FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 3
Welcome to the Sunday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook!
Sunday’s MLB action kicks off at 1:07PM EST with a full day of FanDuel MLB games that caps off with the prime time ESPN game between the Marlins and Braves.
The “Main Slate” starts at 1:07PM EST with 9 games but FanDuel also offers an All Day slate
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 256.0 | $ 8,638 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,295 | 7.31 |
| 5 Day | 254.1 | $ 8,191 | 23% | 77% | $ 3,351 | 7.26 |
| Prev Day | 275.8 | $ 9,200 | 26% | 74% | $ 3,225 | 7.88 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
After the past few days of split slates, Sunday gives us a full day of FanDuel MLB action with multiple top end pitchers to choose from when building out our rosters. Stephen Strasburg gets a top match up with the Reds but carries risk in his first start off the DL, Jon Lester and Noah Syndergaard are pitted against each other and Corey Kluber has the unfortunate task of pitching in Toronto. All that said, there is one ace who’s recent performance and match up make him the top play today.
Cole Hamels ($10,100) at Minnesota: The Rangers ace has been on an absolute roll with 3 consecutive 50+ point starts and over the last month has averaged the second most points of any starter on the slate.
Hamels is a solid road favorite (-160) and takes on a Twins team that has a 24.5% K rate which is just above Hamels season mark of 23.6%.
The Rangers are the 6th highest projected scoring team on the day against Kyle Gibson so run support should not be an issue for Hamels and put him in the best position of all the aces to pick up the win.
Michael Wacha ($7,400) at home versus Milwaukee: For those of you just starting out in DFS, one of the simplest metrics I utilize when first sorting through my pitching choices is to look at the Vegas lines to identify the pitchers in the best positions to get the 12 point FanDuel win and also the opponents K rate which helps target the strikeout upside we look for in large field entries.
Wacha checks both boxes on Sunday as the largest favorite (-190) and takes on a Brewer team that strikes out at a 26.2% clip, again the highest on the slate.
Wacha has been very solid over the last month, averaging 32 points per start and over his last 3 starts that mark has increased to 38.3 which would be 5.2x value at this mid tier price point.
Pitching Summary: With a large slate and two clear-cut options in my mind, I will look to target a dual entry day splitting my rosters between Hamels and Wacha. The other top end pitchers have red flags in terms of injuries (Strasburg off the DL and Syndergaards bone spurs) and tough match ups (Kluber in Toronto and Lester against a resurgent Mets team) that makes Hamels the safest option in cash games. Wacha has a relatively safe floor in the mid 30’s and has 40-50 point upside in this match-up and makes for a great GPP play.
Next: Who are top offenses on Sunday?
Looking through the offensive options on Sunday, there are 11 teams projected to score between 4.5 and 5 runs which means diversifying your lineups and employing one-off plays or mini-stacks may be the best option when building your rosters.
Charlie Blackmon ($3,300) & Carlos Gonzalez ($3,600): The two Rockies sluggers get an intriguing match up with against RHP Brandon McCarthy and sit at very reasonable price points when building your rosters.
Blackmon has a .365 wOBA against RHP and we can expect the Rockies to go slightly over looked with a road game in Los Angeles which makes them intriguing GPP plays.
CarGo is averaged 21.7 points per game over the last week and has an elite wOBA .422 against RHP and .297 ISO which makes CarGo one of the best bang for your buck plays of the night.
Jose Altuve ($3,600) versus LHP Jose Quintana: Altuve versus a LHP under 4k? Yes. Just do it.
The Astros make an interesting stack Sunday as a home matchup against a lefty sets up well for players like Altuve, Evan Gattis ($2,600) and George Springer ($4,400).
Interestingly enough, Quintana has great career BvP numbers against these Astros hitters, in 85 at bats giving up a .212 average with only 3 extra base hits and 0 home runs.
Hitting Summary: As you can see, this is a great day to target one-off hitters instead of all out stacks and if you drop down to Wacha as your SP, you can build a top-tier lineup that is ripe with upside.
Next: Top FanDuel MLB lineup
Below you will find my initial lineup for Sunday’s All Day FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Michael Wacha ($7,400)
More from FanSided
- MLB Rumors: Cardinals budging on Arenado, Orioles-Ohtani package, Yankees backup plan
- Patriots backup plan for DeAndre Hopkins is a shot in the dark
- Raiders: Saquon Barkley’s new contract may have screwed over Josh Jacobs
- Clark Hunt throws cold water on potential Chiefs throwbacks
- Packers: 3 free agency mistakes Brian Gutekunst should already regret
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!