College Football Preview: Top 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks
By Matt Rogers
College Football Preview is a ‘way too early’ look at each College Football position heading into the 2016 season. The rankings are based on prior performance and expectations heading into the 2016 season.
While we watch the mid-summer classic, MLB All-Star game, or continue to flip through sports channels in desperation for any live sports, now is a good time to begin thinking about your college football draft, with the 2016 College Football season only weeks away.
The 2016 Division I-A season kicks off Friday, August 26th, in a unique way, at 10pm ET in the ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Australia. The game is between the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii and the California Golden Bears. The remaining games of Week 1 play through the Labor Day weekend, starting on Thursday, September 1st and ending with a great one between the Ole Miss Rebels and Florida State Seminoles in the Citrus Bowl at 8pm ET on Labor Day, Monday, September 5th.
So with games beginning only six weeks away, we’ll begin our College Football Preview with the top 5 player options at each position, starting with Quarterback. Let’s take a look:
Next: CFB Fantasy QB No. 5
No. 5 J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
With J.T. Barrett now the sole focus behind Center, for the Ohio State Buckeyes, Barrett is set up for a very good season, no longer sharing snap counts. Barrett was arguably the Buckeyes best signal caller in the 2015 season, but Cardale Jones, a 2016 4th round pick of the Buffalo Bills, made a surprise start at the beginning of the season against the Virginia Tech Hokies. Jones looked OK against the Hokies, but struggled the rest of the season, with only 8 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Barrett took over as QB#1 against Rutgers on Oct 24th, mid-way through the season, and had an excellent game passing for 3 TD’s and no INTs, along with 223 yards and a 77.8% completion percentage on only 18 attempts. However, after the Rutgers game, J.T. struggled throwing the ball, and mostly excelled with his feet, completing the season with 682 rushing yards and 11 rushing TD’s. So Barrett appears to be more comfortable using his legs than sitting in the pocket.
My biggest concern with Barrett, and really the hurdle for J.T. being a top 3 Fantasy QB, is the lack of proven talent around him in 2016. Last season, Ohio State had converted wide receiver Braxton Miller and round one pick for the Dallas Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott (RB), on the offensive side of the field allowing Barrett to move around as needed. Barrett doesn’t appear to have the same type of talent surrounding him this season, and could try to force production, causing him to make too many costly mistakes. But Barrett is now in his third season for the Buckeyes and if he keeps a cool head on most snaps, he could pile up points as the best offensive option for a very good football team.
Next: CFB Fantasy QB No. 4
No. 4 Luke Falk, Washington State
If college football fans haven’t heard of Luke Falk, they should know who he is by the end of the 2016 season, and NFL fans in the 2017 Draft. Since returning to the head coaching position in 2012, Mike Leach has developed the once impotent Washington State Cougars offensive into one of the most dangerous offensive units in college football. Leach’s spread offense relies heavily on the passing game, one of Mike’s Quarterbacks was once the number one overall NFL draft pick, Tim Couch. Once Leach took over at Washington State, his first goal was to find a Quarterback who would fit nicely into his gun-slinging QB role, enter Luke Falk.
Luke was actually a walk-on for the 2013 Cougars team, but re-shirted his first season. Falk later started three games in the 2014 season, completing the year with 1,859 yards, a 64.2% completion percentage, 13 TD’s, and 7 INT’s. Not a bad start to his college football career, but not a great one either. However, in 2015, Luke quickly emerged to become one of the best passers at the collegiate level, completing around 70% (69.4%) of his CFB leading 644 passing attempts for 4,561 yards, 5th among all QB’s in 2015, 38 TD’s, 4th among all QB’s in 2015, and only 8 INTs over the 644 attempts (1.2 INT’s every 100 attempts). If Falk actually improves this season as a passer, he’ll easily become the best passer in college football. However, like many of Leach’s teams in the past, Washington State will likely continue to lean heavily on it’s gun-slinging to win football games, and not provide enough balance on the defensive side of the ball. This could wear Falk down, and there’s certainly injury risk with so many passing attempts each year. Falk had 37 sacks last season, 6th among all QB’s, but also behind other really good QB’s on really good teams like Baker Mayfield (39) and Cody Kessler (38). If Falk can stay healthy and grow this season, he’ll become a top 3 QB. But regardless, he’s a great option.
Next: CFB Fantasy QB No. 3
No. 3 Greg Ward Jr, Houston
Like Luke Falk, our number 3 ranked QB is a Cougar. Unlike Falk, Greg Ward Jr. will not stay in the pocket long. Leading the Houston Cougars, during the 2015 season, in both passing yards (2,828) and rushing yards (1,108), Ward was literally a dual threat quarterback for Houston. Entering his senior year for the Cougars, the under-sized 5′ 11′ 185 lbs quarterback from Texas is not, usually, what you may have in mind for a top 3 Fantasy College Football QB. Ward isn’t the tall and strong armed QB you see sitting in the pocket scanning the field for his next sharp-shooting target, but if you don’t respect Ward’s vision and arm, he’ll burn you with a quick throw downfield. Also, while Greg may see small, if you’re not protecting the middle part of the field, he’ll quickly show you how fast a missed assignment can lead to a rushing touchdown.
By the end of the 2015 season, Ward had a combined 3,936 yards. Greg consistently completes 67% of his passes, a stat he has maintained for over two years now with the Cougars. Ward also had 17 passing touchdowns and only 6 INTs in 345 passing attempts, 1.7 per 100 attempts. When bringing the ball down to run, Greg averaged 5.6 yards per run, after 198 attempts, and 21 rushing touchdowns, 5th among all college football running backs, between LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Arkansas’s Alex Collins, impressive company. Ward is arguably a top 10 running back this year, if he weren’t starting directly behind center. So while Luke Falk had 38 TD’s passing, Ward had 37 total TD’s combined. Also, Ward ended the season on a high-note, beating Florida State in the Peach Bowl after an outstanding 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TD performance. Look for Greg Ward Jr. to only get better this year and to be one oft he best Duel-Threat QB options in CFB.
Next: CFB Fantasy QB No. 2
No. 2 Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
With all of the hype around players like Trevone Boykin, Baker Mayfield, and Seth Russell in the 2015 season for the Big 12 conference, it was easy for Patrick Mahomes to go relatively unnoticed at the helm for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The 20-year old son of former MLB Veteran Pat Mahomes, has an impressive arm. Patrick Mahomes even considered going pro for baseball, but decided to pursue a college football career first. It’s clear Patrick inherited his father’s strong arm. There was a video surfacing through social media, recently, of Patrick throwing a football over 60 yards, from his knees. Mahomes also likes to end his pre-game warm-ups with an 85 yard rope down field to get him ready for his gunslinging.
At the end of Mahomes 2015 season, he had completed 63.5% of his 573 pass attempts for 4,653 total passing yards, 36 TD’s, and 15 INT’s. Patrick’s completion percentage and high number of picks tells us he has room to grow, but Mahomes is still very young and has tremendous upside. Also, Kliff Kingsbury’s high-power offense will provide Patrick will ample opportunity to continue to get comfortable slinging the ball downfield, something he does very well. What makes Patrick more intriguing than Falk or Ward, is that while he is a top passing talent, he’s also proven to be very capable on his feet as well. Mahomes also rushed fro 456 yards, averaging 3.5 yards/carry, and had 10 rushing TD’s, totaling 46 touchdowns in 2015.
If Patrick can continue to get better, mostly focusing on accuracy and comfort under pressure, he’ll not only be a top fantasy QB option, but also one of the best QB options entering next year’s draft. The Red Raiders do appear to have some weakness on the offensive line, Mahomes was sacked 6 times against an incredible LSU D-line in the Texas Bowl, but the Red Raiders O-line should be getting better this season as well. Mahomes is a top fantasy QB talent if he can replicate his 2015 season, but with a few minor improvements, he’s an elite fantasy option.
Next: CFB Fantasy QB No. 1
No. 1 Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Hardly anyone will be surprised with Deshaun Watson as the number one overall fantasy QB option, and honestly he’s the number one QB option, regardless of fantasy, and is one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy. Watson came in third last year in voting for the Heisman. Derrick Henry (now with the Tennessee Titans) won the trophy and Christian McCaffrey, the outstanding running back from Stanford, placed second in the voting. Watson and McCaffrey should be an interesting race this year.
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In a way, Watson is a combination of Patrick Mahomes and Greg Ward Jr. For the 2015 season, Deshaun had 4,104 passing yards with a 67.8% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, and 13 INT’s. On the ground, Watson rushed for 1,105 yards and 12 touchdowns. In Deshaun’s last game, the national championship loss to Alabama (40-45), Watson had 405 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 INT. He also had 73 yards on the ground. These are fantastic statistics considering he’s facing an elite Crimson Tide defense. To think that Watson can grow from here is almost inconsiderable, but it’s possible. Deshaun is the ultimate dual-threat quarterback playing in a system designed well for his talents. If Watson continues to be healthy, he’s by far the best option at QB for your Fantasy CFB team.