johnson
There is nothing exciting about signing Tyler Johnson. Most of a team’s fans won’t even know who he is. But he is reliable on both sides of the court and can fill the backup point guard role for any franchise. As Zach Lowe notes, Johnson is a great “poison pill” candidate, giving creative GMs various ways to try to steal him away from a Miami Heat team that is currently more caught up with re-signing Dwyane Wade.
Courtney Lee
Like Mirza, the only bad thing you can say is that he’s getting old. But the 31-year-old Courtney Lee makes shots and defends. He is unlikely to stop doing either any time soon. A smart team will try to sign him to a two- or three-year deal rather than giving out all four. Given the dollars at stake, though, even adding on that final season to differentiate yourself from other suitors is unlikely to blow up in your face.