FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 7

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

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Thursday’s Main slate kicks off at 7:07PM EST with 9 games of MLB action to choose from when building your FanDuel MLB rosters!

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period	Score	Pitcher Salary	Pitcher %	Hitter %	Hitter $/Player	Value
Season	256.1	$ 8,619	25%	75%	$ 3,298	7.32
5 Day	258.7	$ 8,900	25%	75%	$ 3,263	7.39
Prev Day	253.5	$ 7,000	20%	80%	$ 3,500	7.24

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Next: Who are the top pitching options on Thursday's Slate?

The main slate on FanDuel Thursday night is not only a short slate of 9 games, but we only have two pitchers over $10k and the majority of the high priced pitchers have tough match-ups to sort through when building our FanDuel MLB rosters.

Trevor Bauer ($9,200) at home versus New York Yankees: Over the last month, no pitcher on Thursday’s slate has averaged more points per start than Bauer, putting up 45.8 points per start over the last 30 days.

Bauer is a solid home favorite (-159) and has had great career success against the current Yankee hitters, limiting them to a .224 average and only 1 home run over 76 at bats.

As only the third most expensive pitcher on the main slate, I am happy to lock in the best pitcher based off recent performance at a relatively reasonable price.

Danny Duffy ($8,800) at home versus Seattle: Over the last month, Duffy ranks second in point per game scoring behind Bauer at 42.8 points but it has been his latest two starts that jumped off the page for fantasy owners.

In his last two starts, Duffy has put up 55 points per game, striking out 8 batters in each start and going at least 8 innings against the Phillies and Cardinals.

The match-up against the Mariners is not one we would typically attack with a left hander as Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez typically mash left-handed pitching, but the Mariners do strike out at a 23% clip against LHP and Duffy has shown elite K upside in recent starts.

Pitching Summary: Bauer and Duffy to me are the top two options and frankly are interchangeable at similar price points. I will look to build lineups using both hurlers and will mix and match depending on whether I need the $400 difference as I construct my rosters. I do believe however that Duffy is the better tournament play as the match up against the Mariners can be difficult to navigate.

Next: Is there a game in Coors on Thursday?

A short slate AND a game in Coors? For those of you who read me regularly know that I try not to get cute when it comes to short slates and build the foundation of my rosters with the best match-ups and try to differentiate elsewhere. Thursday night feels like one of those nights as the Rockies welcome the Phillies to Coors Field with a game that already has an over/under of 12.5 runs.

Nolan Arenado ($4,400) at home versus LHP Adam Morgan: When Arenado is home against a LHP he becomes essentially a must play in all formats as Arenado in his career is a .347 hitter at home versus southpaws.

Carlos Correa ($2,900) and George Springer ($3,100) at home versus LHP Rich Hill: Honestly, I had to do a double take when I saw these prices for the Astros stars, as even though Rich Hill is a good pitcher, this is a discount of over $1,000 from the previous days price points.

Correa and Springer are always in play at home against left-handed pitching and although Hill has been tough on hitters so far this season, this price point gives us significant room to crush value.

Nelson Cruz ($3,100) against LHP Danny Duffy: The FanDuel pricing on the main slate hitting is fascinating to me. Nelson Cruz against a left hander is DFS 101 and even though Duffy has been brilliant lately, for $3,100 I am willing to roll the dice that Cruz does what he usually does against LHP.

Hitting Summary: With a game in Coors Field against a LHP, start all your rosters with Arenado and build from there. As noted above and you will see on the following slide, the price points for many elite hitters are depressed which considering the lack of elite pitchers is an interesting surprise that allows us to stack some of the best hitters in the game.

Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup

Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Pitcher:

More from FanSided

Catcher: Willson Contreras ($2,800) Contreras hits in the middle of the potent Cubs order and makes for an easy play at this price point

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($3,300) Another elite hitter at a reasonable price and a game in Toronto makes Miggy another top value play

Second Base: Jason Kipnis ($2,900) Kipnis under $3k against Ivan Nova? Ok then!

Third Base: Nolan Arenado ($4,400)

Shortstop: Carlos Correa ($2,900)

Outfield: George Springer ($3,100)

Outfield: Ryan Raburn ($3,300) With a LHP on the mound, Raburn should find himself in the meat of the order and makes a nice mini stack with Arenado

Outfield: Nelson Cruz ($3,100)

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!