Fantasy Football: Dion Lewis PPR Overview
Fantasy Football Preview: Dion Lewis PPR
The hype train only lasted a few weeks for Dion Lewis. Unfair. He was a monster when healthy, but his season was cut short due to a torn ACL. Oh no, the dreaded ACL injury, how will he ever come back!? Stop with the nonsense, in just seven games, Lewis had 36 receptions and four TD’s. He averaged 4.8 YPC, he’s the next Gio Bernard. He was PPR gold before the arrival of Jeremy Hill and frankly, he still is PPR gold, just not as valuable as he once was. The knocks on Lewis come as follows, the ACL injury, he’s a Patriots RB, and he had seven games of production. He’s also just 5’7 and has durability concerns, so with all of these issues, how could one trust Lewis, I’ll do my best to show you the path to the best of my ability.
Injury: Dion did in fact suffer a torn ACL, but due to medical advancements, the injury is much less significant than it once was. Sure, it’s not ideal for your third-fourth round fantasy selection but he suffered the injury in week nine, that’s more than enough time to recover. Now if this was a ruptured Achilles, the issue would be much more important due to agility being sapped. I’m no doctor but there is no reason to completely overreact over an injury. We have already seen videos posted of Lewis cutting and completing agility drills. I know Adrian Peterson is a whole different animal but when I was less experienced in the world of fantasy, I completed avoided Peterson due to the late ACL tear. He ended up falling eight yards short of the NFL record in rushing yards. The point is, lowering your shares is fine, but don’t avoid Lewis in PPR simply because of the injury.
Next: How does one trust a Pats RB?
Trusting a Patriots RB?
I rarely have selected Patriots backs, so I understand the issue. But the reason before was the lack of an exceptional talent. The exceptional talent is Dion Lewis. Ignore the past statistics on poor RB play for New England. Dion Lewis is a special back, but for fantasy purposes, his three-four round draft stock is strictly for PPR.
According to playerprofiler.com Lewis led the league in juke rate. This is a key statistic to determine one’s elusiveness and ability to avoid tacklers. He saw 62% of the snap share which is slightly more than David Johnson is expected to receive this season as the Cardinals starter David Johnson is expected to receive and that clearly has not scared too many away. Blount is an old, short yardage back is absolutely no threat to his playing time.
Even when Lewis was injured, Blount was ineffective and rarely used in the playoffs for NE. Even James White, who was the favorite for third down back last season, could not be effective late in the season. Dion was also a monster in college, so despite the fact that he was relatively unknown by the football community and was a 5th round pick, don’t let that scare you. Any RB that can average five catches per game, even with Brady likely out for the first four games is worthy of a 3-4th round selection in fantasy drafts.
Next: How does one trust limited production?
Limited Production?
Dion Lewis performed insanely well, for RB’s who played at least six games last season, Lewis finished 3rd for fantasy points per game. I do not think he will finish as a top three back this season, but he’s currently going around RB 14.
If one were to be in a regular 12 man snake league, Lewis is a great 3rd player to have on your roster. He has top 10, even top seven upside in PPR formats.
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He has obvious risk to him but he’s a very strong back for his size, hence the limited speed with a 4.57 40 yard dash time. But his quickness is unmatched and due to the lack of quality depth for the Patriots, the only thing that will hinder Lewis’ ability to produce this year, is an injury. He had fantastic stats back at U of PITT, so he has proven he can produce, though it was against weaker competition, of course. Unless the Patriots sign Arian Foster or trade for a back (unlikely), than Lewis should be a main target of yours in all PPR leagues. Don’t let the ACL injury scare you away from Lewis.
Make sure you have solid RB depth when selecting Lewis though, because he’s a little risky. For those who enjoy going WR heavy, Lewis is worth grabbing in the third round after locking up those two key WR1’s.