DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 7
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 7
Nine games make up the night tournament, giving us a larger player pool than the earlier games. There are four pitchers over $10,000, so who should you pay for? Let’s check the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Lucas Giolito allowed just three baserunners in four scoreless innings in his major league debut against the Mets on June 28th. Giolito will draw the Mets again, and maybe this time his start wont be cut short by rain. Pay attention to what DK sets Giolito’s price at. He could be a nice bargain tonight.
Adam Morgan has never faced the Rockies. His ERA is 6.31 on the year, and he hasn’t pitched at Coors Field. That should tell you all that you need to know.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($10,300): This incarnation of the Padres looks considerably different than the one Ryu faced in 2014. He is making his first major league appearance since September 12th of that year, and will most likely be on a pitch count. That said, this is the Padres, and Ryu has handled the current ones pretty well. They are 6-23(.261) against him, but have just one extra base hit, no runs, and five strikeouts. Despite the high prices, the night is kind of thin at the top. Pitch count or not, Ryu looks like the most likely to flirt with 30 DraftKings points.
Danny Duffy ($9,300): The Mariners are only hitting .250 against Duffy in 44 at bats, and they have struck out at the same clip – 25%. A couple of Mariners have managed to take him deep, but for the most part Duffy has limited damage, and he may have the best strikeout potential of anyone on the night slate.
Honorable Mention:
Rich Hill ($11,400): The only reason that Rich Hill is down here is because he will be on a pitch count, and with a team that strikes out as much as Houston does, that means Hill will be racking up a decent amount of pitches. I doubt he goes more than six innings, if he even gets that far. That said, the current Astros are hitting just 4-28(.143) against Hill with a homer, three RBI, and five strikeouts.
Dark Horses:
Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,700): Yes, Gonzalez failed to make it out of the first inning against the Twins on Saturday, but his career numbers against them aren’t as bloated as you may expect. And, opposing starter Tyler Duffey gave up five runs, so he wasn’t exactly great either. The Twins are still hitting only .238 against Chi Chi in 21 at bats. The bad news is that he only has three strikeouts. It wont take much for him to have a better outing than he did on Saturday, but he is still a considerable risk, albeit with good upside.
Chad Bettis ($4,500): This game is at Coors Field, but Bettis has fared pretty well against the Phillies so far. The Phils are 10-42(.238) against Bettis with only three runs and seven strikeouts. Those aren’t elite numbers, but they are much better than what he is priced at. His 5.85 ERA will scare some off, and while the Phillie offense has been better lately, they still aren’t that great. This gamble could pay off.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
I don’t really trust Justin Verlander against Toronto. The Jays have hit eight homers off of him in 133 at bats with a .263 average. Josh Donaldson ($5,500) is 5-13(.385) with two walks, and two RBI. Russell Martin ($3,200) is 6-18 with two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Justin Smoak ($3,200) is 5-15 with three walks, three homers, and five RBI against Verlander. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,800) is only 3-21(.143), but he has a walk, two homers, and three RBI. Fortunately for Verlander, he doesn’t have to deal with Jose Bautista, who has homered off of him twice.
The Braves don’t really hit anyone well, but Jason Hammel may be the exception. The Braves are hitting a robust .361 off of him in 108 at bats. Freddie Freeman ($5,000) is 5-11 with two walks, two homers, and five RBI off Hammel. Adonis Garcia ($2,800) is already 4-6 with a double and a solo homer. Nick Markakis ($3,600) is 9-22(.409) with a homer and five RBI. A.J. Pierzynski ($2,700) is 3-10 with a homer and two RBI against Hammel.
The Yankees are only hitting .226 against Trevor Bauer, but they have scored a whopping 16 runs in just 93 at bats. Brett Gardner ($3,300) is only 2-11, but he has five walks, both hits are doubles, and he has a pair of RBI. Chase Headley ($2,900) is also only 2-11, but he has a walk, a double, and five RBI against Bauer. Brian McCann ($3,700) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Bauer will be widely owned tonight, but as you can see, some Yankee hitters may pay off.
Next: More Notes For 7-7
Rajai Davis ($5,000) is 5-12(.417) with two walks, two doubles, and two RBI against Ivan Nova in his career. Mike Napoli ($4,400) is only 2-11, but both of those hits are home runs.
Jose Altuve ($5,200) is 1-2 with a walk and a solo homer against Rich Hill.
Yasmani Grandal ($2,800) is 3-8 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Drew Pomeranz. Adrian Gonzalez ($3,000), despite the lefty-lefty matchup, is 3-10 with a double and three RBI against Pomeranz.
Ian Kinsler ($4,200) has more RBI (four) than hits (three) off of Drew Hutchison. The Tigers are hitting .297 off of him as well.
Robinson Cano ($3,900) is 4-11 with a walk, a homer, and four RBI against Danny Duffy. Chris Iannetta ($3,200) is 2-6 with a homer and two driven in against the young lefty.
Billy Butler ($3,000) is 11-37(.297) with two walks and five RBI against Doug Fister. That said, using Butler this year is rarely worth it. Coco Crisp ($5,000) is 7-20 with two triples and a RBI off of Fister.
Both Ryan Rua ($3,700) and Robinson Chirinos ($3,700) homered against Tyler Duffey on Saturday. Can they do it again tonight?
Anthony Rendon ($4,100) is 6-19(.316) with a homer and four RBI against Bartolo Colon. Jayson Werth ($3,300) is 6-13(.462) with four walks and two doubles, but hasn’t driven in a run. Bryce Harper ($4,700) continues to struggle against Colon (3-16 or .188), but he has three walks, a homer, and two RBI if you want to gamble on him.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!