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MLB All-Star Game: Has home-field advantage really mattered?

By Nathaniel Reeves

Aug 24, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; A general view of the 2015 All Star Game logo during the eighth inning in the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park. The Reds defeated the Braves 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 24, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; A general view of the 2015 All Star Game logo during the eighth inning in the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park. The Reds defeated the Braves 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports /
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Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game will again determine home-field advantage in the World Series, but how often has that really made a difference?

One of the most exciting events of any baseball regular season is nearly upon us, as the 2016 MLB All-Star Game is just days away. However, the Midsummer Classic also brings its fair share of controversy year after year.

The top players from the American League and National League will square off at Petco Park on Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern in the 87th edition of the Midsummer Classic. As has been the case since the infamous tie in 2002, the winning league will receive home-field advantage in this year’s World Series.

While MLB was trying to make the game count for something, many feel it is pretty ridiculous to have a mostly unrelated roster that was determined partly by fan voting play on behalf of another team. Home-field advantage seems like a critical thing to have in any World Series, but it’s fair to ask how much of a difference, if any, it really makes.

As far as the four major sports go, home teams in baseball are typically viewed as having the smallest advantage, as crowd noise may not factor in as much. The winning percentage for home teams in the MLB has hovered around 52 to 55 percent in recent regular seasons, which is a lower than the NBA or NFL.

No MLB team has a home fortress like the Seattle Seahawks, and the nature of baseball doesn’t allow a club to match the .975 home winning percentage the San Antonio Spurs put up at home this year. Still, every once in a while a game comes up where the baseball home crowd makes a noticeable difference – the Pittsburgh Pirates serenading Johnny Cueto in the 2013 NL Wild Card Game comes to mind.

Since the All-Star rule was implemented in 2003, the AL has won 10 All-Star Games to the NL’s three. Over that same span, the NL has a 7-6 advantage in the World Series, while teams with home field have a mark of 9-4.

The only teams to lose with home-field advantage were the 2003 New York Yankees, the 2006 Detroit Tigers, the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays and the 2015 Kansas City Royals. Of course, there are too many factors in every Wold Series to exactly measure how much home field did or did not matter, but based just on recent records it seems to have some impact.

Perhaps the World Series where the home field has made the biggest difference was the 2012 Fall Classic between the Tigers and San Francisco Giants. Detroit entered the series as a massive favorite due to a big talent advantage on paper, but looked lifeless in the first two games at AT&T Park and went on to get swept.

Home field could make an even bigger impact in certain individual matchups depending on team construction. For example, the All-Star Game could determine if the Boston Red Sox have to play David Ortiz in the field for four games instead of three, or if a right-handed-dominant NL team will need to adjust its lineup more often to fit Fenway Park. Clubs tailor their strengths to their home stadium, and that advantage could be lost in the World Series due to something out of their control.

Those factors add up to make a small yet meaningful difference, which could be critical in a short series against an elite team. Baseball home field advantage isn’t huge, but teams in playoff races should still be rooting hard for their league on Tuesday.

For more MLB All-Star Game coverage, check out our baseball hub page. 

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