DraftKings MLB Picks For July 5
The Cubs and Reds have an afternoon tilt at Wrigley, which leaves us 14 games for the main tournaments. We have plenty of options today with a few aces in action. Who will be worth the price? Let’s check the stats!
More from DraftKings
- DraftKings Open Championship picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
- Genesis Scottish Open DraftKings picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
- Rocket Mortgage Classic DraftKings picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
- US Open DraftKings picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
- RBC Canadian Open DraftKings picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Kenta Maeda has never faced the Orioles, but he has fared well against the rest of the league so far. The Japanese “rookie” is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Still, there is risk involved using him against an offense like the Orioles.
Likewise, Chris Tillman has never faced the Dodgers, but he has come crashing back to earth in June. He posted an ugly 5.19 ERA in the month despite his 3-1 record.
Zach Davies was not at his best against this same Nationals team back on June 24, giving up three runs on seven hits and a walk through five innings. The silver lining is that he struck out nine and still earned the win. He could have a similar outing – and result – here.
Sean Manaea pitched well against the Twins back on June 1st, allowing one run on five hits in six innings while striking out eight. Miguel Sano is back, so that could make a little bit of difference, but Manaea has the potential for another solid outing here.
The last time we saw Steven Matz against the Marlins, he got torched to the tune of seven runs in 1.2 innings pitched on April 11th. The Marlins own a career .385 average against him. Leave this alone.
Zach Eflin has never faced the Braves, and that 5.75 ERA will scare a lot of DFS players off. Maybe it shouldn’t. His last two starts have been solid, but he only has four strikeouts over those 12 innings.
For you first time players, if you would like two free $20 entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,800): Tanaka has held the White Sox to a .239 average in 67 at bats with two homers, six runs, and an impressive 18 strikeouts. That said, the White Sox are hot right now, so if you don’t want to pay up for a stud, this may be a night to pass on all of them. All of the other expensive pitchers have had their struggles against tonight’s opponents.
Honorable Mention:
Tim Lincecum ($6,900): Lincecum has struggled since a strong first outing, and the current Rays squad has hit three homers off of him. On the other hand, they are only hitting .200 with 12 strikeouts in 40 at bats. There is potential here, but using Lincecum right now is still taking a sizable risk.
Dark Horses:
Wei-Yin Chen ($5,600): On the surface, Chen’s numbers against the Mets don’t look that great. He has given up four homers in 94 at bats, and allowed a .245 average. The bright side is that he has allowed only nine runs, so he has limited the damage, and he has 19 strikeouts, a pretty darn good number for someone this cheap. I would be surprised if Chen didn’t reach value for this price.
Chris Young ($4,600): Flummoxed? Me too. I never would have guessed that the Blue Jays would only be hitting .196 in 92 at bats against the soft-tossing veteran. Not only that but they have just one homer and only five runs, and a whopping (for Young) 24 strikeouts. For those of you that are really daring, this is the gamble for you!
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Yes, I do realize that this game is at AT&T Park and not Coors Field, but these stats are worth noting. Christian Adames ($2,000) has had a great start to his career against Madison Bumgarner. He is already 4-6 with a triple and two RBI. Nolan Arenado ($3,600) is only 7-31(.226), but he has a walk, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI off of MadBum. Charlie Blackmon ($3,600) is 5-12(.417) with a double and a RBI. Mark Reynolds ($2,900) is 4-11(.364) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Carlos Gonzalez ($2,800 )has managed to hit Bumgarner well. CarGo is 17-53(.321) with four walks, four doubles, five homers, and ten RBI off of the Giants ace.
The Tiger that hit Carlos Carrasco the hardest, J.D. Martinez, is on the disabled list. However, there are still a few other options. None boast Martinez’s two homers and seven RBI, but you can still get production from guys like Miguel Cabrera ($3,900). Miggy is 10-28(.357) with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Carrasco. Ian Kinsler ($4,300) is 7-30(.233) with a walk, three doubles, and three RBI. Justin Upton‘s ($3,000) one hit in six at bats is a solo home run. Want a reason to beware this stack? Carrasco pitched a four hit shutout against the Tigers on June 25th.
David Price‘s ERA is still a bit on this high side at 4.74, and facing Texas likely wont help. Elvis Andrus ($3,600) is 12-27(.444) with seven walks and seven RBI. Shin-Soo Choo ($3,900) is 8-21(.381) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Price. Adrian Beltre ($4,200) is 11-35(.314) with four doubles, two homers, and six RBI off Price. Ian Desmond ($5,000) is already 3-5 with a homer and two RBI off Price.
Yes, I am advocating a stack against Dallas Keuchel. Chris Iannetta ($3,200) is 6-20 with six walks, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Keuchel. Seth Smith ($3,400) is 4-13 (.308) against Keuchel with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI. Leonys Martin ($3,400) has only gone 5-23(.217), but he has driven in six runs! Look out for Nelson Cruz ($5,300). Cruz is 8-20 with three walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Keuchel. Robinson Cano ($4,100) is only 7-26(.269), but he has a walk, a homer, and five RBI off Keuchel.
Taijuan Walker pitched well against the Astros back on April 25th, but his career numbers against them still aren’t good. Evan Gattis ($3,600) is 5-15 with a double, two homers, and four RBI against Walker. Jose Altuve ($5,300) is 8-23(.348) with three doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Colby Rasmus ($3,700) is 5-14(.357) with two doubles and a solo homer against Walker. George Springer ($4,700) is only 3-13, but he does have a walk, a homer and three RBI against Taijuan.
Check out this line: Jonathan Lucroy ($3,600) is 6-10 with three walks, a double, and three RBI against Gio Gonzalez. Ryan Braun ($4,900) is 3-13 with two walks, a double, and two RBI against Gio. Chris Carter ($3,800) tagged him for a three run homer back on June 25th.
Mike Leake has struggled in his career against the Pirates. David Freese ($4,000) is 11-22 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and five RBI off Leake. Josh Harrison ($3,300) is only 7-29(.241) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Jung Ho Kang ($4,100) is 3-7 with a solo homer. Starling Marte ($5,000) is 11-41(.268) with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Andrew McCutchen ($3,700) is a subpar 17-71(.239), but he does have five walks, a double, two homers, and six RBI against Leake.
Next: More Notes For 7-5
Adam Eaton‘s ($3,800) only hit off of Masahiro Tanaka in five at bats is a solo homer. He also has a walk. Melky Cabrera ($3,200) is 3-8 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Tanaka. Avisail Garcia ($2,700) is perfect with two singles, a double, and a RBI off Tanaka.
Ryan Howard ($3,100) is 3-4 with a solo homer already off of Mike Foltynewicz.
Curtis Granderson ($3,300) is only 2-11(.182) off of Wei-Yin Chen, but both of those hits are home runs. James Loney ($3,000) is 8-24 with two doubles and a walk from his days against Chen in the AL East.
Billy Butler ($2,900) has feasted off of Tom Milone. He is 9-18 with a walk, a homer, and four RBI off of his former teammate.
For those of you chasing homers, Brad Miller, Logan Forsythe, and Logan Morrison all have a homer and two RBI off of Tim Lincecum.
Yan Gomes ($3,400) is 7-16(.438) with a walk, a double, a triple, two homers, and eight RBI against Anibal Sanchez. If he is in Cleveland’s lineup, he should be in yours too. Mike Napoli ($3,600) is 3-10 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Anibal. Carlos Santana ($4,800) is 7-25(.280) with five walks, a double, a triple, a homer, and three RBI against Sanchez.
David Ortiz ($5,600) is 3-10 with two walks, a double, and a solo homer against A.J. Griffin.
Alcides Escobar ($3,300) is 6-18 with a triple and two RBI against R.A. Dickey. Kendrys Morales ($4,800) is only 5-20 against Dickey, but he has three walks, a homer, and three RBI. Salvador Perez ($3,100) is 3-12 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer off Dickey.
Mark Teixeira ($2,900) is perfect against Carlos Rodon with a walk and a grand slam. What will he do for an encore?
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!