FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 4

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

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Monday’s July 4th action starts bright and early at 11:05AM EST if you are playing the all-day slate, with another 9 games during the 1:35PM EST early slate and capping off with 4 games on the 7:07PM EST main slate.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period	Score	Pitcher Salary	Pitcher %	Hitter %	Hitter $/Player	Value
Season	256.4	$ 8,645	25%	75%	$ 3,294	7.33
5 Day	272.9	$ 8,450	24%	76%	$ 3,319	7.80
Prev Day	284.0	$ 9,200	26%	74%	$ 3,225	8.11

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Next: Who are the top pitching options on Monday's Slate

With the All-Day slate starting at 11AM EST, locking in an all day lineup on FanDuel will be very risky as many of the early games will not even have lineups locked yet and I typically try to avoid unnecessary risk of guessing lineups so I will look to target the Early Only slate primarily on July 4th!

Kyle Hendricks ($9,200) at home versus Cincinnati: Hendricks is the highest priced pitcher on the early slate and considering he is an overwhelming home favorite (-265) in a match up against the Reds, he makes for a very safe cash game choice.

Hendricks has averaged 44.7 points per start over the last 2 weeks, which is the 3rd best of any pitcher on the entire day and would generate just under 5x value at this price point.

Hendricks faced this same Reds team his last time out, racking up 41 FanDuel points while going 6.2 innings and striking out 5 in a win on June 29.

Matt Harvey ($8,400) at home versus Miami: As a Mets fan, I saw this price and almost immediately locked in Harvey but knew I had to go back over the slate to make sure I was not being biased with my blue and orange glasses on. Well after looking it over, I just do not see a pitcher that screams must play and Harvey’s 10k pedigree at the same price point as Jerad Eickhoff is a spot I want to target.

Harvey’s per game averages are skewed by his rain shortened 3.2 inning outing last week against the Nationals, but watching every pitch of these starts, I see a pitcher getting more and more comfortable and the velocity kicking back to where it once was.

One of Harvey’s best outings was against the Marlins when he matched Jose Fernandez for 7 innings and Harvey has always had great career numbers against the Marlins.

In 129 at bats, Harvey has held the Miami batters to a .169 average with only 4 extra base hits and 1 home run. The fact that Harvey is a solid (-160) home favorite and is taking the mound with his team on a 4 game roll after sweeping the Cubs, well call me a homer but I am all in on the Dark Knight!

Pitching Summary: On the Early slate we miss out on Max Scherzer in the 11am game which leaves us a variety of sub $10k options to choose from. In cash games, Hendricks is the safe play to build around but for tournaments I am going to roll the dice with Harvey as the pitcher with the best pure arsenal and pedigree on the slate.

Next: Who are top offenses on Monday?

With very few pitchers to avoid during the early slate, that means we have a variety of favorable spots to pick from when building our FanDuel MLB offensive rosters!

Chicago Cubs against LHP Cody Reed: One additional reason to pivot away from Hendricks and move to Harvey as your starting pitcher is you get one additional Cubs bat in your lineup and believe me, this is a spot we want to stack.

The Cubs head back to Wrigley to face Reed, who just last week pitched 4 innings while giving up 9 hits and 7 runs to this same Chicago team.

Kris Bryant ($4,100) is clearly the top dog here and it can be argued he is the best hitter on the slate with 5 home runs in his last 7 games. Javier Baez ($2,500) & Willson Contreras ($2,900) present great bargain plays assuming they are in the lineup and do not sleep on Anthony Rizzo ($3,400) who even in a lefty-lefty match up was able to homer off Reed in the last outing.

Jose Altuve ($3,800) against LHP Wade Miley: BvP haters can go ahead and skip over this bullet but sometimes the history is so one-sided we have to take notice. Altuve is an absurd 10 for 15 in his career against Miley and at a sub 4k price makes for one of the best plays on the early slate.

Miguel Sano ($2,800) against RHP Kendall Graveman: Sano has come off the DL with a bang with 47 points in his last two games and I want to get exposure to Sano while his price point is below 3k as I expect it will rise quickly in the coming days.

Hitting Summary: The Cubs stack in the early slate feels like a must play and with the Red Sox at home and the Astros against a LHP, I expect the ownership to be spread out which makes this is an even better spot to target them as the basis for your roster construction.

Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup for Monday

Below you will find my initial lineup for Monday’s Early FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Pitcher:

More from FanSided

Catcher: Willson Contreras ($2,900)

First Base: Anthony Rizzo ($3,400)

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($3,800)

Third Base: Kris Bryant ($4,100)

Shortstop: Javier Baez ($2,500)

Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,600)

Outfield: Miguel Sano ($2,800)

Outfield: Yoenis Cespedes ($3,600) Yo is on a 7 game hitting streak and hitting the ball with authority. If you have not seen this home run from over the weekend, then please enjoy!

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!