Fantasy Football 2016: Would You Rather Have Todd Gurley or David Johnson?
It’s that wonderful time of year again when we can finally start getting back into football and prepping for the upcoming fantasy football season.
Heading into the 2016 season there are many fantasy puzzles that need to be solved and if you just so happen to have a mid-round pick in the first round of your draft and want to take a running back, you are going to have a very tough decision to make – Toddy Gurley or David Johnson?
Gurley has an average ADP of 4th overall and Johnson has an ADP of 7th overall in standard leagues.
As expected, Le’Veon Bell is usually the first RB taken in almost all drafts, whether that’s standard or PPR. Todd Gurley is the second RB taken and David Johnson is the third.
Yes, I am going to ignore old man “All-Day” Adrian Peterson. I know there are some people out there who will still take Peterson as the second RB chosen, thinking that it’s still 2013, but it isn’t, an even though Peterson had a good year last year, he’s now past 30 years old and father time is going to come knocking on his door this year.
So now that we have that out-of-the-way, back to Gurley vs. Johnson.
Right now, Gurley has an average ADP (Average Draft Position) of 4th overall and Johnson has an ADP of 7th overall in standard leagues.
The really interesting this is that Gurley is still being drafted ahead of Johnson in PPR leagues where Gurley is going 5th overall and Johnson is 7th overall according to Fantasy Pros, who combine the ADP from a variety of sites like ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, FFC, MFL etc.
So who should you draft? Let’s take a closer look at the pros and cons of each player before we get to the verdict.
Next: Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley
PROS: Quickly name another running back on the LA Rams roster? It’s still weird typing LA Rams instead of St. Louis Rams. Now that you’ve had time to think about it, some of you may have had to do a quick Google search, while others may have easily said Tre Mason because they had Mason on their fantasy team last year and watched him average a pathetic 2.3 fantasy points per game last year. Right now it’s Benny Cunningham currently sits second the RB depth chart for the Rams, just in case you were wondering.
Gurley, on the other hand, is coming off a season where he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year, led all rookies with 1,106 rushing yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored ten rushing touchdowns. He even added 21 catches for 188 yards.
Gurley IS the Rams offense. If the Rams are going to do anything this year, it will be because of Gurley.
He should easily see 20+ touches per game and will see his role in the passing game increase this season. A 1,300-yard rushing, 400 yard receiving with over 12 total touchdowns
CONS: Quickly name two wide receivers on the Rams? Yeah, that’s not easy either. There’s Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Kenny Britt and a whole bunch of other guys. No one that strikes fear in opposing defenses.
Then there’s the fact that the Rams will be breaking in a rookie quarterback in Jared Goff, who will be facing a ton of pressure after being the 1st overall draft pick in this year’s draft and leading a team that is finally back in Los Angeles.
Oh and the Rams offense was terrible last year. They only ran 920 plays all year and averaged only 5.2 yards per play. They also managed to only scored 17.5 points per game, good for 29th in the league.
The only difference between the 2015 Rams and the 2016 Rams (other than where they’ll play), is rookie quarterback Jared Goff.
While Goff is an improvement over Case Keenum, he won’t stop opposing defenses from stacking the box and doing everything possible to make sure that Gurley doesn’t beat them.
Gurley is great, but can he be that good?
Next: David Johnson
David Johnson
PROS: Heading into the 2015 season there were rumblings that the best running back to come out of the 2015 draft was David Johnson, who was taken in the 3rd round (86th overall) by the Cardinals.
Through training camp and into the early parts of the season, those rumblings grew louder and louder, but Johnson couldn’t see the field because head coach Bruce Arians likes his veteran guys and was going to run Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington out there until their legs fell off.
Then, finally in week 13, Johnson got his chance and instantly entered fantasy football lore has many lucky fantasy owners rode him to fantasy glory.
Johnson finished as the No. 7 Fantasy running back in standard league with 125 carries for 584 yards and eight touchdowns and 36 catches for 457 yards and four touchdowns. That’s good for 18.2 fantasy points per game in standard leagues (way higher in PPR) and he did it in only five games.
Heading into the 2016 season, the Cardinals project to be one of the best offensives in the league with Carson Palmer leading an offensive full of talent such as wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown.
Johnson shouldn’t see many eight man boxes and will see plenty of open space in the flat, which makes him a stud in PPR leagues.
Getting 1,100 rushing yards with 60+ catches for over 600 yards and 10+ touchdowns seems pretty attainable for Johnson in 2016.
CONS: If Johnson was going to be the “bell cow” that head coach Bruce Arians says he will be in 2016, why did the Cardinals resign Chris Johnson? Plus, everyone’s supposed breakout fantasy star of 2014 and 2015, Andre Ellington, is still on the team.
There’s also consistent rumors floating around out there that Johnson might not be the true feature back that we’re hoping him to be.
Cardinals.com’s Darren Urban is on record as stating that he believes that “there will be a place” for each of the teams three running backs and that both Chris Johnson and Ellington will be parts of the offense.
Other reports out there suggest that David Johnson might only see 60 percent of the team’s snaps, leaving 30 percent for Chris Johnson and 10 percent Andre Ellington.
This might sound crazy, but where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire and never forget that head coach Bruce Arians puts all his trust in his veteran players.
Next: So Who Wins?
VERDICT
It’s a tie.
Just kidding, but it’s really close. I’m taking David Johnson over Todd Gurley in every draft I’m in, if that’s the position I’m in.
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Why?
Fantasy championship are won in weeks 14, 15 and 16 and I’m not sure that Todd Gurley will be anywhere near 100% come the end of the season after the volume (and beating) he’s about to get.
Johnson will probably see less touches, but he plays in a far greater offense that has so many weapons that opposing defenses don’t game plan just to stop Johnson the way they do for Gurley.
The other fact is that the Rams are still going to have to play catch up a lot late in games, which will minimize Gurley’s value as the Rams will need Jared Goff to score points, not Gurley.
Plus, I believe Johnson has the higher ceiling of the two, especially in PPR leagues, where Johnson could catch over 75 balls this year.
In the end, the difference between the two might be 10 total fantasy points, but remember that every point counts and you only have to win by 0.1 points (if you’re league does decimals) and David Johnson provides you with the best opportunity to win each week.