DraftKings MLB Picks For July 8
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For July 8
All 30 teams are in action on this Friday night. There are a whopping ten of the 30 pitchers that are priced at $9,000 or more. We have to be selective. The past stats should help in that respect!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Jon Gray has never faced the Phillies, but his 8.27 career ERA at Coors Field should tell you everything. If you want the bright side, it has “shrank” to 5.05 this year.
Daniel Mengden has the worst start of his career against the Pirates on Sunday, giving up four runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings. That said, in his five starts, he has struck out at least five in every start. He will pass that against Houston again, but how many runs will he give up?
Matt Wisler has never faced the White Sox, but this is a dangerous place. The Sox are on a roll, and Wisler’s ERA has risen a full run since Memorial Day. Stay away from this.
Dan Straily has never faced the Marlins, but he has given up 20 runs in his last four starts. In a full slate, there are better options.
Sean O’Sullivan has never started against the Rays, but Evan Longoria did knock in a run against him in relief. If you are into risk taking, this is an interesting pick.
Chad Green mastered the Padres on Sunday, but the Indians are an entirely different animal. Be careful here.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Corey Kluber ($11,000): Kluber can be forgiven for being roughed up a bit by the Blue Jays. They do it to everyone. Now Kluber gets a Yankee team that he has abused. They Bombers have been grounded, hitting just .162 against Kluber in 68 at bats with two homers and six runs while striking out 19 times. Don’t be surprised if Kluber outscores everyone tonight.
Jake Arrieta ($12,700): It is no surprise to find Arrieta as the top of nearly every list. It is also no surprise that the stats back it up. Arrieta has struggled lately, but he has dominated the Pirates. The Pirates are hitting only .198 in 182 at bats with a homer, nine RBI, and an impressive 51 strikeouts. Did I mention the Cubs get to face the struggling Francisco Liriano? This looks like a big day for Arrieta.
Stephen Strasburg ($12,900): We all know that Strasburg gives up hits, but his strikeouts are what keep him among the elite daily fantasy options. Strasburg has struck out 58 Mets in 177 at bats and only allowed 15 runs despite the .237 batting average against. That is an average of more than a strikeout per inning. You will be hard pressed to find better. Right now, the Mets are struggling on offense, and Strasburg dominated the Reds in his return from the DL.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Sale ($13,500): Sale is vaulting up the boards because of his opponent. He has never faced the Braves, but the current members of the team that he has faced are only 8-46(.174) against him with a homer and five RBI, but they have struck out only six times. I expect a big game from Sale, but I don’t know if he will outscore everyone else by enough to warrant this price tag.
Jose Fernandez ($13,400): Fernandez was pounded by the Braves of all teams his last time out. That will cause a lot of people to shy away from him. The Reds are only hitting .237 against him in 38 at bats with a homer, four runs, and ten strikeouts. Those are solid enough numbers, but the higher price is a bit worrisome.
Collin McHugh ($7,500): McHugh’s career numbers against Oakland are good, but he didn’t pitch well against them back on June 4th. The A’s are still only hitting .202 in 114 at bats with three homers and ten RBI, and he has racked up 31 strikeouts. McHugh might be the best mid-range option, but I’m not convinced he will be that much better than the dark horses.
Dark Horses:
Matt Shoemaker ($6,700): Shoemaker has absolutely dominated the Orioles in his career. They are hitting a pathetic .118 in 51 at bats with 20 strikeouts. Only one player has hit him well, racking up both homers and all of the RBI. Want to know who? You will just have to stick around! Shoemaker struck out 12 Orioles in 7.1 innings back on May 21st. Use him with confidence, especially against Ubaldo Jimenez.
Hisashi Iwakuma ($6,500): Ventura has struggled this year. While Iwakuma has as well, he has handled Kansas City pretty well. They are hitting .233 against him in 86 at bats with only two homers and three RBI to go with 20 strikeouts. The injured Mike Moustakas has one of those homers and two of the RBI. Salvador Perez has the other solo shot. That is his only hit in nine at bats. Things are lining up nicely for Iwakuma here, and those who dare to use him.
Yordano Ventura ($4,900): First thing first, Ventura got slammed by the Mariners back on April 30th, giving up five runs. However, the Mariners are still only hitting .183 against Ventura in 71 at bats with 17 strikeouts. The bad news? They have four homers and 11 RBI. As if his 5.26 ERA isn’t enough reason to panic. At any rate, if you have faith he can get back to the Ventura of old, he had really good career marks against Seattle going into that April 30th game.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The Red Sox, a few in particular, have pounded on Chris Archer. Mookie Betts ($5,200) is 4-16 with six walks, a double, two homers, and six RBI. Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) is 6-16(.375) with a walk, a double, and a RBI against Archer. David Ortiz ($5,300) is 12-31(.387) with four walks, four doubles, two homers, and a whopping 15 RBI against Archer.
No matter who starts at catcher for the Padres, they have you covered. Christian Bethancourt and Derek Norris have both homered off of Scott Kazmir. Alexei Ramirez ($2,100) is 8-26(.308) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, and six RBI against Kazmir. Adam Rosales ($2,600) is 9-25(.360) with four walks, a homer, and three RBI. Melvin Upton Jr. ($4,200) is only 2-11, but those hits are a homer and a double and he has driven in two.
J.A. Happ was thumped in his other start against Detroit on June 6th. Nick Castellanos ($4,700) is 4-8 with a walk, a double, a triple, and a RBI. Ian Kinsler ($4,400) is 4-13(.308) with a walk, a triple, a homer, and three RBI against Happ. James McCann ($2,700) is 3-6 with a double, a homer, and five RBI. Justin Upton ($2,300) has pounded Happ. He is 4-6 with two walks, a triple, a homer, and four RBI. He is an absurd bargain at that price!
Francisco Liriano got hammered by the Cubs on May 13th. You want to stack them again! Kris Bryant ($5,500) is 4-9 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI off of Liriano. Jason Heyward ($3,300) is only 4-14(.286), but he has five walks to go with his four singles and RBI. Addison Russell ($4,300) is 2-8 with three walks, a homer, and three RBI. Ben Zobrist ($4,600) is only 5-20, but he has two walks, a triple, and an impressive six RBI.
Nelson Cruz ($4,900) is only 2-9 against Yordano Ventura, but he has two walks, a homer, and three RBI. Ketel Marte ($3,200) is already 3-4 against Yordano with a triple and two RBI. Seth Smith ($4,800) is 3-9 with a double, a triple, and a solo homer off of Ventura. Kyle Seager ($4,900) is only 1-7, but that hit is a three run homer and he has walked three times.
Billy Butler ($2,800) is 3-10 with a walk and a solo homer against Collin McHugh. It was Butler’s first homer of the season on June 4th. Marcus Semien ($3,600) is 5-11 with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI against McHugh. Danny Valencia ($3,600) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Josh Reddick ($3,600) is only 2-15(.133), but he has a double, a homer, and two RBI.
Kole Calhoun ($4,500) is 3-12 with a walk, a double, and two RBI against Ubaldo Jimenez. Yunel Escobar ($4,500) is 10-26(.385) with six walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Daniel Nava ($3,200) is 4-12 with two walks, three doubles, and four RBI. He deserves a shot if he plays. Albert Pujols ($4,700) is 8-28(.286) with five walks, two doubles, a homer and nine RBI against Ubaldo.
Next: More Notes For 7-8
Just because Jake Arrieta is on the mound doesn’t mean every Pirate is off limits. One in particular has hit him well. Matt Joyce ($3,100) is 7-20 with two walks, two doubles, a home run, and four RBI against the Cubs ace.
Elvis Andrus ($3,700) is 4-13(.308) with a homer and three RBI against Kyle Gibson. Robinson Chirinos ($3,500) is 4-5 with a solo shot against Gibson.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,700) is 11-32(.344) with five walks, a double, four homers, and six RBI off of Andrew Cashner. Justin Turner ($4,000) is 5-8 with two doubles and a RBI.
Adam Jones ($4,500) is the only Oriole who has had any kind of success against Matt Shoemaker. Jones is 3-9 with two homers and four RBI. That is all of the homers and RBI accumulated against Shoemaker by the whole team!
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,800) is 7-20 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Mike Pelfrey. Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson have also taken Pelfrey deep, but have otherwise hit poorly against him.
Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI against Stephen Strasburg. Travis d’Arnaud ($2,400) is 4-10 with two walks, a homer, and three RBI. Neil Walker ($2,900) is 6-17(.353) with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Can they get to him tonight?
Jimmy Nelson will be glad that he doesn’t have to face Matt Carpenter, who has a homer and five RBI off of him. The bad news? His Cardinal teammates still have 14 RBI off of him in 91 at bats. Jhonny Peralta ($3,700) is 5-13 with a double and three RBI. Kolten Wong ($3,200) is 5-16(.313) with a double, a triple, a homer, and four RBI off Nelson.
Nick Markakis ($2,100) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, and three RBI off of Chris Sale. Jeff Francoeur ($2,200) is a miserable 3-21(.143), but he has three walks, a homer, and two RBI.
Carlos Gonzalez ($5,300) is 1-3 with a two run homer against Vince Velasquez. That was in Philadelphia last year. This one it at Coors!
Anthony Rendon ($3,500) has actually hit Noah Syndergaard well. Rendon is 5-12(.417) with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Thor. Bryce Harper ($4,100) is 4-13(.308) against Syndergaard, but all of the hits are singles and he has only one RBI. It will be hard for him to be worth the price unless he starts getting extra bases.
Brett Gardner ($3,100) is 2-6 with a homer and three RBI against Corey Kluber. He is the only one that has managed to hit him well so far.
Michael Bourn ($3,600) is 9-20 with a walk, four doubles, and a RBI off of Jeff Samardzija. Jean Segura ($4,200) is 7-26(.269) with four RBI.
Brian Dozier ($4,400) is 3-7 with a walk, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Cole Hamels. The Twins chased Hamels after only four innings on Sunday, and are now hitting .340 against him.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!